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Cardinalsin9



Joined: Nov 5, 2007
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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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OK, so let's suppose that the OP actually collects 300-500 hands worth of data. What statistical methods will you use to test the randomness? If you don't define exactly what you're looking for ahead of time, and what level of significance you're trying to achieve, then your results will be meaningless. Since you haven't specified exactly how many hands worth of data you're going to collect, I don't think you've put enough thought into this.


I stated a initial monetary amount, some simple maths would note that at 2 poe per player per hand, or 20 poe per hand, 20,000 poe would do...how many hands?

As for what I am looking for, a basic adherence to the odds of poker probability. Any even semi decent RNG would produce only a small variance in poker probability, a program which predetermines which player is going to win will throw poker probability out of the window and we will see a wide variance, that is all I am after.
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Accord! or No Accord!
http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=82067

Also running poker tournaments!
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[Nov 24, 2007 8:06:00 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Cardinalsin9



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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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7 months of basicaly no good hands or getting rivered , suddenly 1day-week get absalutly great hands and make a ton, then back to 7 odd months of constantly loosing....


This reminds me of a Quote out of a fan-movie about another deviously addictive game.

1st Quote - 'If this game isn't broken, how am I losing to noobs? did I get worse?' 'No, you were never any good'

2nd Quote - If you can't see a sucker at the table when you sit down, then the sucker at the table is probably you

I can regularly make 100k in a few hours at a poker table here in YPP. I play only marginally looser than I would in real life, and I play a load more agressively on here.

This test SHOULD help to figure out wether or not the game is running at close to the odds/probabilities of a real poker game, or not.
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Accord! or No Accord!
http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=82067

Also running poker tournaments!
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[Nov 24, 2007 8:30:23 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Cardinalsin9



Joined: Nov 5, 2007
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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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/volunteer Cypherigon

If there are enough slots. =] Where will it be?


Hopefully aboard one of my crew's GF's, need to get permission from the cap'n first. If not I have a few other venues.
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Accord! or No Accord!
http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=82067

Also running poker tournaments!
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[Nov 24, 2007 8:36:10 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
cypherigon



Joined: Sep 6, 2007
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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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Greetings all, Pyratwench from Viridian here.

-----

Currently Registered for Test!

1- Eguee
2- Nunny
3- Jjack
4- Neapol_Neap *charname please*
5- Cypherigon
6-
7-
8-
9-

I will be running Screenshots for the test. Keeping tabs on all starting hands and what won the pot.

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I want to run a test on PP, essentially I have heard nothing but complaints that it is rigged, and dodgy, for about 2 months.

I personally believe that it is down simply to the fact that YPP players are much looser and as such call with a wider variety of hands. They are also more likely to chase things such as inside straight draws, and others.

What I want is, 3 hours of your time. All you need is some BASIC poker experience. Enough to know what hands are what. This will allow me to run very quickly through a number of hands.

I will be providing enough PoE to run fully through my test. *roughly 20,000 PoE* and at the end of it I should be able to accurately judge wether Pirate Poker is not accurate. People participating will NOT be allowed to keep the PoE, this is purely to test Pirate Poker.

A test date will be decided when I have enough people signed up, I need 9.

Time of testing will be around 6pm server time.


About what time will this be in EST?
[Nov 24, 2007 2:34:56 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Faulkston

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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Server follows PST/PDT, so 6pm server time at the moment is 9pm EST.

Faulkston,
:-)
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Avatar by Carribean
[Nov 24, 2007 4:03:54 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/search [Link]  Go to top 
Dylan

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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Nobody seems to have mentioned that a computer's pseudo-random number generator is a lot better at randomising than any normal human shuffler.

Although the effect isn't as large for poker as in a game where all cards are dealt (whist, bridge, spades, hearts) and then stacked together, it still exists, I expect.

It is "real-life" shuffling which is "rigged". Now you know.
[Nov 24, 2007 4:26:46 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
tanonev

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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Nobody seems to have mentioned that a computer's pseudo-random number generator iscan be a lot better at randomising than any normal human shuffler.


Fixed. As I've mentioned before, a 2-line code change exists that can increase the number of decks accessible by their PRNG by at least 2^100.

