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tanonev

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Re: Botting Reply to this Post
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You're missing an important part of SF mechanics. Whenever you break something, there's an animation. You have to wait for the animation to finish before you can resume playing. I've made videos of my playing (so I can analyze and find better ways to do things) and when I measured the time, I found that a typical Vegas takes ~6 seconds to animate. Now, I have also seen videos on YouTube from guys with speed hacks turned on. Their animations for similar combos are typically less than a second long. That means they get around 5 seconds more than I do, which they can use to build their next combo, while mine is still animating. And if you're any good at SF at all, you know you can do a LOT in 5 seconds, speed hack or not. This should br obvious, but when our combos hit each other, the cheater's animation for that is faster too, which will gain them another second or two. In the end, if they break smallish combos at a fast enough pace, they can totally flood my incoming queue since they can break more and more while I am waiting for animations to complete.


On the other hand, this is something that OOO could fix in the opposite direction by creating a "fast animations" option for SF.
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Tanonev on all oceans; currently exploring Meridian.
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[Mar 16, 2012 6:31:28 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.alpha-slash.com [Link]  Go to top 
Novatech



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I am a botter myself. I run around 12 - 20 clients at one time. I have been caught a few time but that was due to floors in my operation. In the past week alone i have made $150 worth of poe which is around 3 million. I sell i poe online on buypoe.com. If you think about this though when you see 800 people online. Is that really 800 people. what if you banned all botters. Because think about this i count for about 15 people.

I know a lot of the big players and trust me they all bot. You may not know it but they do and they are cleaver about it because its not a source of income from them so they only do it when they really need to puzzle. If you banned everyone who has used a bot there would be no1 left on the game and that is pretty much a fact.

If your on a smh and you thinking why are we loading so fast. Its most likely because i am loading all my accounts on the ship :D This speeds up loading time and everyone is a winner
[Mar 17, 2012 3:42:06 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mr_mover34

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If you banned everyone who has used a bot there would be no1 left on the game and that is pretty much a fact.


If we banned everyone who used a bot there would be plenty left to play the game. Sure ships may load slower but just maybe we could retain more new players. Botting hurts everyones gameplay. Anything you say to explain away your cheating doesn't change the fact that your cheating. I sure hope you and the rest of the botters keep getting caught.
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their, there, they're I always confuse which to use.


Mr Mover
[Mar 17, 2012 5:06:44 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
flewors

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everyone is a winner


except for the people who want to play but can't because botters like you screw up the scoring curve so they don't get jobbed.

and the others on your ship who lost the citadel or boarding fray because your bots all straight lined

and those who quit the game because playing against cheaters isn't much fun.

and everybody whose poe is now worth less because of inflation.

and three rings who don't make as much money and have to devote resources to catching and banning bots instead of improving the game.

so yay, everybody wins.
[Mar 17, 2012 6:42:48 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Karnisov

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Novatech wrote: 
I am a botter myself. I run around 12 - 20 clients at one time. I have been caught a few time but that was due to floors in my operation. In the past week alone i have made $150 worth of poe which is around 3 million. I sell i poe online on buypoe.com.


You're a cancerous piece of shit.

Novatech wrote: 

If you think about this though when you see 800 people online. Is that really 800 people. what if you banned all botters. Because think about this i count for about 15 people.


the lack of enforcement against botting/cheating hurts legit player retention. if it were better enforced then legit players would stick around/return and the player numbers wouldn't be too badly effected. you're very much overestimating your importance to the game's population numbers.

Novatech wrote: 

If your on a smh and you thinking why are we loading so fast. Its most likely because i am loading all my accounts on the ship :D This speeds up loading time and everyone is a winner


It destroys scoring curves for legit players. Instead of your personal puzzling making one entry into the scoring curve, the bots you run are each making their own separate entries into the curve and skewing it.

You've also admitted you're a poe seller, which hurts the game's revenues and leaves less money in the budget for developer time. I'm sure you're not the only botter selling poe either. This is another big reason to get serious about bot enforcement.
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Karnisov
flinging poo on the forums because its more fun than playing your broken game
[Mar 17, 2012 11:15:40 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
HellKitty1

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Re: Botting Reply to this Post
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Reporting does very little. Unless OOO's detectors pick it up, OMs won't do anything regardless of any attached evidence.


