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ruby_spoon

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Lottery for a familiar - WINNERS ANNOUNCED!

Seriously! You could win a familiar for 1 P.o.E! Or you could buy more than one ticket...



---------------------------------------------------------------
Current event status:
It's over! Winners posted here. Arrrrrrrr!

---------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE!

Some people have paid for tickets but failed to prove they are subscribers. Other people have paid for tickets in two (or more) separate payments, even though I only take the total. I have posted (and will continue to update) a list of people that have done either of these here, so if you are in any doubt about whether your payment worked or not please check for your name there.

I have also posted a more detailed example of how the ticket system works here

---------------------------------------------------------------

What: Lottery for a familiar
When: Tickets are available 29th and 30th July: draw will take place 2nd of August
Where: Across the Cobalt ocean
For Whom: Any subscriber with a few coins to their name and a desire for a familiar
By Whom: Rubyspoon and Apostrophe
Prizes: First prize is a blue octopus, second prize is all the money made from selling tickets


almost ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Buy your tickets from Rubyspoon or Apostrophe between the hours of 1am and 4pm PDT on either Saturday the 29th or Sunday the 30th of July.
  • To buy <x> tickets, type "/pay rubyspoon <x>" (for example, "/pay rubyspoon 10").
  • Because of the system described below, buying many tickets does not necessarily mean you will have a greater chance of winning!
  • Once you have paid, we will check to see if you are (or ever have been) subscribed. If you are ranked higher than Cabin Person this in itself will prove it, and we can see this from your pirate info page. If you have a portrait of yourself wearing a piece of subscriber-only clothing (see the wiki clothing entry to check) this will also prove it. If not, we will ask you to join or start a parlour game that is not free on that day (see the wiki free days list to check) to confirm that you are a subscriber. If you cannot prove that you are a subscriber in either of these ways then we will refund your money. Somebody's word that you were once subscribed is not good enough!
  • We will write down your name and how many tickets you bought, but you will not receive any kind of receipt, I'm afraid. You just have to trust us - but see the next point.
  • On Monday 31st July I will post the list of everyone that has bought a ticket and how many they bought, along with which ticket numbers they have. If you think you have been missed off you can post or PM me and I and Apostrophe will double-check our logs.
  • A UK National Lottery draw takes place on Wednesday the 2nd of August. This will determine the winners.


THE SYSTEM
I didn't want to limit the number of tickets available, but I also didn't want it to be like an auction where poor pirates don't stand a chance while rich ones buy half a million tickets. For this reason I will be using the following system.

When all tickets have been bought, I will write down a list of people that bought tickets, ordered by quantity. Those that bought the fewest tickets will be first on the list, those that bought the most will be at the bottom. Those that bought the same number of tickets will be ordered randomly amonst themselves. It does not matter when you bought your tickets, only how many you bought! Note that if you use one character to buy tickets on separate occasions, we will only count your overall total number of tickets purchased, so it is not possible to gain an advantage in that way.

I will count down the list, starting with those that bought the fewest tickets, until I reach the 10,000th ticket. Each of these tickets will be numbered from 1 to 10,000. ALL REMAINING TICKETS WILL NOT COUNT AT ALL!

In the (unlikely?) event that less than 10,000 tickets are sold, whoever is last on the list (i.e. whoever bought the most tickets) gets all the remaining ones for free. In the (unlikely!) event that a group of pirates tied for ticket amount go over the 10,000 mark, the tickets available to that group will be split evenly between them, and any tickets left over (because of rounding) assigned randomly.

This means that the more tickets you buy, the more chances you have to win, but the greater your risk of coming below the 10,000 mark on the list and thus having no chance at all. For example, if you buy just 10 tickets (which would cost you 10 poe) then you have a 1 in 1000 chance of winning, and are very likely to be in the top part of the list. If you buy 1000 tickets (which would cost you 1000 poe) you might expect to have a 1 in 10 chance of winning, but it is very likely that some or all of your tickets will go beyond the 10,000 mark and so your chances will drop or even disappear.

