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altruistcan



Joined: May 30, 2012
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Should you open a chocolate box? Math (EV) says no. Reply to this Post
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Out of curiousity, I decided to calculate the EV of opening a Chocolate Box, seeing people were selling them for over 100k on Emerald.

I estimated the value based on current selling prices on Emerald to the best of my abilities. Many of the prices listed are higher than what they usually sell for, just to eliminate doubt.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPBDl4aD5fJdHRhS196eFR4b1ZVOHd0Vi1PWWZsUFE

You're only expected to get about 27k in return from opening a chocolate box! (Even less if you think you can't sell for the prices I listed)

In other words, you're likely to get 4 times as much value selling it.

This likely means one of two things, or both:
1. Chocolate boxes are overpriced.
2. People are selling chocolate items for too low.

For those who don't want to look up EV (Expected Value), it basically means if you were to open a very high number of chocolate boxes, the average value of each box would be close to the EV.

As an example, if you had 1000 boxes, and sold everything for the prices I listed, you'd have very close to 1000 * 27k, or 27000k.

The EV of a typical lottery ticket is negative. But you can still win the lottery. That said, lottery usually takes about 40-50%, in this case, you're at 75% chance of losing value by not selling.
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[Edit 3 times, last edit by altruistcan at Sep 19, 2013 2:15:09 AM]
[Sep 19, 2013 2:12:20 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Aeternis

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Joined: Oct 21, 2004
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Re: Should you open a chocolate box? Math (EV) says no. Reply to this Post
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Nice effort in researching prices, but what do you expect in a game where many people have shops that don't make profits and don't recognise it.
On the other hand you have to consider that gambling itself is fun to many people and if they can buy fun with poe why shouldn't they? As you mentioned, there are enough RL lotteries that build on this phenomenon.
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Locu on Cerulean and Opal (and some other Oceans)

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[Sep 19, 2013 3:19:35 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
xelto

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Joined: Mar 18, 2007
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Re: Should you open a chocolate box? Math (EV) says no. Reply to this Post
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This likely means one of two things, or both:
1. Chocolate boxes are overpriced.
2. People are selling chocolate items for too low.

Most mystery boxes are overpriced. Including black and gold boxes. On the other hand, as mentioned, some people really like lotteries and raffles, and you have to admit, having a variety of prizes is more interesting than just money.
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Gurndigarn on Emerald Ocean
"Oh, come on. You jobbed onto a ship called the Cursed Isle Raider and you expected *refined*?"
[Sep 19, 2013 3:49:19 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
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