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Mousebait

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Re: ROMS: (DC)XV -- GAME ON Reply to this Post
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@Setsusa

I'm sorry what did you mean by this?

Setsusa wrote: 
I still think quite a few of the players who've returned from lengthy hiatuses, haitusii? are jumping the gun to point their fingers. Maybe that's just because I think your cases aren't strong and you're poking your fingers in to try and find something which is all well and good but some of it seems like "HA, I'VE FOUND YOU ROGUE, TELL ME YOUR SECRETS"


Who do you believe has done this? All the ROMS returnees? Can you give examples?
----------------------------------------
"I shall try to correct errors when shown to be errors, and I shall adopt new views as fast they shall appear to be true views." -Abraham Lincoln

I'm the cheese.
[May 27, 2012 10:04:07 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Bunnylaroo

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Master wrote: 

And to Bunny's analogy:
I get what you're saying with it, I just don't think it's very accurate. I understand how you feel, but Furare's policy vote was on something she feels is very anti-town. Yours would be over something that's just frustrating.


Earlier this evening, I wrote: 
I wasn't trying to compare the two actions in terms of their impact on the game. It was more that I was looking for an action that, taken on its own, is in no way indicative of alignment, and I picked the first thing that came to mind.


Hopefully, that re-clarifies what I was trying to say with my analogy. I could just as easily have said "I'll vote for a player whose name I pick out of a hat because the town needs to lynch". My point was, and will continue to be, that I think voting based on policy rather than suspicion is not a good idea. Oh also, the line before you went into the semantics of my analogy,

Master wrote: 
Going into semantics about the analogy seems a bit unnecessary, to me at least.


So yes, I agree with you there.

Master wrote: 
Also, Bunny, just because you're suspicious of someone doesn't mean you don't agree with some of their logic and/or suspicions.


Allowing this to be true, I don't see how it applies to the situation with Kotetsu and Mrbriney. We have discussed at length the fact that Mrbriney's vote was not governed by logic, rather by a suspicion that originated in his abdominal region, which it's unlikely that Kotetsu is capable of sharing.

But personally, if I FoS'd somebody who had thrown out a random vote based on gut, I would be wary of piggy backing that vote. Which is why it gave me pause.
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Bunnylaroo of Sage Emerald

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[May 27, 2012 10:13:31 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
riku743

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Re: ROMS: (DC)XV -- GAME ON Reply to this Post
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Mousebait wrote: 
@Setsusa

I'm sorry what did you mean by this?

Setsusa wrote: 
I still think quite a few of the players who've returned from lengthy hiatuses, haitusii? are jumping the gun to point their fingers. Maybe that's just because I think your cases aren't strong and you're poking your fingers in to try and find something which is all well and good but some of it seems like "HA, I'VE FOUND YOU ROGUE, TELL ME YOUR SECRETS"


Who do you believe has done this? All the ROMS returnees? Can you give examples?

If you loved reading the discussion so much, I would have expected you to have been reading the discussion.
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Nil used to play Mala.
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[May 27, 2012 10:42:33 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Searmin

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Re: ROMS: (DC)XV -- GAME ON Reply to this Post
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Had I been around, I wouldn't have voted. I should have a rather uneventful time for the majority of the remainder of the game, so I'm expecting quite a bit more time for posting.

Nalanthi wrote: 
So I am actually a huge game theory nerd. I built a small mathematical simulator of a mafia game with 24 people. At the start, the town could pick someone at random and lynch them. Every time, the town lynched someone, the scum gained a little weight, in that the town was slightly more likely to lynch them then an innocent in a subsequent round. I also programmed in a doctor who randomly protected people and a cop and a tracker. For each night the cop and tracker were alive, the scum accumulated a weight 1/4 of what they would get from a lynch (so roles are 1/4 as good as a lynch for finding scum). I then tuned the suspicion accumulation so the town won 60% of the games where they lynched day 1. Then I had them not lynch day 1 ( this does deny the town one day of suspicion accumulation which only happens when they actually lynch) The net result was that the town won 72% of the games. This huge jump was caused by the very slight decrease in chance of hitting a roleholder on day 2. If they held of lynching on day two it went down to ~68% win rate. This is the reason for my hard swap.

I think the randomness assumption hurts the conclusion a lot here. Day 1 is a bit more random than later Days but less random than pure chance.