Here is an example where the critical number is 10 instead of 10,000. Alice buys 1 ticket, Bob buys 3 tickets, Charles buys 5 tickets, Daniel buys 8 tickets and Edwina buys 10. I would then write down the following list:

Name ticket numbers
Alice 1
Bob 2,3,4
Charles 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Daniel 10
Edwina none

Despite buying 8 tickets, Daniel only ends up with 1, because the ticket numbers hit the limit before reaching the rest of his. Edwina bought 10 tickets, but ended up with none, since all 10 available tickets went before we reached her on the list!

For a more detailed example see this post.

THE DRAW
The Lotto results of August 2nd will consist of seven randomly drawn balls each with a 2-digit number; you will be able to see the results of this draw at the official website. We consider only the second digit of each. The winner will be the holder of the ticket with the number corresponding to the second digits of the first 4 balls; second place goes to the holder of the ticket corresponding to the last 4 balls (which means the middle ball gets used twice).

For example, if the numbers drawn were 02, 09, 14, 30, 31, 35 and 47, the Familiar would go to the holder of ticket number 2940 and the poe would go to the holder of ticket number 0157. To see a screenshot illustrating another example, see the post after next, further down this page.

WHY?!
I like taking part in familiar competitions, even though I have already won them in the past. I gave away my first excess familiar in an 'ultimate duty puzzle contest', which one pirate described as the most elite contest they had ever seen. I won this blue octopus in the distilling bake-off, and the plan is to give it away in one of the least elite contests there has ever been. The idea is that these are both events that people would like to take part in, but not the kind that the OMs would usually run.




Official disclaimer: Please note that this event, as with any lottery or raffle, is run at the risk of the participants. If there is shown to be cheating or wrongdoing, the culprit will be punished, but no poe will be returned to participants affected. Please only enter if you trust the person or people hosting the event. You can trust me, right? :)

Edits: clarifying things in response to questions in this thread. Then to put up and down the tickets on sale sign, and add updates. Yikes, this poor post is being edited to death.
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Rubyspoon: [Midnight] BSP, Looterati; [Viridian] OD, Morrowind.
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[Edit 24 times, last edit by ruby_spoon at Aug 2, 2006 3:39:03 PM]
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Sagacious

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

The whole 'draw' system is very confusing, and to some extent makes no sense.
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Cerulean & Meridian - Icemeister
Emerald & Obsidian - incognito!
#TeamPurple
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Sagacious at Jul 14, 2006 3:14:37 AM]
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ruby_spoon

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Okay, I'll try to explain the draw more clearly.

The UK National Lottery results can be viewed here. Here's an example of how it works:



The second digit of the first four balls creates the number 8067, outlined in blue. For the last four balls you get 7895, outlined in green.

The pool of balls they are drawn from consists of the numbers 01 through to 49. By taking the second digit, we get a random number from 0 to 9. (Pedantry note - there is one less 0 than everything else, so lower numbered tickets are marginally less likely to come up!).

In this way, we generate a random number between 1 and 10,000. Ticket number 10,000 itself corresponds to '0000' coming up, of course.
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Rubyspoon: [Midnight] BSP, Looterati; [Viridian] OD, Morrowind.
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Sagacious

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Well, I was more confused on the issue of the fact you can buy so many tickets and yet not be entered on each ticket? Makes little to no sense...you buy a ticket, you thus have 1 chance in X tickets of winning. Buy 10, you have 10 in X tickets of winning. X tickets being the total number of tickets sold. Why limit at 10k?
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Cerulean & Meridian - Icemeister
Emerald & Obsidian - incognito!
#TeamPurple
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Sagacious at Jul 14, 2006 3:56:05 AM]
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Tantalus90

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Nice one Ruby

So good to see a familiar being given away , not for being best at something but just because you can.

Elitism is not always the best way forward, common sense means most people will not be in the elite and that kinda makes the game a bit unfair sometimes

I totally endorse this idea for sharing out familiars

Tant
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Tantalus on Cobalt
Tantan on Hunter
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rixation

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Since I'm not a math whiz, I have a question regarding this:
 
The winner will be the holder of the ticket with the number corresponding to the second digits of the first 4 balls

How many possible combinations are there? Is it below 10,000, since that's the ticket limit? What happens in the event that the numbers do not match and no one wins?