This is not true.

We examine every complaint we receive, and this most definitely includes botting complaints. And I can tell you that there are plenty of botters being banned pretty much every day as a result of a complaint (in addition to those being banned due to automated detection).

But - in the interest of everyone playing - we do require strong evidence before we permanently ban someone. And depending on the circumstances, being sufficiently certain about this with regards to bots is not an easy task.

That means that it can easily happen that a reporting player is certain of another player to be using a bot - perhaps because he told him, for example -, and yet we may not be able to find sufficiently hard proof of that.

If we were to just plain believe such claims, imagine how easy it would be for your arch enemy to just make up such a claim about you. You would not want us to ban you just because of that!

For that reason, we need to rely on other sources of evidence. We do have numerous systems that help us with that, and whenever we have the development resources to do so, we improve these.

These methods and systems are not perfect, there's no denying that - they really cannot be, due to the nature of the issue. But no player who uses a bot can ever be certain that he won't be facing a "You have been banned from our games. Reason: Botting" the next time he tries to log in.

And you reporting botters helps us achieve that, even if you perhaps don't see a result for each specific complaint you send.



Doesn't help when you ALLOW proven botters to come back after they've been caught.

Mass bilge bot bans 2009:
Pirate "George" is one of the many banned. George evades said ban and is also caught doing that. George admits to botting and cries and whines "oh I wont do it again, I'm sorry" blah blah... George is ALLOWED to come back!! And guess what, George is botting again and MULTIPLE /complains have done NOTHING because George is still running around.

(George's main was allowed back while the alt account was still banned for evading, btw. And said alt account was allowed to come back as well)

If you've proven someone is for sure botting, DON'T give them a slap on the wrist and let them come back... KEEP THEM GONE!

Botters of ALL types ruin the fun of Ypp. You wonder why so many legit players keep leaving/quitting? Because they get SICK of trying to "compete" with bots. I know I am sick of it, but I keep hoping that OOO will actually DO something instead of letting it continue. That hope dies a little every single day, sadly.

OOO, put some ban boots on and kick some botter tushie!!!



***Edit: George is just a name I used instead of the pirate's real name.***
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Hellkitty
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Hunter Ocean forever
Emerald Ocean and others
Hellkittyone on Obsidian
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by HellKitty1 at Mar 17, 2012 11:30:15 PM]
[Mar 17, 2012 11:00:30 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Trogo1

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In the past week alone i have made $150 worth of poe which is around 3 million.


I find this very concerning.
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Trogo on Viridian.
[Mar 18, 2012 8:46:45 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Lilcracker

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i think the developers are going easy on botters (the whole letting them back in stuff), because of the low player base.


Novatech, this seems to be a profit in RL money for you... so i dont expect ye to care about what yer doin to the game... just informing ye that it is a pest and is messing up the game for everyone who plays, at the same time also discrediting it as a "good" game. but as i said.. dont expect ye to care.
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[Mar 18, 2012 1:06:26 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
HellKitty1

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Re: Botting Reply to this Post
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i think the developers are going easy on botters (the whole letting them back in stuff), because of the low player base.



What was their excuse back in 2009 when the player base was much higher than now? Hunter usually had 1k+ people online at peak times, even on weekdays.

Low player base is NOT an "excuse" to let botters come back, not then and not now.

When people that have gotten banned for the lamest reasons (repeated spamming for example), and have been refused on all appeals to ever come back... and admitted and proven botters have been allowed back simply because they "cried" and said "sorry, I won't do it again", then something is definitely wrong somewhere. Can't blame low player base for that.
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Hellkitty
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Hunter Ocean forever
Emerald Ocean and others
Hellkittyone on Obsidian
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by HellKitty1 at Mar 18, 2012 1:50:01 PM]
[Mar 18, 2012 1:41:06 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Lilcracker

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When people that have gotten banned for the lamest reasons (repeated spamming for example),



lol yea i got suspended for 2 days for saying "how many blackspots does it take to blow up the world?" in greeter chat on emerald..... botters come back faster XD.


oh and what is considered "blackspot worthy" anyway? ... cause i see a bunch of people gettin blackspotted for leaving in battle and i dont think that they're connected to eachother at all XD
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[Mar 18, 2012 2:51:01 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Jongy5

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Endymion has a cool avatar.
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Musicologist : Self-proclaimed Master Minstrel mostly of Meridian

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[Mar 18, 2012 3:44:04 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Setsusa

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I know I don't dabble in forums often but, surely this will never be fixable? They'll just keep making them better and better, and unless OOO gets ahead of them, it'll just continue, no?

