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Shinito

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so yesterday i remembered that i had made script for scooping up yoweb data and decided to finally put it to good use. so here we go

i used the flag fame page to get data on 45 flags that had 286 crews with at least one active member and from that i gathered 3371 pirate pages



    out of 50 islands 30 were owned by the 45 top flags and 9 belonged to the OMs
    autocratic crews made up the majority along with jobbers delight booty shares
    average restocking is 14.5% with about 30% of crews going all the way to 20%
    i found 1727 named familiars and 516 happy owners
    about 1/3 of pirates are in crews with 20 members of less
    cabin person is almost never used while every other rank excluding captain takes up about 22%
    this shifts towards less SO's if we look only at crews with more than 20 members
    flags tend do be divided 60-30-10 member-royal-monach wise



here we have skill distribution along different skill sets (for narrow+ only) along with skill-experience distribution(this is pretty meaningless despite the good looks)


we also have this chart to prove that sailing is the best puzzle (its actually carp)

If you have any questions or request feel free to ask. Ill try to do individual puzzles eventually and maybe one day ill get around to trophies.
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
[Apr 4, 2017 5:38:05 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Tygas



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What ocean is this for? Emerald?
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Mackmaine on Cerulean
[Apr 4, 2017 1:43:51 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Jcmorgan6

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What ocean is this for? Emerald?


Correct
Shinito wrote: 
out of 50 islands 30 were owned by the 45 top flags and 9 belonged to the OMs

(OMs own 9 islands on Emerald, 7 on Meridian, and 6 Cerulean)
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Jjc on Emerald
Jc on Obsidian (regrettably)
My Kraken bombing guide
CI booty division stats
[Apr 4, 2017 2:38:17 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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(OMs own 9 islands on Emerald, 7 on Meridian, and 6 Cerulean)

I count 8 on meridian and 7 on cerulean
wayne@hipbone: $ ./list_island_info -ocean emerald | grep ringer
Accompong Island Acco Pleiades out mkt none ringer
Chachapoya Island Chac Orion lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Cromwell Island Crom Gull out mkt none ringer
Descartes Isle Desc Pelican lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Greenwich Island Gree Pelican lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Halley Island Hall Pelican out mkt none ringer
Lincoln Island Linc Gull lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Quetzal Island Quet Orion lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Wensleydale Wens Gull lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
wayne@hipbone: $ ./list_island_info -ocean meridian | grep ringer
Barracuda Island Barr Lacerta med mkt fruit mkt ringer
Chelydra Cove Chel Lacerta med mkt fruit mkt ringer
Chrysalis Island Chry Lacerta med mkt fruit mkt ringer
Dragon's Nest Drag Jade lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Lima Island Lima Jade lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Sakejima Island Sake Jade lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Saltstraum Rock Salt Lacerta med mkt fruit mkt ringer
Typhoon Island Typh Jade out mkt none ringer
wayne@hipbone: $ ./list_island_info -ocean cerulean | grep ringer
Alpha Island Alpha Diamond lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Dragon's Nest Drag Jade lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Eclipse Island Ecli Jet out mkt none ringer
Epsilon Island Epsi Emerald lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Lima Island Lima Jade lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Sakejima Island Sake Jade lg mkt fruit mkt ringer
Typhoon Island Typh Jade out mkt none ringer
wayne@hipbone: $

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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Apr 4, 2017 3:37:31 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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Yea this is emerald and 3371 is about 29% of the whole ocean
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
[Apr 4, 2017 10:13:09 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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ok round 2




Here all of the piracy puzzles, all of them except for patching seem to follow a similar curve (note that all of these stats are for pirates with broad of higher experience and that the duty average doesn’t include SF and rumble)



Here's carousing + SF and rumble. The only odd thing is the high amount of proficient/able hearts and spades players.



And finally crafting.
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
[Apr 9, 2017 4:28:19 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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Calculated the approximate standard deviations for crafting and duty puzzles. Carousing is similar but is heaver on the <Ren side.

Able - Prof - Dist - Resp - Mast - Ren - Gm - Leg - Ult
-1.5 -0.45 0 0.45 0.85 1.15 1.5 2.2


e: now with a graph

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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
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[Edit 2 times, last edit by Shinito at Apr 9, 2017 10:52:33 AM]
[Apr 9, 2017 6:50:45 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Thank you for collecting and posting this stuff. You fed my data junkie addiction for at least a week. ;-)

first, I've posted the following a few times now:

--------

According to this post by lizthegray, it appears that the break down is as follows:
Able            0 - 25%
Proficient 25 - 50% *
Distinguished 50 - 65%
Respected 65 - 75%
Master 75 - 85%
Renowned 85 - 90%
Grand-Master 90 - 95%
Legendary 95 - 99%
Ultimate 99 - 100%
* Note: Proficient was added after Liz posted this info. The 25% cut comes from another post by a ringer that I can't find right now.