Also, if I were to pay you 10k PoE for 10k tickets, but the 10k tickets had already been claimed by lower-bidders (since people will clearly be opting to bid in 1k-2k increments), it is implied but not explicitly stated, I will not receive a refund? Also, what's to stop alts from placing several bids of 600 tickets each? That gives the leverage of lower bids, but with 3 subscribed accounts, each with 3 pirates, a total of 50% of all available tickets. Just a thought.
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Epimetheus
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Kucey0

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Ruby, this is like the first event I've been happy to read, I give you guys credit on all the hard work planning this out, but just to throw this out to people it may concern...What happens if there not home on the days to buy tickets, can they pre-order it and put them into the contest but put them in somewhere randomly to give them still a equal chance? Or is it tough luck for them?

I will be sure to enter this contest, seems really cool.

Nice work!
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Deeogee

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brazzy

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

 
Since I'm not a math whiz, I have a question regarding this:
 
The winner will be the holder of the ticket with the number corresponding to the second digits of the first 4 balls

How many possible combinations are there? Is it below 10,000, since that's the ticket limit?


There are *exactly* 10,000 possible combinations, although those including one or (especially) more zeroes are a bit less likely to come up than the others.
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Sagacious

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

I think the system is far more complex than it need be. The 10,000 limit makes no sense, and just means the 2nd place winner can only win 10k max. But hey, it's your show.
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Cerulean & Meridian - Icemeister
Emerald & Obsidian - incognito!
#TeamPurple
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Sagacious at Jul 14, 2006 5:29:27 AM]
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VPeric

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

That's a really ingenious way to run a lottery! I hope you won't mind if I steal it sometime. ;)

EDIT: No, the second place winner could win a bunch of money; don't forget that the people who got cut-off due to the "rule" don't get their money refunded (at least, that's how I understand it), so it could end up being much more than 10k.
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Wlada, Former King of Bloody Hell and former Captain of Sudden Death, Cobalt.
Vlada, Officer of the Rudder Royals, Azure.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by VPeric at Jul 14, 2006 5:32:06 AM]
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Hohumdiddly

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Sagacious wrote: 
I think the system is far more complex than it need be. The 10,000 limit makes no sense, and just means the 2nd place winner can only win 10k max.


I think this isn't that complex of a system. The first four numbers, you take the second digit of each number, and that is the winning number. The last four numbers, you take the second digit of each number and that is the second prize.

With her system of ticket numbering, there could also be more than a 10k purse. If i understand this correctly, she will take all the people who have bought 1 ticket first, and number those. She will then take all the people who have bought 2 tickets, and number those. This will go on and on until the 10,000 ticket has been numbered. After the 10,000th ticket, all the tickets after this will not be entered into the lottery. This is a great idea, so the people who don't have millions of poe lying around to buy up tons of ticket actually have a chance.

Hohum (always makes me feel better to see unused familiars given away, only hope some of those tan familiars won by MN'ers will be given the same way or at least sold)
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Mazi says, "and i have freckles"
Mazi says, "and i turn into a big freckle when exposed to rays of light"
Prosperity says, "I get cute little freckles on my nosey"
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kenneh

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Of course, the format could easily be altered to allow for 100,000 tickets, using balls 1,2,3,4,5 and 3,4,5,6,7

Overall though, Bravo! Looking forward to it :D
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Sink
the closest some pirates will ever get to the real thing.
 
yah not a frig, sum peeple ar so stupid!!!

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coolj31

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

It's nice to see an even that's actually making us think. Or in my case be confused. Great idea!
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Senior Officer of the Band of Drunken Rouges
Prince of the Ethereal Rogues.
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Chaoslord of Midnight
Captain of the Drunk Rogues
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Sagacious

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Time to make about 500 alts then and buy them a ticket each o_O
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Hohumdiddly

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

 
Time to make about 500 alts then and buy them a ticket each o_O


As it says in the OP, they have to be subscribed or been subscribed at some point to be allowed to enter. This prevents actions such as this from happening.

Hohum
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Mazi says, "and i have freckles"
Mazi says, "and i turn into a big freckle when exposed to rays of light"
Prosperity says, "I get cute little freckles on my nosey"
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rixation

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

 
 
Time to make about 500 alts then and buy them a ticket each o_O

As it says in the OP, they have to be subscribed or been subscribed at some point to be allowed to enter. This prevents actions such as this from happening.
Hohum

Except for people with several subscribed accounts. I know 2 people with 6 subscribed accounts each, for a total of 36 subscribed pirates. They could quite easily get a vast majority of the tickets if they play it right.
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brazzy

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

 
I think this isn't that complex of a system. The first four numbers,


I doubt anyone thinks the drawing method is too compley, only the cutoff at 10,000.