I hate to kind of swerve a thread, however, the problem with swordfight modders has been around for, well, 4/5+ years now? And that still isn't fixed and probably will never be, I'm not an amazing swordfighter but you'd still be surprised at the amount of people who do throw the accusation at me and people I know well, happens daily. It seems that people love to say it as an excuse for their mistakes, alright I laugh it off and show a few hearties, because it does make me chuckle considering I've played for over 6 years now, but it still isn't nice to be accused of it when you know that you worked hard to get that certain stat be it GM, Leg or Ult.

I can see the same thing happening with all the other puzzles and I can't see where the fun or pride is in it? Yes you have the trophy, no you didn't actually earn it, seems like they're cheating themselves out of some kind of a good feeling. Getting Ultimate in something used to be something to be proud about or something that made people go, 'Ohhh', nowdays it may as well be able.

Even still, I know that if you're faced against someone who uses mods/hacks/whatever you suspect, you can still beat them by out-playing them and you'll feel better for doing so. Just, don't take the easy way out and follow their lead to 'beat' them, it is after all, not really a person playing...
/whoneedsstatsanyway



Having played the same old people on different alts over and over, OOO's greatly reduced what they can do to cheat the game in the past four years. In fact, I'd be pretty confident to say they've gotten almost everything. People are just stupid and don't realize how fast you can actually play.

@Minigun: No, I've found myself wishing I could drop faster because quite often it seems too slow.

@I think Donsmythe, fast animations would be nice, but I highly doubt they'd ever be implemented.

@Botter: Congratulations. You're so bad at the game that in order to make enough PoE to profit, you have to cheat. Note that I have never sold PoE, but if I chose to from playing legitimately, I would make a lot more real life money than your sorry cheating ass.

While I do agree that a lot of the current population has or is violating the ToS, the entirety isn't. Fear of the game dying faster is not a reason to keep botters around, especially for OOO since botters selling PoE through such websites hurts their profits. Idiot.
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Cremate on Emerald.
Motou on Meridian.
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[Mar 19, 2012 9:40:15 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Sverdrup

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Re: Botting Reply to this Post
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Novatech wrote: 
I am a botter myself. I run around 12 - 20 clients at one time. I have been caught a few time but that was due to floors in my operation. In the past week alone i have made $150 worth of poe which is around 3 million.

This kid is as dumb as a toe nail:

$150 * 5 dubs/$ * 1800 poe/dub = 1,350,000 poe != 3,000,000 poe

With these math skills, I can see ye as a beggar on a street corner (or in prison, more likely) as soon as your parents stop feeding you. Your current math and critical thinking skills will disqualify you for any job. Even small scale drug peddlers do math better than you do, so, you would not even get that job, well, you may get it, but end up shot or in prison or badly screwed over by everyone.

It pays to be smart and pay attention to 4th grade math which I strongly advise you to review for your own benefit.
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Sverdrup, CPTN of Schroedinger's Cat, Heisenberg's Uncertainty, Meridian
[Mar 19, 2012 11:19:12 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Setsusa

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It pays to realize that on www.buypoe.com, which he referenced, PoE sells for around $50 per mill.

Still not condoning it, but really Sver, don't be stupid, obviously a third party service is going to have a lower value.
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Cremate on Emerald.
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[Mar 19, 2012 11:30:23 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Sverdrup

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Re: Botting Reply to this Post
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Setsusa wrote: 
It pays to realize that on xxx, which he referenced, PoE sells for around $50 per mill.

Still not condoning it, but really Sver, don't be stupid, obviously a third party service is going to have a lower value.


Whow, I must be living too well in the real world to be this ignorant on online gaming: So I can effectively buy 3-4 dubloons outside the game for the same price that I pay for 1 dubloon in game?

I take your word for it, especially since this village idiot never could figure out how a certain group of people/flags can pay so much in blockades. Maybe this is the answer then, but again, whow, a sinking feeling sets in.

