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Forums » List all forums » Forum: Piratical Parley and Politics » Thread: Ocean population stats |
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Thread Status: Normal Total posts in this thread: 35
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wrs1864b
Joined: Apr 10, 2006 Posts: 6337 Status: Offline |
So, I've been playing around with scraping the yoweb information on islands and have come up with the following population stats that I thought were interesting. Note that since this is the sum of island populations, it looks much different than the typical number of pirates being online at any given time. Emerald ocean: 21113 ---------------------------------------- Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent. |
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Karnisov
Joined: Apr 12, 2008 Posts: 821 Status: Offline |
so the active playerbase = ~47k - alt accounts? interesting. ---------------------------------------- Karnisov flinging poo on the forums because its more fun than playing your broken game |
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wrs1864b
Joined: Apr 10, 2006 Posts: 6337 Status: Offline |
Well, people can have accounts on more than one ocean too. personally, I was more surprised that the hunter/sage split was so wide and that cobalt was even close to midnight. I also knew that lima was the place to be on viridian, but I was surprised by how wide the margin it was, or how both hunter/sage had similar single mega-islands. In contrast, things are much more evenly split on both cobalt and midnight. Even though cobalt and viridian started out exactly the same, they turned out very different. On cobalt, lima is not very relevant and terra is #4 but on viridian, lima is #1 while terra is almost irrelevant. I am keeping track of all islands on all three oceans now, in a few months I may post how things have changed. I have very sketchy old data that hints that hunter is getting weaker, but players are concentrating on cerulean to a few large islands. I really wish I had started collecting this data years ago. ---------------------------------------- Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent. |
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BobJanova
Joined: Oct 16, 2007 Posts: 5008 Status: Offline |
The sum of residences isn't the active playerbase, it's the non-deleted playerbase ... it includes every pirate that's on a subbed or dubbed account and quit 5 years ago, as well as everyone's alts (for example I account for about 30 across all oceans). ---------------------------------------- Bobjanova on Viridian and Malachite Shops and stalls with fair and profitable wages for all: Jubilee, Napi, Chelydra Stripped/Barely Dressed (Malachite) Phantasm/Reign of Chaos (Viridian) |
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marundel
Joined: Jan 7, 2007 Posts: 2955 Status: Offline |
Yeah, I have between 30 and 50 pirates myself, when you count all my alts as well as the pirates on multiple oceans. Only about half of them are currently subbed, but all of them have paid money at one point or another. ---------------------------------------- Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean Prince, Super Awesomeness SO, Boochin' Drunks Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge |
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sweetnessc
Joined: Nov 10, 2004 Posts: 16105 Status: Offline |
It can't be - Tyr's Own and Crimson Tide alone would account for half the Midnight number of confirmed subscribers if it were. ---------------------------------------- My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. ~ Jack Layton Sublime is shame. |
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wrs1864b
Joined: Apr 10, 2006 Posts: 6337 Status: Offline |
Yeah, to the best of my knowledge, the population of a island is the number of non-dormant that have their home on the island. (Well, there is some lag between changing homes and the counts being updated, but that usually doesn't make any difference.) Since I want to know what exactly my stats are telling me, I've started an experiment by putting enough alts on an island to significantly change its population and I'll see how long it takes for the population to go back down. Other evidence: * I find it *highly* unlikely that Ansel island has only 2 non-purged pirates as its home on Cerulean and 4 on Meridian. Pizzahutpete may be able to confirm how many of his alts he has left on Ansel. * Between 2013-07-04, when the ipad surge was still going strong, and 2013-08-05, Emerald's island population dropped 42%. Since 08-05, it has dropped only 1.3%. Since it takess *at least* 6 weeks before pirates are purged, there wasn't enough time for that many pirates to be purged, but there was enough time for them to go dormant. ---------------------------------------- Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent. |
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BobJanova
Joined: Oct 16, 2007 Posts: 5008 Status: Offline |
Ah ok I didn't know that. ---------------------------------------- Bobjanova on Viridian and Malachite Shops and stalls with fair and profitable wages for all: Jubilee, Napi, Chelydra Stripped/Barely Dressed (Malachite) Phantasm/Reign of Chaos (Viridian) |
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marundel
Joined: Jan 7, 2007 Posts: 2955 Status: Offline |
Actually, two is correct. It used to be three, but one moved to Laby Moor when I bought Athena's Arts. ---------------------------------------- Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean Prince, Super Awesomeness SO, Boochin' Drunks Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge |
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wrs1864b
Joined: Apr 10, 2006 Posts: 6337 Status: Offline |
Sorry for obsessing over this nit, but when you are given an answer, it is always good to know what the question was. Who knows, island populations may be neither non-deleted nor non-dormant pirates.