 
After the 10,000th ticket, all the tickets after this will not be entered into the lottery. This is a great idea, so the people who don't have millions of poe lying around to buy up tons of ticket actually have a chance.


Then why allow people to buy multiple tickets at all?

If it's supposed to be in the name of equal chances for poor pirates, just enter everyone who sends a /pay, irrelevant of the sum, with equal chances to win.

It's not obvious, and I'm not sure Rubyspoon was aware of it when she came up with the idea, but the cutoff basically means it's a mindfuck, just like Shur's "lowest unique /tip". Buy too few tickets and your chances to win are small. Buy too many, and your chances disappear entirely. There is no optimal strategy. You have to guess how many other people will enter, and how much each of them will pay. Major potential to be upset about making the wrong decision afterwards.
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Trevorius

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

1. Fantastic. I lub it.
2. Kinda confusing, but after a 2nd read-through, I lub it more.

Respect ++

Edit:
Brazzy wrote: 
It's not obvious, and I'm not sure Rubyspoon was aware of it when she came up with the idea, but the cutoff basically means it's a mindfuck, just like Shur's "lowest unique /tip". Buy too few tickets and your chances to win are small. Buy too many, and your chances disappear entirely. There is no optimal strategy. You have to guess how many other people will enter, and how much each of them will pay. Major potential to be upset about making the wrong decision afterwards.
Personally, I don't think this is a bad thing. (Which is what you seemed to be implying... apologies if I'm misreading.) Strategize!

3. Lub it even more.
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Trevorius - Mostly retired, now with more inn-tart!
Cobalt Cerulean Ocean
Mostly lurking since 5/15/04
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Trevorius at Jul 14, 2006 6:29:03 AM]
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brazzy

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

 
Personally, I don't think this is a bad thing. (Which is what you seemed to be implying... apologies if I'm misreading.)


Oh, I don't think such events are bad, but I think it's a bit weird that the description implies that the restriction is all about equal chances, when it in fact (but quite possibly inintentionally) introduces a considerably element of strategy.

If you want to mess with people, at least be honest about it :)
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Teylynn

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Would random donations of items ~ each to be assigned a random number by say using the first numbers on the first four, first on the second, perhaps every other last number, every other first number, what every idea works to generate some more ticket holders would make this lottery a little more appealing to those that don't seem to like it?

A few more prizes? I know in the Powerball lottery there can be splits of the prizes.. even first prize... and you can win less amts such as just a dollor or three...

When I managed a conv. store I sold 1000 tickets to one man... he brought them back to us to be cashed.. he won about 60 bucks back...

I have a few new swords (foils yes.. but never used) that I would be willing to donate.. and possibly a green and grey dress, corset and shoes if they are still new...

Let me know if you would like some donations.. I"m more than willing to help... ~s~

Teylynn
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Teylynn, Cobalt Ocean
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Sagacious

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Therefore if I am a joint winner, I bagsy 4 of the tentacles and an eye as my share of the main prize.
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Cerulean & Meridian - Icemeister
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[Jul 14, 2006 8:06:32 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Teylynn

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Nah.. no joint winners in this one.. the way the numbers are figured out and assigned every ticket is an individual number there can only be one winner of every prize...

I was just thinking that donations of prizes to generate more winners might make this a little more appealing to those that don't seem to like.

although carrying around 4 tentacles and eye could make for some very interesting greenie interactions...
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Teylynn, Cobalt Ocean
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CandyK

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Awesome thing ye be doing. Pirates like me appreciate this chance!

Mum, who makes note on calendar when to send ye 1 poe
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Limeysmum, forever a Yarrrrrr Pirate, but now in the Limelight in a Twisted way!

homullus wrote: 

... kids aren't adults, and do stupid stuff sometimes because their brains aren't all set up yet.



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TheUnderlord

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Bah. I'll be out of town and without access to Puzzle Pirates, so no spending PoE for a chance at winning a familiar for me.

