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marundel

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Re: Doubloon prices are.. Reply to this Post
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There are many more examples... but the real meat of it is that there are about 60%-70% of players "in the middle". These are the players who may sub for a couple of months to make some offline labor profit... who may buy doubs just to see what buying a black box feels like... who may want to try the bnav mission or occasionally do an SMH (rather than fanatically jump on two or three a day... every day). In short - the casual player.


This statement stands at odds with data from Cleaver himself, namely that 90% of players never pay a single penny. Now it's possible to reconcile the statements, perhaps by distinguishing between active and inactive players; regardless, if you're gonna throw around numbers like that, you're gonna need a citation.

On the contrary... I see nothing in my post that requires a citation, and nothing that is diametrically opposed to Cleaver's post from a year ago.

These are the players who may sub for a couple of months to make some offline labor profit... who may buy doubs just to see what buying a black box feels like... who may want to try the bnav mission or occasionally do an SMH...

You wish to get wrapped up in numbers of casual players; but numbers aside, do you disagree with the concept of player vs. company motivations (which was the actual point of the post)?
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Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean
Prince, Super Awesomeness
SO, Boochin' Drunks

Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge
[Aug 16, 2013 3:58:40 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.thehomebrewstore.com    meadbrewer [Link]  Go to top 
tanonev

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Re: Doubloon prices are.. Reply to this Post
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Actually, I do. Unless the point of your post is "not every single person involved has exactly the same motivation", which NO ONE claimed and which is vacuously true (much like how you gave a random statistic that is vacuously true), the numbers make ALL the difference. OF COURSE there exist people who, as you claim, would purchase more doubloons if the PoE-dub rate were higher due to getting more "bang for their buck". OF COURSE there exist people who, as I will claim now, would purchase more doubloons if the PoE-dub rate were LOWER due to a certain amount of PoE they need. OF COURSE there exist people who, as Algol claims, stop playing the game once the PoE-dub rate gets too high and the grind required to get the dubs they want to access the content they want exceeds the time they're willing to spend. And of course there also exist people who stop playing the game once the PoE-dub rate gets too LOW and they get access to the content they want too fast for them to value it and keep playing it. The important question is not WHETHER each of these groups exist, but rather HOW LARGE each of these groups are, and HOW MUCH influence they have on both doubloon purchasing and doubloon sinking.
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Tanonev on all oceans; currently exploring Meridian.
Puppetar by Tilinka
[Aug 16, 2013 1:17:36 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.alpha-slash.com [Link]  Go to top 
marundel

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I fundamentally disagree with your assessment. Your implication seems to be "without knowing the number of people in each motivational category, OOO should intervene in the player-driven doubloon exchange to make things as beneficial for the free player as possible."

IMO, the free player is valuable to the company for only two reasons: they provide jobbers for the paying players which in turn helps keep paying players happy; they purchase doubloons that paying players put up on the exchange, possibly encouraging paying players to purchase more for real money.

In the first case, it doesn't matter what the exchange rate on the exchange is. In the second case, a higher PoE price on the exchange is a better deal for the paying player, as they get more PoE for their $$. Doubloons don't expire, so if they sell a little slower at the higher PoE cost, nothing is lost. I don't need numbers to prove that - the evidence is in the fact that the exchange rate is at its current level and doubloons are still being traded.
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Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean
Prince, Super Awesomeness
SO, Boochin' Drunks

Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge
[Aug 17, 2013 3:50:01 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.thehomebrewstore.com    meadbrewer [Link]  Go to top 
BobJanova

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I don't think you understand doubloon ocean economics. Although most of the real money is spent by a few big fish, the flow of real money is driven by the desire of those big spenders to buy things, which generally means PoE. That means that a lower exchange rate is going to make them drop more real money to get the same PoE.

Another way to look at it is that doubloon usage is driven by demand. Whenever I buy a new outfit or badge, I'm 'sinking' $2-$4 of doubloons. It's primarily the demand for new in-game stuff which gets doubloons bought with RL money. The feedback loop that keeps the price from going crazy is that if it's too high, I'll go without a sword, or use a bravery alt, or the many other ways people dodge doubloon spending, which reduces the throughput of doubloons and therefore of real money.

Both analyses there point at lower doubloon exchange prices being better for OOO on a purely financial level, as well as a game health level (because 90% of players are freeloading, if you make it hard to do so you kill the ocean in population terms). OOO recognise this which is why they brought in black boxes. There's an exception for directly buying shinies, i.e. dropping $5 RL to get a particular item, hence gold boxes, though they have a bad effect on the exchange.

Finally just to restate the point from earlier: doubloons are a consumable item in several areas, and high doubloon prices result in high prices elsewhere. Ever wonder why you see fewer painted ships on green oceans? ... paint is 5x more expensive (for the cheap colours at least) thanks to the doubloon charge. HS is financially unviable for a lot of people because of the 75 doubloon (about 180k PoE) charge for sinking a frig in there. Ships are 3 times as expensive, and sloops more like 5 times more, putting them further out of reach as attainable early game goals. Clothing, swords and bludgeons cost several times more as well. Even rum and shot end up costing more as doub prices rise; most of the cost of these items is labour and labour prices have a floor set by doubloon prices.