Regarding abstains later in the game...the simulation becomes completely unreliable, although I think you're aware of this. Speaking from my experience as a rogue last game, mid-late game I had made a little document listing all the players in the game, who I thought could be lynched, who I knew wouldn't be lynched, and who I thought I'd have a really hard time getting a lynch on. Every ban was an opportunity for the rogues to remove one of the problematic innocents from the game; every lynch paired with a missed ban--even innocent lynches--would have pushed the game in favor of the town by lowering the number of lynchable innocents without lowering the number of ban-only innocents. Missed bans in late game don't buy the town more time so much as they allow the town to push the odds in their favor.
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Searmin

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Searmin says, "Okay, we're gonna sail this ship right into Mount Doom"
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[May 27, 2012 10:56:14 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Bunnylaroo

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Re: ROMS: (DC)XV -- GAME ON Reply to this Post
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Having walked away from the computer and come back, I want to clarify something that may not have been clear the first time I wrote it:

When I quoted Master saying:
Master wrote: 

Going into semantics about the analogy seems a bit unnecessary, to me at least.


I am aware that he was talking about riku's analogy, not mine.
I just don't really get why you feel that way about riku's but not mine.

Analogies are the new "tunnel vision". And here I thought it was going to be "gut votes"

...Wow I've got a lot of posts today!
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[May 27, 2012 10:58:31 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mousebait

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Re: ROMS: (DC)XV -- GAME ON Reply to this Post
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@Riku
I had read it and I fail to see how it answers my question. The question remains who specifically is Setsusa talking about? And would he give examples.

Marinated asked a similar question and as far as I'm concerned Setsusa didn't answer it.
----------------------------------------
"I shall try to correct errors when shown to be errors, and I shall adopt new views as fast they shall appear to be true views." -Abraham Lincoln

I'm the cheese.
[May 27, 2012 11:20:25 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
riku743

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He gave specific examples of Lyaka and Abiona.
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[May 27, 2012 11:37:14 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
mads0001

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Re: ROMS: (DC)XV -- GAME ON Reply to this Post
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Kotetsu. Watchlisting that guy!

Reasons? The arbitrary run on Smiley for wanting to abstain seemed off to me. Throw in the "easy" vote on Firebolt for good measure. You have to vote for one of the lurkers, sure. I get that... You're justifying it with "well you're not much use are you? DIE!" on the other hand?

That's not really going to encourage others to vote your way is it? Unless you're expecting everyone to pile on specifically to secure a lynch, which just won't happen on Day 1. (Mainly because there's too many people voting in different directions without anything strong to go on.)




I didn't vote anyone yesterday, my reasoning for this was twofold:

1) There's a few people that made me raise an eyebrow, yet nothing that I felt was convincing enough at this stage.

2) It was a bloomin' lovely day in sunny ol' England, I spent a large chunk of it outside. :P

Yes, there was a lot of info for the first day, which is awesome, but still, abstaining from killing someone now to have another day at the end seems preferable. It's slightly reassuring to know that had I voted it wouldn't have mattered anyway, but y'know... Not the point is it?
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rachaelj wrote: 

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spelling corrected by Mads(tm) :P
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[May 28, 2012 12:11:00 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mousebait

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Lyaka and Abiona in previous games, however from his original post it seems to me he is talking about this game. His answer to Marinated also makes me believe he is talking about this game. I was not the only one puzzled by his answer, Nalanthi also asked for clarification. As regards Nalanthi I am happy with Setsusa's response. However my question is still unanswered. What returning players in DC:XV does he precieve as calling people a rogue for flimsy reasons?

Why not give Setsusa time and see if he chooses to answer?
----------------------------------------
"I shall try to correct errors when shown to be errors, and I shall adopt new views as fast they shall appear to be true views." -Abraham Lincoln

I'm the cheese.
[May 28, 2012 12:14:53 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
smileo

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Rare wrote: 
I really have to ask if you've read anything I've said. Did I ever say that I expected my vote to "bear fruit" in the sense of finding a rogue? I think I've actually said the contrary


I have read back through the interchange, and see that perhaps you're right, on reflection, I have been reactive so far this game rather than proactive, I went on a mad defence perhaps even just picking out the bits I didn't like because I didnt like what you did, I have not been as objective as I need to be. (perhaps I should bring back twoo.... he is always objective :P)