As it stands, the proportion of decks that can possibly be dealt by the PRNG to the number of possible decks is bounded from above by (2 ^ 48) / (52!). (You can copy and paste that into a Google search to see a decimal value for that. Let's just say you have a better chance of tagging an air molecule in the room you're sitting in than you do of randomly shuffling a deck that the PRNG is capable of creating.)
Granted, we don't care about the bottom 27 cards in the deck, so multiply the above figure by 27! to get the proportion of poker deals that Y!PP is capable of dealing out. You still would be better off playing the lottery than searching for representable decks.

Some more interesting figures:
If you are colluding with another player, by the time all 5 community cards are out, the knowledge of those 9 cards is sufficient to identify all face-down cards at the table the majority of the time.
If my speculation about the usage of Collections.shuffle() in Y!PP is correct, the attack I described elsewhere (I'm too lazy to search for the thread, let alone implement it :P) allows you to identify all face-down cards at the table the majority of the time, just using your hole cards.
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Tanonev on all oceans; currently exploring Meridian.
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[Nov 24, 2007 5:36:35 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.alpha-slash.com [Link]  Go to top 
ihateEVAN

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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As mentioned before in this thread, those who think it is rigged are comparing Pirate poker to Live poker. The main difference they forget is that you see A LOT more hands per hour online than you do in Real Life. So on PP you get more opportunities to see some really whacky flops. But people never notice all the mediocre flops in between, which selective memory interferes with. If Pirate poker is rigged, than so is every online poker site.

It's not rigged.
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Freak says, "To Earn Pieces Of Eight, type /Who, then see who the OM ison duty and then type/(OM name)(space) may I please have poe, those meanies on the poker tables won't give me any"
[Nov 24, 2007 5:48:58 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Aenor

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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As for what I am looking for, a basic adherence to the odds of poker probability. Any even semi decent RNG would produce only a small variance in poker probability, a program which predetermines which player is going to win will throw poker probability out of the window and we will see a wide variance, that is all I am after.

You nned to specify, in advance, exactly what you're testing. You need to state your null hypotheses, and you need to specify the p-level you're going to test for. If you don't know exactly what you're trying to prove or disprove, you're wasting your time.

So, again, what is your mathematical definition of "rigged"?
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Mat on the Meridian Ocean

Thank you to everyone who loves Blacksmithing!
[Nov 24, 2007 7:39:15 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Renexz



Joined: Nov 15, 2007
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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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Id like to help you, about 75% of what i do in this game is poker, so yes i know how to poker,

Altho what time is the server at? i belive im GMT (+1).... At least something with +1 :P

tyvm, René
[Nov 25, 2007 4:11:29 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Cardinalsin9



Joined: Nov 5, 2007
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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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As for what I am looking for, a basic adherence to the odds of poker probability. Any even semi decent RNG would produce only a small variance in poker probability, a program which predetermines which player is going to win will throw poker probability out of the window and we will see a wide variance, that is all I am after.

You nned to specify, in advance, exactly what you're testing. You need to state your null hypotheses, and you need to specify the p-level you're going to test for. If you don't know exactly what you're trying to prove or disprove, you're wasting your time.

So, again, what is your mathematical definition of "rigged"?


why do I need to specify anything? All I want people to do is sit down and play hands. I've filled in enough non-techno babble, so we'll just leave it at that.
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-----
Accord! or No Accord!
http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?thread=82067

Also running poker tournaments!
-----
[Nov 25, 2007 4:03:52 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Faulkston

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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To avoid after the fact pattern detection, for one.

Faulkston,
shrugging
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[Nov 25, 2007 4:24:05 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/search [Link]  Go to top 
vanway

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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It is rigged, and I won't change my point of view. I'm sublime at poker in Sage, I play a lot, and have played RL poker a lot too. I always put the same example: The times of someone getting AA and another one getting KK in a 10 place table is much much more frequently than in RL poker, where this nearly never happens. You can see that hand too much in pp poker.
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GAME OVER

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[Nov 26, 2007 2:42:40 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
basso

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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It is rigged, and I won't change my point of view. I'm sublime at poker in Sage, I play a lot, and have played RL poker a lot too. I always put the same example: The times of someone getting AA and another one getting KK in a 10 place table is much much more frequently than in RL poker, where this nearly never happens. You can see that hand too much in pp poker.