Three new dilemmas arise, though:

1. Are the people who buy poe for $$$ this way not the true offenders, the big-time drug dealers? Put another way, is not the poor, dumb kid botting at the very bottom of this pyramid scheme of cheaters akin to the street-level peddler?

2. Does this not imply that OOO/Sega has a real economic incentive to shut down this black economy of cheaters (botters at the bottom, poe-buyers at the top) in order to stay viable?

3. Why am I still playing such a rigged game where cheating is rewarded at so many levels?

EDIT: Question #3 is rethorical, I know the answer and it has nothing to do with OOO/Sega. The community that I care about and enjoy being with could easily move to a different social setting that does not involve Y!PP. So, the rethorical question #3 is directed at OOO/Sega, not this forum.
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Sverdrup, CPTN of Schroedinger's Cat, Heisenberg's Uncertainty, Meridian
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Sverdrup at Mar 19, 2012 12:32:26 PM]
[Mar 19, 2012 12:21:03 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Setsusa

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Re: Botting Reply to this Post
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Three new dilemmas arise, though:

1. Are the people who buy poe for $$$ this way not the true offenders, the big-time drug dealers? Put another way, is not the poor, dumb kid botting at the very bottom of this pyramid scheme of cheaters akin to the street-level peddler?

2. Does this not imply that OOO/Sega has a real economic incentive to shut down this black economy of cheaters (botters at the bottom, poe-buyers at the top) in order to stay viable?

3. Why am I still playing such a rigged game where cheating is rewarded at so many levels?


1. I would say so, yes. When you then consider that the people who buy the PoE pay it out in blockades or use it to run SMH's where these botters load up tons of accounts running bots to make PoE and get that PoE back just to sell it back to the same people, who's the idiot in the equation? Frankly, if you have a moral set that doesn't care, and aren't getting caught, I would imagine botting in such a way could be very profitable.

2. Yes, and yet it's been a problem for years, I'm thinking at least five, but of course, it could have started as soon as the game went live. And, what has been done? Nothing. Attempts to talk about the issue, (likely including this one in the near future) are sunk and unreplied to. The fact is, OOO does not have the capability of keeping people from buying and selling PoE for out of game currency, they do have the ability to make it harder to bot undetected, but they've failed in that regard.

3. Lack of a better, free alternative?
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[Mar 19, 2012 12:35:21 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
amartino

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Yep, bilge botting (and now Rigging bots) have always been a chronic issue, but have definitely ramped up in the last few weeks. Went on a few Xebec HS's and laughed to see 6 of 8 bilge spots consistently getting Increds each DR. Some are definitely legit (elite jobber screening goin on). But others are definitely not. Ya know, the one's who never volunteer to defend, don't thank anyone when getting paid for 'tops', NEVER TH and sit on station well after port.

Plank them and take our game back. part of the problem is there's an increasingly bad trend of some bnavver's willingly turning a blind eye to those who are obvious botters cuz it's 'dependable help'.

Step it up OOO. You've done it before. Get serious about detection and perma-banning and us long time players will stop leaving in disgust.
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Piecesoeight on Meridian

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Or time will waste you

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[Mar 19, 2012 1:53:29 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
ikketje

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Ya know, the one's who never volunteer to defend, don't thank anyone when getting paid for 'tops', NEVER TH and sit on station well after port.

I hope you mean all those things at once, because 3 of those 4 statements apply to me and I don't need a bot to get consistent incredibles.

1) I never ever volunteer when on station, because a) I find SF very boring, b) MMA's don't care if the fight goes on during break or not, and if it does, it screws up the sparkles (yes, I'm like that) and c) I don't like my station stolen.
2) I usually don't pay attention to chat, especially on big ships, and I often use the 1-min break to grab some coffee/food or read a news-article or something, hence I'm often unaware of being paid a bonus...
3) I rarely leave my station to TH for similar reasons as described in 1)

Sitting on station after port, that's the only thing I don't do and in my opinion it's the best indication one can get for spotting a botter. Not always, some people just go afk right that moment. I probably have done so a few times over the 7y I've been playing.

Just wanted to say: don't shout "BOT" too quickly, seriously. Although it's obviously a problem, there's many more people who don't do it and are still better than the bots. I've never been called a botter, yet. But maybe that's because I fail to read all the chat...