Re reading your posts and comparing to my notes, I have missed large portions that dillute (but do not dissolve) my suspicion of your alignment.That said, it doesnt null and void the point I am trying to make nor my feelings toward your vote. you are voting without any interest in the alignment of the person where it goes, how do we gather information from that? The only thing we learn we already know, You dont like abstainers, and you'd rather lynch an innocent than no-one for the sake of information. Our main difference seems to be in the value we place on certain types of information. I liked and agreed with much of what you said about the town using the information in the wrong way.
Rare wrote: 
How was I at all interested in "studying the votecount"?

sorry, wrong term used, voting records is what you want right? If I am wrong please help me out.
 
The tone of your response is just... I don't know. It reads a little over-reactive
perhaps it is the 80 hour week together with the heavy commute Im doing right now. it has been Wake up, go to work, go home, go to sleep, wake up... My windows for posting until next week have been very few and very short, and Im exhausted, I am reacting to things right now without as much check as I would normally, and I abandoned the roleplay because I just dont have the mental energy. I have reflected that I was actually quite rude in my first couple of responses, especially to Kotetsu, I intended to come back and apologise to him for that when I was done here as there is more I want to address there.

for the record, I really am sorry for the snarky tone I used. Tiredness is not an excuse for being a jerk, neither is pride or frustration.

My first post was intented as a point to start from, get my intentions and my stance down early so I can start hunting from there.
I came back to several people misinterpreting intentionally or otherwise what I'd written and reading between the lines I was fueled by my own frustration. With the intelligence of those doing it I could only assume that there was some intentional manipulation in there. I created a watchlist out of the ones that I was uncomfortable with as I can see rogues piggybacking that line of arguement, or even starting it. Talisker did it last game as a rogue and I saw it then, only to be banned Day 2.

Your vote I couldn't and still dont agree with, I think your motives arent as malicious as I first thought, but I do not think the action is helpful at all. The FoS was hasty, but you are still watchlisted.

Jokerina wrote: 
because they do what smileo just did. Check in, vote abstain and disappear again until Day 2

When talking about me to the town, rather than talking to me, could you provide a walkthrough of where I disappeared? While I had small windows to post in, I worked damn hard to put content and meaning into my posts. I dont feel that I disappeared. I do however feel that I let myself get dragged into spending too much of my time trying to correct the incorrect assumptions. and misinterpretations, I will try to make better use of my time until I have more of it.
 
Talk about what? Because whatever the town usually talks about in Day 1 is apparently fruitless.
Day 1 rarely gives us rogues, but the discussion is not fruitless at all there is tons to talk about. Our tendancy is to go after the wrong people so Day 1 becomes fruitless in spite of the information available. Voting without adequate suspicion is always a bad idea.
 
I've already spoken about Day 1 discussions and I am definitely not a fan of purposely missing lynches just so we can get extra days and have a higher chance of finding a rogue. That will just make the town complacent, easier for a rogue to manipulate the town.

Im not suggesting the town all agree to miss a lynch. I am suggesting that as an individual, you vote when you have sufficient suspicion to do so, but not until you do. If that is anti town, I don't get it

For reference - this is not my last post toDay or even today.
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'Tis not true, that I are psychologically challenged
I prefers the term "Mentally Hilarious"

Smiley
Could very well be a rogue.
[May 28, 2012 1:50:13 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
smileo

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Re: ROMS: (DC)XV -- GAME ON Reply to this Post
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For what it is worth I understand the theory behind Mousebaits vote for an idle or lurker.

By taking a set of boundaries that a rogue is likely to hide in, you can increase the odds on a crapshoot, while minimising the harm to the town if it is a less desirable townie that gets inadvertantly taken out.