However, fantastic idea, and way to appeal to the lower end. Though I couldn't participate in your Ultimate familiar giveaway, you got Respect++ for that - ditto here.
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[Jul 14, 2006 9:02:37 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
ruby_spoon

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

What an interesting range or responses!

People are correct about what happens to poe spent that goes past the 10k limit: it goes straight into the pot.

The other deductions made were also correct; people are free to spread their bids over their subscribed alts. It's not ideal, but I can't see a good way to avoid it (if you can please let me know for future reference), and it does add a bit more strategy, which I think is nice. Excercise for the reader, though; estimate how much your odds are improved by spreading a bid of 100 over two alts.

With regard to the 'do I know what I'm doing' question, I'd like to think the answer is yes.
  • It could indeed be 100,000 tickets instead, but that would likely price out the lower end of the market. 1,000 wouldn't give enough room to play in. 10,000 seems just right.
  • The fact that it is possible to buy 'too many' tickets and end up with none is not a bug but a feature. A lottery is pure chance; I'm adding a bit of strategy.
  • You could say I'm not being honest about it, I suppose... the fact is, some people (at the very least those that read through the whole thread) will work out better strategies than the rest and increase their odds slightly - but that's all.

Consider the alternative, 'everyone gets an equal chance' idea. In practice, this would mean your chance of winning is directly proportional to your number of alts; it also means I can't guarantee how many tickets will be sold, making it difficult to find a nice randomisation method.

Thanks for the donation offers Teylynn, but it's very difficult to award them in a suitable way. Bear in mind that the first digits from each ball only go from 0 to 4. Anything that toys with the probabilities even slightly will affect the strategy, and it's just how I want it to be right now.

With regard to people that can't be there on the days to buy tickets, I'm hoping to arrange a few times during the preceding week when I'll be on, but at this stage can't guarantee anything. Keep watching this thread, or PM me and I'll PM you back when I know.
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Rubyspoon: [Midnight] BSP, Looterati; [Viridian] OD, Morrowind.
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Sagacious

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

What about 20,000?
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[Jul 14, 2006 6:04:36 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Malach

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Joined: Oct 10, 2005
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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

 
What about 20,000?


Since the number generation method can only generate for a pool of 1000, 10000, 100000, etc, that'd require a redesign of that part too.

On the other hand, If you'd end up with exactly 9 or 18 additional prizes, I've got a possible method of handing those out. Use the last 3 numbers of your winning and second numbers, and replace the first number with each number that wasn't the lottery-generated number, so you'd end up with exactly 2 prizes in every 1000 range, if you had 20 total, or 11 prizes, with only the second place repeating a range, if 11 total. It'd be interesting to see how a guaranteed prize or two in every 1000 numbers would change strategies, but I can see how that might throw things off the way you've got 'em set right now. Looks to be an interesting lottery, I'm looking forward to it either way.
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-Malach, mostly on Cobalt

Ex-Captain of Omega
Owner of Circe's Brew, Labyrinth Moors
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Malach at Jul 14, 2006 7:47:31 PM]
[Jul 14, 2006 7:43:33 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    Malach1    250095 [Link]  Go to top 
Stephensam

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

wow, i love this idea. I really like how it's not just a biggest wallet competition. So, if 10,000 people buy 1 ticket each and i buy 2, then i don't get any right?
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Stevensam -Cobalt Native, founder and host of The PoE is Right. Creator of Lime Day.
[Jul 14, 2006 8:22:54 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://yppedia.puzzlepirates.com/Stevensam [Link]  Go to top 
kargach

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

 
wow, i love this idea. I really like how it's not just a biggest wallet competition. So, if 10,000 people buy 1 ticket each and i buy 2, then i don't get any right?


That should be correct.

This competition will be wonderful! Already I'm asking myself whether to go ahead and buy 100 or only buy 99 and increase mu chances of getting in. But then when everyone ese reads this, maybe I need to go down to 98? Har!
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Kargach of the Midnight Ocean
Captain of the Champions of Valhalla, and occasionally good at forum contests
[Jul 14, 2006 8:44:35 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Kucey0

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Re: Lottery for a familiar - tickets only 1 P.o.E!

Whats the familars name?
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Deeogee

~ Retired ~
[Jul 15, 2006 3:31:33 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
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