I kinda miss the old days, when we called our friends botters just because they topped us on a DR, just for giggles and long time before the true puzzle-bots existed. Back then it was a compliment; it meant you were so awesome at a puzzle it was almost not human ^_^

To the botter who comes to brag here; I find you despicable and hope you'll get caught sooner rather than later (and banned from forums too, plz).
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[Mar 19, 2012 3:48:11 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Chiptharip

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Sver wrote: 
Setsusa wrote: 
It pays to realize that on xxx, which he referenced, PoE sells for around $50 per mill.

Still not condoning it, but really Sver, don't be stupid, obviously a third party service is going to have a lower value.


1. Are the people who buy poe for $$$ this way not the true offenders, the big-time drug dealers? Put another way, is not the poor, dumb kid botting at the very bottom of this pyramid scheme of cheaters akin to the street-level peddler?

2. Does this not imply that OOO/Sega has a real economic incentive to shut down this black economy of cheaters (botters at the bottom, poe-buyers at the top) in order to stay viable?


1) I imagine there are a variety of actors, much like any black market. I'd imagine the vast majority of botters are botting enough that it is undetected, but allows them to cover their badges/subscription, etc. These people probably aren't selling for profit. Then, I'd bet there are people like the aforementioned, who are willing to go through the ban/reban process to sell a million PoE here and there. Then, this is all apparent if you look at any of the PoE websites (there are multiple, they even pay to be on top Google results), groups that operate like cartels. They buy/sell in bulk. Some of these sellers have sold over 1 BILLION PoE, by their own calculations.

The first group is probably irrelevant in the grand scheme of things - someone who is risking ban to play the game probably doesn't care enough to invest RL money otherwise. OOO really needs to go over the few cartels, both the mass seller and mass purchaser. The issue is, the people that are buying and selling $10,000 worth of PoE per year probably buy a crapton of Doubloons legitly, so OOO is reluctant to ban them.

If we look at the RL drug issue, the issue has to be attacked on the 'demand' side. If a few flag monarchs start getting banned and losing their islands, I think large scale PoE operations would dry up.

Of course, this is a video game where the supply issue can easily be countered without paramilitaries, invasions, etc etc. Get rid of 200k Poker and implement limits for the amount of accounts an IP/MAC/router can have logged on at once. Bam, PoE concentration method is gone and large scale bot operations aren't possible.
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[Edit 3 times, last edit by Chiptharip at Mar 19, 2012 4:29:06 PM]
[Mar 19, 2012 4:15:13 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Roleni

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I continue to be skeptical of the actual skill level of bots and their prevalence as I've played more regularly recently. Perhaps that's because I'm on Cerulean, and it's less prevalent, and perhaps it's because I primarily play carpentry, and could make up 75% of the ultimate list with my alts, but I still think the number of variables are too high for a computer's brute force approach to outdo proper pattern recognition. There are literally hundreds of possible moves on a fresh carpentry board, and I can narrow it down to a dozen (or fewer) good moves, and pick one, in less than a second. I don't need to calculate probabilities for pieces or two-piece holes because I've already done that and have it memorized. Other people have the same kind of pattern recognition and memorization on other puzzles. I don't think a bot can get anywhere near close to that; the puzzles are actually sufficiently complex. (Also, if the bot makers are focusing on making the bot instead of learning the puzzle, their bots aren't going to be that good. :P)

What I do find frustrating, though, is that more isn't done about what botting/cheating does exist, regardless of how well it performs. Why aren't some of the limitations/tracking mechanisms put in place that could be? Why haven't Sega or OOO gone after poe sellers?

 
Seriously though, haven't you noticed a dropoff in the general public's interest in high-level chess ever since computers established their dominance in the game?

I think that the level of interest would vary strongly with the location and demographic. From what I can tell, chess tournament participation numbers in my area have been fairly steady over the last ten years.

Me, I lost interest in chess when I got a girlfriend. :P
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[Mar 20, 2012 8:54:18 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
tanonev

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I still think the number of variables are too high for a computer's brute force approach to outdo proper pattern recognition


What exactly makes you think computers are incapable of performing pattern recognition, especially in a discrete game?

 
There are literally hundreds of possible moves on a fresh carpentry board, and I can narrow it down to a dozen (or fewer) good moves, and pick one, in less than a second.