I dont agree that it makes for a better practice, but I understand the logic.
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'Tis not true, that I are psychologically challenged
I prefers the term "Mentally Hilarious"

Smiley
Could very well be a rogue.
[May 28, 2012 1:57:43 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
smileo

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Re: ROMS: (DC)XV -- GAME ON Reply to this Post
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in other news

Goats votes Riku for defending Briney, as he is trying to curry favour
Mr Briney votes Firebait for defending MrDwizzles as he is trying to curry favour.
All we need now is someone to curry favour with Goats and Dwizzles to vote and we can go full circle.

i can see that Tae is playing particularly hard this game with some very strong arguements, was it Tae or wrecker that said she usually hunts harder as a rogue? (just musing at this point)
Goats wrote: 
what in the... how did you sink his name down... does anybody else see that weird subscripty-looking WHAT HAVE YOU DONE SMILEY D:

Thats my superpower biggrinor would be if this was about superheroes and not about the mean gangs of DC trying to kill me and the family in my basement.
notJaret wrote: 
By voting so early in the game I think that MrB's real motive was just to stir the pot a bit to reveal any potential rogues by analyzing the posts

MrBriney had already by this point stated that he suspected firebolt of being a rogue due to currying favour with Dwizzle. Strange that you should offer a defence that contradicts his previous statement. Do you suspect him of lying about his reasons or are did you miss that? You claimed to be not skimming
 
I am saying based on previous games I have skimmed and not this game...MrB stirred the pot which i thought would be an anti-fluff maneuver (this is my first game like I said before)

if you skimmed previous games but this is your first game, should I assume you usually watch?

I also think I have figured out Jokerina's secret identity, but Ill keep that to myself.
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'Tis not true, that I are psychologically challenged
I prefers the term "Mentally Hilarious"

Smiley
Could very well be a rogue.
[May 28, 2012 2:50:47 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
smileo

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Kotetsu wrote: 
A better question than "how many rogues have been lynched on day one?" is "how many rogues have been lynched in part because of something that happened on day one?"


agree 100%. Things that happen Day 1 should not be ignored. We just need to think harder about what things mean before we vote.

 
You dismissed any thought of suspecting Phoenix, offered no other suspicions and voted to abstain. But apparently I'm assuming you weren't interested in rogue hunting during day one


my apologies, your assumption I mentioned was just that I was done for the day. I wont spend much time repeating what I said above, but I was just getting started :)

@Nalanthi your game analysis is very well thought outand makes a lot of sense, but should the day 1 figures take into consideration the tactical advantage of the rogues if it were to be more accurate? Id assume it unquantifiable. The rogues task is to blend in and not stand out, the innocents have no such comission and less inhibitions, I'd say the standout runners day 1 are by default going to be less likely to be rogues adding another variable that lessens the chance of a Day 1 rogue lynch further.
unless Im being silly, which is always a possibility. Im not that good with the brainsmarts

Still not done for the Day
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'Tis not true, that I are psychologically challenged
I prefers the term "Mentally Hilarious"

Smiley
Could very well be a rogue.
[May 28, 2012 3:06:45 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mrbriney

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Hello everyone!

First off, sorry for my unexpectedly lengthy absence. It wasn't my intention to get into a discussion and then nonchalantly wander off and leave everyone to duke it out. As Mads says, it was a glorious weekend here in England and I confess I spent most of it lying in a deckchair stroking my lengthy beard and making small "hmmm" noises to myself, like any good old man.

Secondly, I am happy to see that we have had a (comparatively) productive Day 1. Everyone has posted something, and I feel I now have a reasonable idea of what's going on with who.

In any case, this post is going to be quite long and will probably take me the better part of a month to write up, seeing as it requires me reading back on Day 1 (dats alotta posts) and trying to take an impartial view on everything.

Regarding Furare,

Furare wrote: 
On my vote - I decided before the game even started that I was going to vote the first person who voted Abstain. It's got nothing to do with whether or not that person is always like that, or whether they might change their vote later, or... well, none of that matters to me.


Although I feel that taking a policy before the game and remaining determined to stick to it regardless of the circumstances that arise can be detrimental to the town, in this particular circumstance I find the idea, although not exactly fair, fairly understandable. Abstain votes are kind of frustrating. If you don't wish for there to be a lynch why not remain unvoted? Remaining determined to vote abstain on Day 1 regardless of what happens isn't helpful to the town. I agree with Furare insofar that we should take every lynch available to us. Lynching is the town's #1 weapon, we should be taking every opportunity to use that. This game's Day 1 has been interesting and relatively exciting, there has been plenty enough reasons to vote for plenty of people, so I must confess a certain degree of confusion and/or bemusement that those wishing to abstain proved determined to do so regardless.

I can understand that typically Day 1 is boring and meta-filled, meaning an abstain makes sense, but I feel that this one was slightly different at the very least, it would have been very possible to vote and I'd urge people to use the weapons we have to their full potential.