Note that in the case of ties, you are put in the lower category. So ultimates are at most the top 1% and in the case of bnav where liz posted this info, they were all tied and thus there were no Ultimates.

This "ties drop you down" means that there are at least 25% of the pirates that actively puzzle that are only Able.

There is at least one other post floating around by a ringer where they state something to the effect of "Ultimates are the top 1%, but ables are *not* the bottom 1%".

-------

Ok, so why don't your numbers line up with what the game says? Well, I can see a few differences.

1) The game counts players who have actually puzzled in the last 10 days for its distribution, but there is no way for you to tell who has puzzled. A lot of people try to puzzle up their standings and then leave them, so an Ultimate on a pirates page may not have been updated in months

2) You filter out the low experience levels, it isn't surprising that people get better with experience, shifting the whole curve up.

3) Not everyone is in a crew, let alone a flag. This is probably especially true for newer players with lower experience/standings.

None of these make your numbers "wrong". You are clear with what you are measuring and there is no reason your goals for ;your study need to match OOO's goalds in setting the puzzle curves.

I've actually done somewhat similar things in the past, but I never published the full details See try 1 and try 2. Actually that thread is full of people's ideas about what "should" be measured, some are interesting ideas, some are, uh, less so.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Apr 9, 2017 6:47:02 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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Thanks for the post, it made me consider a few things. I've redone stats calculations for >Novice and they seem to match up with what you have posted (It would seem that 50% split is in prof-dist while for broad+ its dist-resp which makes me wanna check how well performance increases with experience). Also note that SF and rumble go to carousing and not pirate.


The links you posted gave me a idea to check how many pirates have at least one pirate stat above a certain rank. (SF and rumble included)


This is whole is just me learning statistics and making tools for when obsidian comes out so thanks for the advice.

PS. Trophies this coming up someday once i can be bothered to write code for that.
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
[Apr 10, 2017 3:38:31 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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The links you posted gave me a idea to check how many pirates have at least one pirate stat above a certain rank. (SF and rumble included)

Your value of 59.74% of all pirates having at least one puzzle at master or above is quite a bit lower than what I found with 79.49% (314 out of 395). But then, I was measure pirates that were actually on ships, and that could change things quite a bit.

 
PS. Trophies this coming up someday once i can be bothered to write code for that.

One of the things I keep telling myself to do is to survey the trophies and see if anyone has some that aren't in the ypppedia. I've also wanted to check out monthly seals vs jolly rogers to see how may pirates there are with all the monthly seals.

But, I've been telling myself to do that for years and I'm too lazy.

edit:

One of the other things I've wondered about is correlation between puzzles. Such as, if you have Renowned in one puzzle, what is the chance that you are just good at puzzles and more standings at Renowned or better, or are puzzles completely independent? Also, do some puzzles have higher correlation that others, such as TH vs Bilge or Distilling vs Rigging? The latter has come up in monster fray (skellie and zombies) discussions. Since you can only see the missions if you are "good enough", but since some people don't like PvP, they never get the missions. Are there other puzzles that make good proxies for SF/rumble?
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by wrs1864b at Apr 10, 2017 12:39:45 PM]
[Apr 10, 2017 12:22:47 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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But then, I was measure pirates that were actually on ships, and that could change things quite a bit.

It might also be the case that people puzzles more back then. Also did you do this on a sub ocean because that might also influence things. (I might consider looking at how Cerulean compares to Emerald)

 
One of the other things I've wondered about is correlation between puzzles. Such as, if you have Renowned in one puzzle, what is the chance that you are just good at puzzles and more standings at Renowned or better, or are puzzles completely independent? Also, do some puzzles have higher correlation that others, such as TH vs Bilge or Distilling vs Rigging? The latter has come up in monster fray (skellie and zombies) discussions. Since you can only see the missions if you are "good enough", but since some people don't like PvP, they never get the missions. Are there other puzzles that make good proxies for SF/rumble?

I wouldn?t be surprised if there was correlation between any 2 puzzles simply because people who are good at X have played the game longer and gotten the chance to get better at Y.

e: i noticed that flag ids are sequential so that makes getting a larger chunk of the population in the net easier. and also makes me dedicate this thread to the newest flag and crew
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Shinito at Apr 10, 2017 1:23:42 PM]
[Apr 10, 2017 1:20:08 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Jcmorgan6

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This thread is very interesting, keep it up <33

 
Such as, if you have Renowned in one puzzle, what is the chance that you are just good at puzzles and more standings at Renowned or better, or are puzzles completely independent?