A computer can easily consider a million different moves per second.

 
I don't need to calculate probabilities for pieces or two-piece holes because I've already done that and have it memorized.


A computer can precompute ("memorize") solutions for up to 4-piece holes and generate very good approximations for 5 and 6-piece holes.

Just so you know, people don't run bots off of programmable calculators from the 80s. That piece of metal sitting in front of you is capable of doing quite a bit.

 
(Also, if the bot makers are focusing on making the bot instead of learning the puzzle, their bots aren't going to be that good. :P)


Because the programmers of Deep Blue/etc. were all grandmasters, right?

Seriously though, such a time-honored game as chess has been shown to be playable at the highest levels by computers, and you want to claim that of all things, carpentry can't be? You mean to claim that a computer can beat the likes of Kasparov after he's devoted his life to a thousand-year-old study, but not you after a few years of playing a <10-year-old game?
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wokbok117



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In addition to what's been mentioned at roleni, the carpentry puzzle sends the next 18 pieces to the client in advance, giving a very well coded bot access to information that we cannot obtain and plan moves accordingly rather than by making moves based on piece probability/counting. As evidenced by the massive bilge bot bannings, the bilge bot was able to puzzle at ultimate. Gun bots have the ability to place arrows instantly making it basically an infinite number of arrows. They can and I know someone that has gunned at perfect speed impossible for a human. That being said I've puzzled and naved on dub oceans in blockades and had no rigging bots despite those supposedly being the most prevalent.

-Wok

Edit: changed sub to dub.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by wokbok117 at Mar 21, 2012 1:14:11 PM]
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Abandonment

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In addition to what's been mentioned at roleni, the carpentry puzzle sends the next 18 pieces to the client in advance, giving a very well coded bot access to information that we cannot obtain and plan moves accordingly rather than by making moves based on piece probability/counting. As evidenced by the massive bilge bot bannings, the bilge bot was able to puzzle at ultimate. Gun bots have the ability to place arrows instantly making it basically an infinite number of arrows. They can and I know someone that has gunned at perfect speed impossible for a human. That being said I've puzzled and naved on dub oceans in blockades and had no rigging bots despite those supposedly being the most prevalent.

-Wok

Edit: changed sub to dub.


Belgian Canadian gun gloves? :P
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[Mar 21, 2012 1:55:44 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Roleni

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OK, the 18-piece thing is problematic. How is this known? If it was possible to access the upcoming pieces even without a bot it would be a huge advantage.

And yes, I'm well aware that bilge (and other) bots *can* reach ultimate. That's very different, though, from actually being able to do better than humans. As evidenced by the bilge bot bannings, there were still plenty of people capable of puzzling significantly better than the bilge bots. ;)

Also, honestly, I'm more concerned about loopholes and ways of cheating that aren't closed off, rather than the quality of bots. I'm just highly skeptical of their actual quality.

 
 
I still think the number of variables are too high for a computer's brute force approach to outdo proper pattern recognition

What exactly makes you think computers are incapable of performing pattern recognition, especially in a discrete game?

Computers don't work the same way brains do. They can be taught to recognize each and every pattern, and even analogize, but I sincerely doubt that gaming bots have learning AI programmed into them. This means that bots are only as good at pattern recognition as their programmer(s).

 
 
There are literally hundreds of possible moves on a fresh carpentry board, and I can narrow it down to a dozen (or fewer) good moves, and pick one, in less than a second.

A computer can easily consider a million different moves per second.

But that's just thinking about the current move; thinking ahead is going to involve more number crunching. All of the games have huge numbers of variables, and brute forcing a hundred possibilities to three moves is already hitting a million.

 
 
I don't need to calculate probabilities for pieces or two-piece holes because I've already done that and have it memorized.

A computer can precompute ("memorize") solutions for up to 4-piece holes and generate very good approximations for 5 and 6-piece holes.

Sure they can. So can I. :P But I don't have to run through a programmed list to match up what I've memorized to what is present; I simply know whether something is there or not. There are an enormous number of possibilities just for 3-piece holes, and their associated probabilities. If someone truly took the time to make sure a computer "memorized" up to 4, 5 and 6 piece holes, they might as well just learn to carpent well; we're getting into at least tens of thousands of possibilities at 5 piece holes, and probably millions at 6 pieces.