Whatever though, this is just another game-theory discussion and that's not what I'm here to do.

Either way, I feel that Furare's vote was relatively justified. Smileo was purely unlucky enough to be the one that got hit with the vote, and for those saying "why Smiley? Plenty of others did the same thing.", this would be the same reaction regardless. Had Furare voted for either of the other Abstainees, someone would be saying "Why <name>? Plenty of others did the same thing." Furare's vote is a vote based on policy that has been built around what is undeniably significant experience. Although I don't trust Furare in herself, I do trust her opinion on this matter.

Not a Finger of Innocence, not in the slightest, but I do understand the thought processes that Furare is having and how her experiences (High Security comes to mind, Furare was visibly frustrated as a moderator) reflect on her vote. I do not find her explanations lacking.

Master,

Master wrote: 
On the other hand, I still recognize you all. Yes, what Phoe, MrBriney, and Smiley did is weird. However, people can do weird stuff and not be rogues. Look at Rissa, or myself.


I find it odd that here you say what I did was weird, but later on you decide that actually it's suspicious and doesn't fit in. Admittedly this was after I had made a couple of my larger posts, but it seems to be quite a turn on what you originally thought, and I'm more troubled by it because you appear to be jumping on whilst others lead the charge.

Further to this, you don't really appear to have a full comprehension of the circumstances in question. Mistaking both who my vote is on and the reason for it:
Master wrote: 
I really, really don't like the way you're handling some things, notably the above and how you said you didn't like pressure votes while having a pressure vote on Phoe.

Like I said earlier, I want to be impartial about this. I am already aware that you easily get names confused, or you're not always able to put into words what you think (you're not the only one, no worries) so I think that that in itself is forgivable. You make it clear later on you are determined to stick with the vote, which I have no issue with. It is evident that you have a different interpretation of what I said than what was meant, which is somewhat unavoidable, albeit frustrating.

At first I just believed the reasons you were voting for me were flawed. Like I said, it's not really your fault if you don't understand what I'm saying, and mixing up names is not exactly something that is indicative of roguehood. Then, however, you said this:
Master wrote: 
It's going in the record books, so good enough for now.

Luvessy, and you agreed, summed it up perfectly with
Luvessy wrote: 
This stood out to me, the "going in the record books" part. To me it sounds like Master is saying he's content in that his vote on Mrbriney will be seen later in the game. Please correct me if my interpretation is wrong, Master. If that's the case, it just makes me wonder why Master's reason for voting is to be seen by the town doing certain things. It seems to me that rogues are more concerned with appearing to be going the "right thing" by the rest of town than townies would be. Also, something about Master's attitude towards voting for Mrbriney when he did and when he's now unvoted him doesn't match up for me.

Your response to which was
Master wrote: 
Actually, yeah. That's pretty right. But me, or anyone, off voting by themselves isn't very good for the town. It's best for us to come to a consensus, and if that consensus isn't my vote, then I don't mind taking it off. You all see that I'm suspicious of him, and voted him, and explained myself.

Which I can't really say makes much sense to me. You should be voting who you're most suspicious for. Taking the vote off because you don't think the town is behind you is not something I agree with. I can understand removing a vote if you don't feel the vote leader should be lynched, but seeing as there was literally no danger of anyone being lynched yesterDay, that isn't really applicable in this situation. Again, this isn't indicative of roguedom, but I don't think pandering to what other people want is going to get us anywhere fast. That is how the rogues start to dictate our affairs.

Kotsetsu,

It may seem hypocritical coming from me, but what was up with that vote? Don't hold your punches bro, say it how you see it, etc. Where did that come from? You had expressed no interest in firebolt up to that point. The wording was harsh, and I'm not sure how you can expect firebolt to be posting more as a result of your vote. It has become clear that unreasonable votes on firebolt don't exactly make her post more (yes, my vote was unreasonable.) so I have to question what you wished to achieve by laying that down.

This reads all wrong to me, I don't like it in the slightest.

firebolt,

Come back, I'm sorry :(

#Vote: Kotetsu

FoS: Master.