I think you're very likely to find people good at rigs are also good at the majority of patch/bilge/dnav/sw/bs, if not all of the other puzzles in that list, and will likely have around renowned SF too, I couldn't think why though ;)

 
e: i noticed that flag ids are sequential so that makes getting a larger chunk of the population in the net easier. and also makes me dedicate this thread to the newest flag and crew
This makes me wonder which flag is the oldest while remaining not completely dormant!

Edit: With regards to the first quote, and on a less cynical note, I think you might find pirates good at distilling, are better at more puzzles than a pirate good at one of the easier crafting puzzles, say foraging or blacksmithing. Essentially, whether pirates good at the 'harder' puzzles are more well rounded, I had a quick look at the ult lists, and this did seem the case! Not too sure how labour alts would swing this though.
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Jjc on Emerald
Jc on Obsidian (regrettably)
My Kraken bombing guide
CI booty division stats
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Jcmorgan6 at Apr 10, 2017 2:51:46 PM]
[Apr 10, 2017 2:41:40 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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I've decided to do some quick testing.
Converting each stat into these numbers:
"Able":0,"Proficient":27, "Distinguished":55, "Respected":69, "Master":79, "Renowned":88, "Grand-Master":92, "Legendary":96, "Ultimate":99

I compared Bilging and TH:

Red line is bilging compared to every other puzzle and blue is bilge vs TH.

Feel free to ask questions, will come back tomorrow with answers and better graphs.
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
[Apr 10, 2017 3:20:24 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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But then, I was measure pirates that were actually on ships, and that could change things quite a bit.

It might also be the case that people puzzles more back then. Also did you do this on a sub ocean because that might also influence things.

I surveyed Viridian because it had lots of players and the ocean has just three symmetric archipelagos.

 
(I might consider looking at how Cerulean compares to Emerald)

that would be cool!


Thorkill wrote: 
e: i noticed that flag ids are sequential so that makes getting a larger chunk of the population in the net easier. and also makes me dedicate this thread to the newest flag and crew

Jcmorgan wrote: 
This makes me wonder which flag is the oldest while remaining not completely dormant!

I once scraped yoweb for flags/crews that weren't completely dormant. I waited one second between queries, just to be nice to the servers. I found the results interesting enough to post to a thread. If I remember correctly, there is a gap between Midnight flag IDs and cobalt flag IDs. There might be a gap between those and flags IDs of thosecreated new on Cerulean.

Personally, I would look at crews because there is a noticeable number of crews that aren't in a flag.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Apr 10, 2017 5:13:20 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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cerulean is filled with small flags and crews and my script isint that fast so going through all of that would take several hours. and going through flags only is just a for speed.

e: after careful analysis ive concluded that people who are generally good at the game will generally be good at swordfighting. Shocking!
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Shinito at Apr 11, 2017 6:08:43 AM]
[Apr 11, 2017 4:54:33 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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got 3k trophy pages AMA
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
[Apr 11, 2017 10:22:30 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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Here the list of all the trophies by frequency : https://pastebin.com/raw/4YPA6JYW

Mean: 81.9344408187
Median: 55
SD: 82.5822609605

Also the prize for most trophies go to Delores who seems intent on finding the maze all the trophies.

e: fixed some stuff
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Shinito at Apr 13, 2017 5:45:15 AM]
[Apr 13, 2017 5:31:28 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Gunnerfreak

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Shinito wrote: 
Also the prize for most trophies go to Delores who seems intent on finding the maze all the trophies.

Now what about Cerulean? I've nearly 400 Trophies. :3
----------------------------------------
Gunnerfreak on Cerulean <- Home ocean.
AKA Gunnerfreak on Obsidian (new ocean!), Ice, Emerald, Opal, and Jade,
Gunnerfreak-East on Emerald,
Gunnerfreak-West on Cerulean, and
Gunnergunner on Meridian.
Also a Respe-ranked YPPedia-wiki freak.
[Apr 13, 2017 6:14:31 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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She has 574 :^) (Are there really that many of them?)

also graph

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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
[Apr 13, 2017 6:20:29 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Here the list of all the trophies by frequency :

Interesting... thanks!

One thing that surprised me is that I checked the "rare" trophies, that is, the ones with only one pirate having them, and found them to be surprisingly common. It appears that there is a really long tail to the distribution of trophies and it would help if you got a LOT more samples to find them. For example, only two Pink Hearts seen? I can think of easily twice that off the top of my head. I guess Emerald might be the wrong ocean to look for rare trophies since Sage/Hunter are much newer than Midnight, there could easily be trophies that can only be found on Cerulean.