 
Just so you know, people don't run bots off of programmable calculators from the 80s. That piece of metal sitting in front of you is capable of doing quite a bit.

Hey, programmable calculators were capable of doing some pretty impressive stuff, even in the 80s! ;) My grandfather worked for IBM, so I have a pretty good idea of just how impressive older computers were. The thing is, again, computers still don't work like brains do, and any programs that are programmed to run like brains are still just using brute force to do so. Any flaws in the program will be flaws until reprogrammed, too, while brains can adjust immediately.

 
 
(Also, if the bot makers are focusing on making the bot instead of learning the puzzle, their bots aren't going to be that good. :P)

Because the programmers of Deep Blue/etc. were all grandmasters, right?

I don't seem to be able to find anything on the actual chess abilities of the programmers, but I'm certain that on the Puzzle Pirates scale, they would rank as "ultimate". In the matches against Kasparov the programmers modified Deep Blue between games, and this was crucial to the result in 1997.

 
Seriously though, such a time-honored game as chess has been shown to be playable at the highest levels by computers, and you want to claim that of all things, carpentry can't be? You mean to claim that a computer can beat the likes of Kasparov after he's devoted his life to a thousand-year-old study, but not you after a few years of playing a <10-year-old game?

Deep Blue was started in 1985, weighed 1.4 tons, was capable of computing 200,000,000 positions per second...and still only beat Kasparov by a point in its rematch in 1997. Kramnik lost to another computer in 2006 by the score of 2-4, but arguably gave up a point due to his own mistakes. Given that humans can only analyze a few positions a second, there's something pretty impressive going on in our brains if we can go toe to toe a computer that is going 100 million times faster.


So, yes, I'll quite confidently claim that a computer can't beat me - nor plenty of other people - at carpentry, or the other puzzles in this game. Humans can make plenty of mistakes, and can only calculate a fraction of what computers can, but brains are still incredibly powerful. In fact, the chess evidence suggests that brains are tens of millions of times better at calculating than computers; that's why the computers have to run so fast to even compete. Since the bots aren't being run by supercomputers, and they're not being programmed by IBM employees over the course of a decade, I really don't see them having much of a chance.


(Also, the numbers are bigger than you think for our puzzles. If we only assume basic 4x5 holes and no putty buckets for an entire star set that results in a perfect MP^17, we still get 12^68 = 2.423 x 10^73 possible sequences of pieces. That's ignoring the added complexity of the probabilities of the pieces, and at 200 million calculations per second, that's still more years than the number of possible bridge deals SQUARED.)
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Roleni at Mar 21, 2012 7:42:03 PM]
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wokbok117



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Same person with the gunning bot showed me the carpentry.

-Wok
[Mar 21, 2012 11:35:10 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Roleni

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And? (Have you reported said person? Does it do grain bonus? :P)


I did some more math regarding the carpentry; if we figure a really good bot could even manage something like 100,000,000 positions a second, that's still only enough to consider 100 possibilities per move and look four moves ahead. (Meanwhile bilging has 60 possible moves at any given time, and a good many of those can be immediately discarded without having to look deeper; it's computationally simpler and not at all surprising that bilge bots came first.)

And if it can take advantage of knowing the next 18 pieces...well...I don't know how much that would actually help a bot after a certain number of moves, ironically, given the exponential nature of making computations. However, I'd expect over half the ult list to get near-constant MP16/17s if they could see the next 18 pieces.


So I'm still skeptical.
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Thalatta & others

Hera tells ye, "You got me so flustered by the spanking, I booched my chat response!"
Hera tells ye, "Purple is the most awesome colour ever!"
[Mar 22, 2012 6:12:46 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wokbok117



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Said person is banned. Though, its unrelated.

-Wok
[Mar 22, 2012 6:16:39 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Roleni

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Haha. That's ironic.
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Chiptharip

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You were also skeptical that people move spy in blockades. Needless to say, you shouldn't be so naive. Sorry for attacking the poster, not the post, but short of sending you a copy of a bot, you're going to have to take people's word for it.
[Mar 23, 2012 5:30:00 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
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Pretty sure they scan the IP address or something like that to attempt to detect the use of bots.


You clearly haven't got a clue what you're talking about.
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