This post took me about 3 and a half hours to compose, and I was often interrupted by doing work. If it seems disjointed, my apologies.
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It's MR BRINNNEEEYYY
[May 28, 2012 3:52:52 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
firebolt153

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Don't you guys worry...I'm still here. My weekend was full of work trying to kill me with headaches (damn Memorial Day sales), so while I was reading along, my brain was not functioning at processing capacity, so to speak. In the process of gathering my thoughts and putting them down for a post.
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Rinni on the Emerald Ocean

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[May 28, 2012 6:05:15 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Setsusa

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@Riku
I had read it and I fail to see how it answers my question. The question remains who specifically is Setsusa talking about? And would he give examples.

Marinated asked a similar question and as far as I'm concerned Setsusa didn't answer it.


Bacon weave cake.

Best thing I've seen in this city yet! Today's itinerary for the lovely DC involves a trip to the White House! I'll be able to get some amazing pictures there, can't wait. And, given the confusion with my baggage on the way to the hotel they have given me a complimentary dinner and show. I for one, am excited.
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Cremate on Emerald.
Motou on Meridian.
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[May 28, 2012 6:41:33 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Setsusa

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GAAAAAH QUOTE TAGS. That was Mouse.
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Motou on Meridian.
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[May 28, 2012 6:43:38 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Nalanthi



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searmin wrote: 
Had I been around, I wouldn't have voted. I should have a rather uneventful time for the majority of the remainder of the game, so I'm expecting quite a bit more time for posting.

Nalanthi wrote: 
So I am actually a huge game theory nerd. I built a small mathematical simulator of a mafia game with 24 people. At the start, the town could pick someone at random and lynch them. Every time, the town lynched someone, the scum gained a little weight, in that the town was slightly more likely to lynch them then an innocent in a subsequent round. I also programmed in a doctor who randomly protected people and a cop and a tracker. For each night the cop and tracker were alive, the scum accumulated a weight 1/4 of what they would get from a lynch (so roles are 1/4 as good as a lynch for finding scum). I then tuned the suspicion accumulation so the town won 60% of the games where they lynched day 1. Then I had them not lynch day 1 ( this does deny the town one day of suspicion accumulation which only happens when they actually lynch) The net result was that the town won 72% of the games. This huge jump was caused by the very slight decrease in chance of hitting a roleholder on day 2. If they held of lynching on day two it went down to ~68% win rate. This is the reason for my hard swap.

I think the randomness assumption hurts the conclusion a lot here. Day 1 is a bit more random than later Days but less random than pure chance.

Regarding abstains later in the game...the simulation becomes completely unreliable, although I think you're aware of this. Speaking from my experience as a rogue last game, mid-late game I had made a little document listing all the players in the game, who I thought could be lynched, who I knew wouldn't be lynched, and who I thought I'd have a really hard time getting a lynch on. Every ban was an opportunity for the rogues to remove one of the problematic innocents from the game; every lynch paired with a missed ban--even innocent lynches--would have pushed the game in favor of the town by lowering the number of lynchable innocents without lowering the number of ban-only innocents. Missed bans in late game don't buy the town more time so much as they allow the town to push the odds in their favor.

This is one of the reasons that I had not planned to share my simulator with the thread. It is only intended to be accurate as a macro representation of what is going on in the game that allows me to look at how early actions change the overall flow. There are a number of variables I am fairly uncomfortable with in the simulation.
Simulator Issues
  • I may be misvaluing the investigative roles (in either direction)
  • We do not know what roles are in play.
  • While early action in the game is pretty random, later action is certainly not. While I don't think this would change the results much I could be wrong.
  • We don't know what powers the Rogues have.
  • The cult would throw this math straight out the window.
  • There is no mechanism for the scum to find roleholders.
For these reasons listed above and others that may not have occured to me, I do not consider this simulation definitive. It was convincing enough to me for me to take my actions based on it, but in case it was fundamentally flawed, I did not what the whole town basing there actions on the weight of my simulation. Also discussing it on Day 1 would have increased not decreased the Meta content.
The only reason that I brought it up is that I was questioned on my hard switch on day 2. So my reasoning is not based on the game becoming magically content rich. In fact in the simulator, the game is not content rich on day 2, but giving the roles more than one free night to work does not help more.