OK, so for years you have had at least 2 alts with their home on Ansel (not just left there when they log off), right? If so, then in last February when the population of Ansel was only 1, the population couldn't have been the total of all non-purged pirates. And, a week ago, when the population was 2, there couldn't have been any other non-purged pirate with a home on Ansel, not even an old alt of Yorkyblue/Crotty or anyone in your flag. *shrug* The island that I put my alts on hasn't changed population since I did that, but I wouldn't expect it to change for about another week if it is just non-dormant pirates. If in a couple of weeks the population of that island hasn't dropped, we can be pretty sure it is non-purged pirates. ---------------------------------------- Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent. |
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Roleni
Joined: Aug 28, 2003 Posts: 4171 Status: Offline |
This is actually somewhat encouraging. Sure, the number of people online is pretty low, but this is a decent number of, well, accounts that are logging in on a regular basis. ---------------------------------------- Thalatta & others Hera tells ye, "You got me so flustered by the spanking, I booched my chat response!" Hera tells ye, "Purple is the most awesome colour ever!" |
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Provovative
Joined: Apr 8, 2013 Posts: 133 Status: Offline |
Im not sure I agree, sure its good for 000's finances but playing the game, doesnt matter if there are 50 people online or 100 (if 50 are all alts). ---------------------------------------- No allegiances. Pirate for hire. |
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EmpressTamar
Joined: May 7, 2012 Posts: 830 Status: Offline |
But (many) people buy badges for their alts. Even though they may be earning back its cost through SMHs/labor it still removes the doubloons from the game. Somebody has to buy these doubloons wish cash, you can't earn them by playing the game. Alts are good for OOO's bank balance. ---------------------------------------- Empresstamar of Emerald. Yppedia page Gorgeous avatar by by Cattrin <3 |
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wrs1864b
Joined: Apr 10, 2006 Posts: 6337 Status: Offline |
I'm now very certain that the "population of an island" is the number of non-dormant pirates that have their home on that island. As I mentioned above, I ran an experiment by putting a bunch of alts on an island. The population of that island went up by the number of alts I put there, then after 10 days, dropped back down to normal.
Yes, you really must not read too much into these numbers and you must understand what they are saying. For example, since OOO started a "just login in for one second and get a chance to win a colored familiar" event last Friday, the "island population" has gone up quite a bit, but glowie's "pirates online" numbers haven't gone up more than they normally do on weekends. Yeah, OOO may be bringing back a few old pirates when will log in again and then start playing again, but they aren't getting the 8%-15% jump that the island population has gotten. While I think the online population is closer to what people think of as an active ocean, the island population lets us see how pirates are shifting around within an ocean, and longer term trends that are larger than the short-term fluctuations. I had some older data for Cerulean, so a week ago I posted a thread Cerulean's island population: Today vs 6 months ago. In another 6months or so, I should be able to show similar info for Emerald/Meridian. ---------------------------------------- Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent. |
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wrs1864b
Joined: Apr 10, 2006 Posts: 6337 Status: Offline |
It has been three months since I started thread and I thought people might be interested in an update. So, here is how the populations have changed since 2013-08-06. Note that *every* year, there is a large drop in population when school starts in the US. I don't think the population drops that are shown are worse than normal. And, in the last couple of weeks, things have leveled off, just like previous years. The data is in the form of "current-population - pop-on-2013-08-06 = diff per%", so for example, the population of all of emerald's islands totaled up is currently 15881, while on 2013-08-06 it had a population of 21113, a drop off almost 25%. What I find interesting his how the population among the islands have shifted, it isn't a straight 25% drop everywhere. For example, the former Hunter ocean islands have dropped by more than the Sage islands, and the Cerulean ocean has dropped less than either of the green oceans. Emerald ocean: 15881 - 21113 = -5232 -24.8% ---------------------------------------- Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent. |
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Shinito
Joined: Jan 3, 2006 Posts: 588 Status: Offline |
Not really surprised considering the complete lack of any significant updates. ---------------------------------------- Thorkill on |
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jlh0605
Joined: May 1, 2007 Posts: 2243 Status: Offline |
Thank ye again, Algol, for the informative information. I hope that people come back.. though as Squishat points out, people don't stay for the puzzles, they stay for the social aspect, and with the ever-increasing number of inconsiderate, misbehaving pirates, I can't say I'm surprised. :( ---------------------------------------- ~Jamesh on Emerald Avatar by PixelPixie Galene tells ye, "You are awesome." |
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Dexla
Joined: Sep 26, 2006 Posts: 3090 Status: Offline |
This doesn't really surprise me much as I think the majority of Cerulean's population is made of players who are no longer in school (although, I've met many who are teachers, but that doesn't seem in interfere with their play time as much as having children does!) ---------------------------------------- Dexla d'Midnight |
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wrb03
Joined: Aug 17, 2004 Posts: 220 Status: Offline |