This is exactly what I am talking about. Frankly, we don't need to "prove" anything. Many experienced players can just feel the difference between RL poker, and YPP poker. I don't care if it is rigged, I don't care what type of random card shuffler they use. My only point is that it is a bit off. For those of you who keep offering up the same arguments about loose play, and more hands seen online, trust me, we understand what you are saying. Those arguments certainly contribute to what we see, but they don't account for things like what Vanway and I are describing.
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Montage of Sage
Mads wrote: 
OK, now I'm convinced. The problem here is that you cannot understand plain English.

[Nov 26, 2007 3:46:33 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Aenor

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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This is exactly what I am talking about. Frankly, we don't need to "prove" anything. Many experienced players can just feel the difference between RL poker, and YPP poker.

Many people can "feel" a lot of things that aren't true. That's why human developed the scientific process, so that we could advance out of the dark ages and actually test ideas in a repeatable, objective way.

Anyway, it looks like I'm done with this thread, because this experiment is doomed to fail for two reasons. One, no one has defined in advance what hypotheses are going to be tested, so no meaningful results will be generated. Two, even if they did manage to prove that PPP is not rigged, the people who think it's rigged will not change their minds.

So, enjoy wasting a few hours of your time.
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Mat on the Meridian Ocean

Thank you to everyone who loves Blacksmithing!
[Nov 26, 2007 5:39:10 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
qwpzxjor1

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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Also agree.

If you want to test it because you are curious, then fair enough, but don't expect your findings to be believed by anyone else.

a) The ones who think it's rigged will argue your test wasn't thorough enough if you prove it's not.

b) The ones who think it is rigged will argue that your test wasn't thorough enough if you prove it is.

c) The Devs are not likely to change the way it works, regardless of your outcome.

d) The Devs are not likely to confirm whether you are right or wrong. And even if they do, a) or b) will still apply..


I say just enjoy poker the way it is. Yes, it may be rigged, but so long as it's rigged to be quite fair (ie. you hit a lucky river a reasonably equal amount of times you get beat by a lucky river) I can't see it really mattering.

I personally love hitting a lucky river, rewarding my guts for staying in the hand. If it happens against me, I will think the same of my opponent.
I would rather see that happen than have it so-called 'fair' where pocket A's never really lose.

Fun > Fairness.
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Whitewyvern wrote: 
For every American who mispells "Favour" and "Colour", there is a textspeak child abusing the letter U to balance things out.

[Nov 26, 2007 6:15:06 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
basso

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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I personally love hitting a lucky river, rewarding my guts for staying in the hand. If it happens against me, I will think the same of my opponent.
I would rather see that happen than have it so-called 'fair' where pocket A's never really lose.

Fun > Fairness.


Sorry, but you are missing the entire point of poker if you think in this way. Poker is about making the correct decision based on limited information. Staying in a hand when you are dominated, and then hitting one of 2 outs on the river (take AA vs 66 for instance, 6 hits on river), is not gutsy, it is stupid. By all means play your way against us, since over time, the skillful players will win. The reason I rarely river people, is because I rarely put myself in dominated situations. So yes, the lack of skill on YPP contributes to some of the things we see happening, but it certainly does not explain it all.

To Mat from Viridian, I have probably agreed with your posts the most in this thread. I have taken two college level statistical classes, and if I remembered how, I might actually test the number of suited flops theory I have. We all know people remember selective things, but I am no 14 year old who just got beat on the river. I have observed and played tons of poker in RL and in YPP, and I have yet to hear from anyone who plays in house games regularly. For the record it is not rigged, and it is not quite normal either.

I will take my leave of this thread now too. Those who think my way will not change their mind, and those who think it is "normal" will not sway either. Perhaps one day I will get bored and test some theories, using the correct statistical process and analysis of course.
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Montage of Sage
Mads wrote: 
OK, now I'm convinced. The problem here is that you cannot understand plain English.

[Nov 26, 2007 7:11:43 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Rossii

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i'll help out in this test (:
[Dec 7, 2013 3:40:41 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Twittly

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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i'll help out in this test (:

6 year bump?
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[Dec 7, 2013 3:47:00 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
xelto

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Re: Poker! Help Wanted. Reply to this Post
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i'll help out in this test (:

6 year bump?

It's one hellova test.
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Gurndigarn on Emerald Ocean
"Oh, come on. You jobbed onto a ship called the Cursed Isle Raider and you expected *refined*?"
[Dec 7, 2013 4:38:05 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
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