Now I think that we should stop discussing the details of this in the thread. I have made a dead thread thread where people can comment on how to improve it.
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Nalanthi - A Blatant PvPer, War Monger and Officer of the Falcon's Fury.
-Midnight (Retired)
Tamman - Head of a Merchant Empire, and Strategist of Black Plague
-Viridian (Retired)
Nalanthi - Mercenary and scalawag.
-Malachite
[May 28, 2012 7:08:46 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Lotsofgoats

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I see that smileo is back. I was getting worried there, because he had essentially played the old, "You're not searching for rogues!" argument yesterday while only posting to respond to suspicions against himself. That's why I had made the "do as I say, not as I do" comment earlier on. I get wanting to respond to people when they're after you, but if that's the only thing that you're doing then I think there may be a reason for that.

In regards to everybody's weekends and upcoming plans and such, I tend to ignore things that don't really belong in the thread. You might say, "Wow, that guy is a jerk with no sympathy!" Don't be fooled. I just think that the appeal to emotion has such a heavy impact on the game that I'd hate to be thrown off by something like that.

Kotetsu's vote yesterday is dancing in a spotlight. I still can't tell what changed between, "I don't have much reason to suspect Phoenix or Firebolt, so I think I'd rule out voting for them," and then actually voting Firebolt. I also have no idea why you'd be a complete jerk about your vote. I think that the choice of a low-posting relatively new face is significant -- it reads very much as a bully vote against somebody who Kotetsu hopes is unlikely to bite back.

That leaves me at some point between FoH and FoS, enough to overtake riku for now.

#Vote: Kotetsu
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[May 28, 2012 7:24:20 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mousebait

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@ Stesusa


WHAAAAAAAAAAAAT?
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[May 28, 2012 7:35:36 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mousebait

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@ Mrbriney

I am curious about this part of your post
Mrbriney wrote: 
This game's Day 1 has been interesting and relatively exciting, there has been plenty enough reasons to vote for plenty of people


If you felt that way, why did you leave your self described "unreasonable" vote on Firebolt?
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"I shall try to correct errors when shown to be errors, and I shall adopt new views as fast they shall appear to be true views." -Abraham Lincoln

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[May 28, 2012 7:47:34 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mrbriney

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Mousebait wrote: 
If you felt that way, why did you leave your self described "unreasonable" vote on Firebolt?


I was lounging in my deckchair. I'm afraid that Firebolt was forced to put up with my vote in order for me to get a tan.

In all seriousness, I hadn't read the thread since my last Day 1 post until this morning. Neglect, in all honesty.
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[May 28, 2012 7:52:47 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Kotetsu534



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Geez, towns in these games can be really dumb. Waste your lynches by refusing (or not caring, like Mads and Briney) to vote, then when someone tries to salvage some information out of a day by stirring the pot, go and bandwagon on him. Yeah, cause it's really common for rogues to draw attention to themselves at the end of day one. Classic rogue play, that. Don't even bother reacting to the weird arguments that crawl out wondering why I didn't bother blathering about five other inactives when there was ten minutes left in the day.

Get this through your heads: rogues don't need to do anything in the day to win. Town does.

Get off me (unless your rogues, but I doubt all of you are).
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[May 28, 2012 8:14:44 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mrbriney

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Wise fisherman says: People who are rude get lynched.
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[May 28, 2012 8:17:58 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
mads0001

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Geez, towns in these games can be really dumb. Waste your lynches by refusing (or not caring, like Mads and Briney) to vote, then when someone tries to salvage some information out of a day by stirring the pot, go and bandwagon on him. Yeah, cause it's really common for rogues to draw attention to themselves at the end of day one. Classic rogue play, that. Don't even bother reacting to the weird arguments that crawl out wondering why I didn't bother blathering about five other inactives when there was ten minutes left in the day.

Get this through your heads: rogues don't need to do anything in the day to win. Town does.

Get off me (unless your rogues, but I doubt all of you are).


I'd held off, but...

#vote kotetsu


I'm not going to lie, the vote irked me, the snarkiness irked me more. I think in terms of contribution, stamping your feet and screaming at people is more likely to muddy the waters than find a rogue. I'd rather not waste my time dealing with a tantrum.
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rachaelj wrote: 

"your standing in patronising has gone up and is now respected in your archipelago"
spelling corrected by Mads(tm) :P
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[May 28, 2012 8:24:59 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
firebolt153

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First things first:

kotetsu wrote: 

Y'know what, firebolt, you really wouldn't be much loss. You've posted no content and not voted.