Oh, and you might want to post some of this info to the yppedia forum and/or the TTQ&A trophy speculation thread.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Apr 13, 2017 6:56:36 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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It appears that there is a really long tail to the distribution of trophies and it would help if you got a LOT more samples to find them.

I have about 1/3 of active emerald players and adding dormant players would introduce bias that would be hard to account for.
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
[Apr 13, 2017 7:29:41 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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Box Plots!

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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
[Apr 14, 2017 5:02:22 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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a couple of comments:

First, could you please explain what that plot means in more detail? It looks like a box plot.

So, the red line is the median, the point where half the pirates have more trophies and have have fewer. (This can be quite different than the arithmetic mean, commonly called "the average").

The top and the bottom of the boxes usually are the first and third quartile, that is, the top is the point that is more than 75% of all pirates and the bottom is 25%.

The "whiskers", can mean a number of different things. Sometimes they are the absolute minimum and maximum, but probably not in this case. Or it could be related to the standard deviation, or the a much larger percentile than the quartile boxes, or the IQR, or something else.

The dots are usually the "outliers", that is, the data points that don't fall between the whiskers. This is how I can tell that the whiskers don't represent the absolute min/max.

Second, whether to include dormant pirates in your trophy survey depends on what you are trying to do. If you are looking for trophies that might not show up in the yppedia, then you certainly should look at dormant pirates. If you want to show what a pirate you meet on the dock will likely look like, then you should exclude dormant pirates. If you want want to tell what a pirate will look like after they have played a certain number of years, I think you probably still want to include dormant pirates. *shrug* If I want to see something different that what you want, I should conduct my own survey, but I'm too lazy for that.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
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Gunnerfreak

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wrs1864b wrote: 
If you are looking for trophies that might not show up in the yppedia, then you certainly should look at dormant pirates.

Actually, I'd really like to know if there are more Trophies than what's on YPPedia. I wonder if there are Iron/Steel Trophies for Patching....
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Gunnerfreak on Cerulean <- Home ocean.
AKA Gunnerfreak on Obsidian (new ocean!), Ice, Emerald, Opal, and Jade,
Gunnerfreak-East on Emerald,
Gunnerfreak-West on Cerulean, and
Gunnergunner on Meridian.
Also a Respe-ranked YPPedia-wiki freak.
[Apr 14, 2017 6:49:39 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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It's a generic box plot consisting of median, Q1,Q3, min, max (1.5*IQR) and outliers.

I'd imagine i could find crazy amount of pirates just by iterating through everyone hearties (speaking of which I just updated my scraping tool). Will try it.

 
Actually, I'd really like to know if there are more Trophies than what's on YPPedia. I wonder if there are Iron/Steel Trophies for Patching....

I doubt you will find anything that is not in the game files already.
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Shinito at Apr 14, 2017 7:10:24 AM]
[Apr 14, 2017 7:08:11 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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welp, getting 22k pirate profiles with trophies wasn’t super fun but i got this

https://pastebin.com/raw/MXmwkbg0

849 unique trophies. if you find any interesting ones tell me and ill find the people responsible
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
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patgangster

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Couldn't see any trophy that wasn't already known - unless it's hidden somewhere but 50+ people have it somehow, I haven't scrolled up past that.
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TriplePat, Joining the great obsidian migration.
[Apr 14, 2017 12:38:56 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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if you find any interesting ones tell me and ill find the people responsible

:-<

I went through the yppedia trophy page and didn't find anything. The list you created is still missing a bunch. oh well. It is good to double check stuff. Your names and the ones in the yppedia match up, except for one capitalization error in the yppedia that I didn't bother to fix.

thanks!
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Apr 14, 2017 1:44:12 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shinito

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I dunno whats the state of the art for jinxed idol research but here my contribution.

Chance to have a Jinxed idol by age in active population sample:
0:0.013642564802182811
1:0.028112449799196786
2:0.10828025477707007
3:0.12643678160919541
4:0.11594202898550725
5:0.11475409836065574
6:0.11805555555555555
7:0.16981132075471697
8:0.18716577540106952
9:0.21256038647342995
10:0.20353982300884957
11:0.2716049382716049

And in general population sample:
0:0.01544729248005432 
1:0.05277329025309639
2:0.06103896103896104
3:0.06941031941031942
4:0.0775462962962963
5:0.08950800237107291
6:0.10548523206751055
7:0.11320754716981132
8:0.11921708185053381
9:0.1436950146627566
10:0.16992353440951571
11:0.20833333333333334


I'd say that playing the game for longer makes you more likely to get the Jinxed Idol but that's also true for every other trophy .
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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
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Shinito

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Re: click here if you like numbers Reply to this Post
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questions away!


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Thorkill on Malachite 2.0 Obsidian
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