You know thats right. my most common phrase in YPP is "brb i have to clean an explosion (change a diaper)". LOL To give your statement some perspective i started YPP living at home and in college and now i have a kid and another on the way. I still play a few times a week but its mostly poker or skelly fights with occasional blockades or cit runs. ---------------------------------------- - Jublain (Cerulean) - Captain of Knot Working - Avatar By Jublain ---------------------------------------- [Edit 1 times, last edit by wrb03 at Nov 18, 2013 9:08:10 AM] |
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Shinito
Joined: Jan 3, 2006 Posts: 588 Status: Offline |
I wrote a script to parse the top crew pages for each ocean got some interesting data: Meridian: Crews found: 52 Active Cabin Persons found: 159 Active Pirates found: 820 Active Officers found: 672 Active Fleet Officers found: 585 Active Senior Officers found: 414 Active Captains found: 48 Active players found: 2765 Dormant Cabin Persons found: 1192 Dormant Pirates found: 10362 Dormant Officers found: 4577 Dormant Fleet Officers found: 1772 Dormant Senior Officers found: 471 Dormant Captains found: 1 Dormant players found: 18375 Total players found: 21140 Cerulean: Crews found: 41 Active Cabin Persons found: 103 Active Pirates found: 65 Active Officers found: 167 Active Fleet Officers found: 198 Active Senior Officers found: 287 Active Captains found: 37 Active players found: 870 Dormant Cabin Persons found: 2597 Dormant Pirates found: 1941 Dormant Officers found: 1712 Dormant Fleet Officers found: 1118 Dormant Senior Officers found: 731 Dormant Captains found: 4 Dormant players found: 8103 Total players found: 8973 Emerald: Crews found: 69 Active Cabin Persons found: 147 Active Pirates found: 713 Active Officers found: 748 Active Fleet Officers found: 596 Active Senior Officers found: 492 Active Captains found: 67 Active players found: 2862 Dormant Cabin Persons found: 1051 Dormant Pirates found: 6260 Dormant Officers found: 3615 Dormant Fleet Officers found: 1456 Dormant Senior Officers found: 573 Dormant Captains found: 2 Dormant players found: 12957 Total players found: 15819 ---------------------------------------- Thorkill on |
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marundel
Joined: Jan 7, 2007 Posts: 2955 Status: Offline |
I question the number of crews found on Cerulean. 41 is a remarkably low number even considering our low population. My flag has three active crews in it, and there are larger flags out there with more active crews. I probably have active hearties from more than 41 crews just on my list. I would guess that the number parsed is low by half, although I am too lazy to go out and try to count them by hand to prove it. ---------------------------------------- Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean Prince, Super Awesomeness SO, Boochin' Drunks Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge |
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Shinito
Joined: Jan 3, 2006 Posts: 588 Status: Offline |
I only parsed the top crews for every ocean. There is no way I was going to go though every crew ever registered. ---------------------------------------- Thorkill on |
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LJAmethyst
 Joined: Jul 19, 2007 Posts: 4150 Status: Offline |
The top crews, in other words, only those on the crew fame page. ---------------------------------------- Retired as of August 2015. Sic transit gloria mundi. |
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wrs1864b
Joined: Apr 10, 2006 Posts: 6337 Status: Offline |
Another three months, another update. So, here is how the populations have changed since 2013-11-06. The data is in the form of "current-population - pop-on-2013-11-06 = diff per%", so for example, the population of all of emerald's islands totaled up is currently 1606, while on 2013-11-06 it had a population of 15881, an increase of 1.1%. Typically, there is a large population drop off at the beginning of the school year in the US, the population holds somewhat steady over the fall/winter, and goes up some when the school year ends. Again, the overall population changes on the oceans are not uniform over the oceans. Some islands/archs have significantly more changes... Emerald ocean: 16062 - 15881 = 181 1.1% ---------------------------------------- Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent. |
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Shinito
Joined: Jan 3, 2006 Posts: 588 Status: Offline |
Can we get an update? ---------------------------------------- Thorkill on |
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wrs1864b
Joined: Apr 10, 2006 Posts: 6337 Status: Offline |
Sure.. For those who don't recognize this spew, read the earlier posts for an explanation of what this all means. These are the changes since I last posted stats, that is, 2013-11-06: If you want other start dates, let me know. wayne@hipbone: $ ./island_pop_stats -ocean emerald -v -odate 2013-11-06 ---------------------------------------- Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent. ---------------------------------------- [Edit 1 times, last edit by wrs1864b at Jan 13, 2016 3:57:31 AM] |
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Shinito
Joined: Jan 3, 2006 Posts: 588 Status: Offline |
Thanks, I didn't expect a drop in population this big. ---------------------------------------- Thorkill on |
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wrs1864b
Joined: Apr 10, 2006 Posts: 6337 Status: Offline |
I got a request for an update, so here it is an update since I last posted: wayne@hipbone: $ ./island_pop_stats -ocean emerald -v -odate 2016-01-16 ---------------------------------------- Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent. |
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SeaGi
Joined: Aug 10, 2005 Posts: 79 Status: Offline |
Yer stat doohickey is wrong. Only two people 'live' on TLM on Cerulean, me and Aquam. Lol. Seriously though, not kidding. :/ ---------------------------------------- "pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall" -Prov 16:18 Jimmyjimjim, Ex-downpressor of Babylon Thankfully Retired |
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TexasBeesh
Joined: Oct 14, 2005 Posts: 1754 Status: Offline |
hahahaha +1 ---------------------------------------- Seatexan - on the Midnight side of Cerulean LOW RACK PRICES AT DRESSED TO KILL - NAMATH Always looking for Pollack Sloops! |
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