#Vote: firebolt


Looking at this objectively (and about 24 hours removed from the post, because originally my language was a lot more severe), well no, I didn't post much content. You are right, but there was no need to be such a [word not acceptable in PG films] about it. Like others have said, I was not the only one who was a low poster and did not vote. Your attitude about shoving off a "useless" innocent just because of those criteria is suspicious to me, especially considering that "no content" thing. And especially because it came ten minutes before Nightfall. FoS.

JMR, I thank ye for your defense, and I concur with most of what you said in that regard. I do not want to appear to be a parrot or a puppy, so that, combined with working this weekend and then getting headaches that sent me to bed are my reasons for low posting/low content (yes Goats, I know you are not a fan of saying RL problems, but there it is). As for the scaring me from posting, as I said before, I'm a tough cookie. If I can't take a few insults before breakfast, I should just go back to bed. If anything, I was just irritated.

Moving on…I combed the thread to see if I could find anything in random's posts that might have pointed to why she got banned (is there an easier way to see all the person's posts in a particular thread besides just scrolling through it?) and in this post here she talks about going after people who aren't posting much. It could be nothing, but given the somewhat random voting on me from MrB and kotetsu, it stuck out a smidge.

Then there was the thing where people questioned whether Phoe was a rogue or not because of her mod questions and random posted a very detailed "how could this work" sort of thing here. Again, could be nothing, but it was pretty detailed in a possible thought process for Phoe.

After that, nothing really jumped out at me as "hm, wonder if that's something that got her banned." Coulda just been the rogues throwing a dart at her name and saying "k, let's ban her, since it's the first Night."

Nalanthi, on one of the simulator issues, wrote: 
The cult would throw this math straight out the window.

The cult? *is confused*

Setsusa wrote: 
Bacon weave cake.

I do love Epic Meal Time.

Side note: Luvessy, I know it's intentional, but whenever I read your posts I hear them in this lovely Southern twang :-p.
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[May 28, 2012 8:25:50 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Lotsofgoats

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I am so terribly sorry for acting oh so unreasonably, Kotetsu.

Now then, your explanation doesn't really jive with the timing of things last night. You voted with 10 minutes to go. Your vote bumped smileo down to 2 votes and bumped firebolt up to 2 votes. That's not at all setting the town up to salvage some information -- you actually made that more difficult by contributing to a 3-way tie. It was pretty irrelevant, too, since 6 additional people would have had to vote in the following 10 minutes.

Your after the fact reasoning makes less sense than the original vote.
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[May 28, 2012 8:38:53 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Lotsofgoats

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Sorry, that's a two-way tie. The third was our old friend Abstain.
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[May 28, 2012 8:40:30 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mrbriney

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Kotetsu wrote: 
(or not caring, like Mads and Briney)


What did you mean by this? I've voted both toDay and yesterDay. I think I might be misunderstanding.
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[May 28, 2012 8:42:38 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Bunnylaroo

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Kotetsu wrote: 
Geez, towns in these games can be really dumb.


First off, aren't you the guy that called Smiley out for "snarkiness"? Just making sure.
I'm aware you feel that we don't need to be "nice" to each other, but we do need to be respectful. Try it, you might like it :D

Second, I think that if you step away for a moment, cool off from your irritation, and look at the problems people have with your vote, you might notice that there are some things you could clarify about it:

1 - There was a vote on Mousebait, who was also a low content poster, yet you dismissed the idea of voting for her.
2 - There were 2 votes on Smiley, whom you had voted for earlier and unvoted (which I questioned here, and still don't get. You said you "hoped to hear more from him" but we didn't get anymore than abstain defense, so...), so if you were truly trying to secure a lynch, why not vote there?
3 - You had an FoS on Mrbriney, and I assume your feelings on him have not changed, so why piggy back his vote?
4 - Claiming that you were hoping others would vote with you, considering that it was the end of the day, when we're nowhere near 50% and there are only 10 minutes left to deadline, is really really unlikely to produce the result you were looking for.

Please notice that none of those four points fall into the way you've classified all arguments against you:

Kotetsu wrote: 
Don't even bother reacting to the weird arguments that crawl out wondering why I didn't bother blathering about five other inactives when there was ten minutes left in the day.


As to the part about not wanting to call attention to yourself if you were a rogue, at that point you didn't have a vote, although you've been a strong advocate of Day 1 lynches. If you didn't vote somewhere, you'd be called out as a hypocrite. So, either way you'd call attention to yourself.
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