Eventually we'd see foraging become worthless, as the expected value of a forage hour (somewhere around 35 PoE) wouldn't pay for a badge, if doubs reached 6000 PoE. Realistically it would stop being worth people operating forage operations at probably around 4000 PoE.
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Bobjanova on Viridian and Malachite
Shops and stalls with fair and profitable wages for all: Jubilee, Napi, Chelydra
Stripped/Barely Dressed (Malachite)
Phantasm/Reign of Chaos (Viridian)
[Aug 18, 2013 4:20:20 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
marundel

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Re: Doubloon prices are.. Reply to this Post
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I understand doubloon economics just fine. I also note that your conclusary statements support the theory of motivation vs. direct reimbursement. First, a bravery alt still requires a bravery badge - so that's a wash. Second, the original point made many posts ago was that the cost of a bravery badge was harder to get on the exchange based on the payouts in SMH (a point you echo with your comment on HS) - same with a labor badge being justified when shop jobs don't pay enough to make it worthwhile. I assume that well over half the carousers are also on the losing end of a badge cost, since gambling tends to concentrate wealth in the hands of a very few. The difference is motivation - if someone is motivated to go on SMH, or puzzle in a shop, or carouse in the inn, and their PoE return isn't covering the cost, they are more likely to go ahead and buy a small doub package because it allows them to do what they enjoy doing. I see it all the time in the FB games when special items are available during a three-day event... but the only way to generate enough points to get the special item is to buy FB Coins to do the immediate repairs on troops/ships/facilities in order to be able to turn them around for more points. People that would never spend real cash in the games under normal circumstances will drop $5 or $10 on a limited coin package to get the one-time good deal. Lastly, you try to make the point that lower exchange prices will encourage the "big spenders" to put more doubs on the exchange... but that doesn't check with basic economic practices. Buy low - sell high, supply and demand, profit margin vs. cash flow, etc. The issue of volume sales doesn't come into play if the motive of the player is to get maximum PoE per dollar on the exchange vs. maximum PoE per hour/day/month on the exchange. There may in fact be players whose motivation is a quick sale, but I would put forth the assumption that 4000 PoE per dollar is not as motivating as 8000 PoE per dollar for a large percentage of the paying customers.

In the end, it still comes down to the basic truth - if the PoE price on the exchange is more than people are willing to pay, the price will eventually drop (supply and demand). If the free players don't want to wait for that to happen, then they always have the option of using real currency - doubloons never expire, after all. I bought 1000 of them two years ago, and haven't spent any yet. I logged in just a few minutes ago, and low and behold - the doubloons are still there. ...but as long as you have some free players willing to pay the high PoE cost, the paying players will still post them on the exchange at the higher PoE cost.
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Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean
Prince, Super Awesomeness
SO, Boochin' Drunks

Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge
[Aug 18, 2013 8:24:27 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.thehomebrewstore.com    meadbrewer [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Re: Doubloon prices are.. Reply to this Post
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I understand doubloon economics just fine. {...}
First, a bravery alt still requires a bravery badge - so that's a wash.

No, apparently you *don't* understand dub economics just fine.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Aug 18, 2013 8:31:05 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
BobJanova

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Re: Doubloon prices are.. Reply to this Post
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The problem is that most free players take the other option: spend fewer doubs.

Regarding bravery alts, I'm not sure you got the dodge there. A bravery alt saves doubloons because instead of having a main character with all the badges (and therefore they all age every day), you only age your bravery badge on the day you want to SMH.
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Bobjanova on Viridian and Malachite
Shops and stalls with fair and profitable wages for all: Jubilee, Napi, Chelydra
Stripped/Barely Dressed (Malachite)
Phantasm/Reign of Chaos (Viridian)
[Aug 18, 2013 8:31:43 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
marundel

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Re: Doubloon prices are.. Reply to this Post
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The problem is that most free players take the other option: spend fewer doubs.

Regarding bravery alts, I'm not sure you got the dodge there. A bravery alt saves doubloons because instead of having a main character with all the badges (and therefore they all age every day), you only age your bravery badge on the day you want to SMH.

Yeah, I got that... my point was you still had to purchase the badge in the first place. I do the same thing with the really expensive swords and bludgeons.
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Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean
Prince, Super Awesomeness
SO, Boochin' Drunks

Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge
[Aug 19, 2013 6:26:02 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.thehomebrewstore.com    meadbrewer [Link]  Go to top 
xelto

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Re: Doubloon prices are.. Reply to this Post
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The problem is that most free players take the other option: spend fewer doubs.

Regarding bravery alts, I'm not sure you got the dodge there. A bravery alt saves doubloons because instead of having a main character with all the badges (and therefore they all age every day), you only age your bravery badge on the day you want to SMH.

Yeah, I got that... my point was you still had to purchase the badge in the first place. I do the same thing with the really expensive swords and bludgeons.

It sill decreases the amount of doubloons sunk. I haven't bought a new parlor badge in something like a year. Once in the day, I bought them on a monthly basis.
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Gurndigarn on Emerald Ocean
"Oh, come on. You jobbed onto a ship called the Cursed Isle Raider and you expected *refined*?"
[Aug 19, 2013 6:59:31 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Vorky

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The only way the OP could achieve reduced Doubloon prices is.
1) Buy a lot of them with real money
2) Dump them onto the exchange at the price he wants them for sale at.

<joke alert>
Due to the way the OP sounds like a politician, I expect that it will only be campaigning on this platform, and if elected either deny that he promised this, or to pass an ineffective rule that can't be policed that pirates aren't allowed to sell Doubloons above an arbitrary limit
[Aug 19, 2013 5:24:51 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Tidus2iii



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Welcome to Cerulean, the ocean of opportunities and cheap stuff.
(And a lack of people because ypp gets all their money from dub oceans so stopped giving us greenies)
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Blits ~ Cerulean
[Aug 29, 2013 3:33:34 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
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