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TheSpyer

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Poker Rage Post #382

If you play poker just for thrills rather than to gain POE, this post does not apply to you at all. Save a few minutes, go drink a milkshake and enjoy yourself.

So after a particularly bad afternoon on the poker table, I figured I'd quit and explain how people can be less of moronic on and off the table. If you can't be bothered to read the explanation, there is a summary of key points at the end. If you don't understand them, you probably need to start again at the top.

After a smh and a couple of hours on the poker table yesterday, I'd turned 0 POE into about 70k. This afternoon I figured I'd play some 20-200k tables with my amassed riches. After about 4 hours, I ended up broke, having yo-yo'd between around 50 to 300k.

Here are a few example hands from the last hour of the session:

Hand 1:
Hero: K K ------------------- Villain all-in preflop.
Villian: A K ------------------ Chance of winning: 70%.

Hand 2:
Hero: A A ------------------ Preflop raised pot, flop 6 4 3, villain all-in after the flop.
Villian: 4 4 ----------------- Chance of winning (preflop): 80%.

Hand 3:
Hero: T T ------------------ Preflop raised pot puts V1 all-in (~50k). Flop T 9 8, I put V2 all in for his last 40k.
Villian 1: J 6
Villain 2: J Q -------------- Chance of winning (preflop): 49%.

Hand 4:
Hero: 6 6 ----------------- Preflop raise by Hero, Villain calls. Flop Q 4 2. Villain goes all-in after flop.
Villian: A 7 --------------- Chance of winning (flop): 76%.

Hand 5:
Hero: Q T ----------------- Preflop raise by Hero, Villain calls. Flop Q T 4. Hero goes all-in after flop.
Villian: A A --------------- Chance of winning (flop): 73%.

These 5 hands show how I was running this afternoon. Chance of losing all of them could be calculated 0.2% or 1/500. Pretty unlucky. However, this above analysis is POINTLESS. If you bothered reading through the hand history, that was a wasted minute, but the rest of the thread is aimed at you because you will learn something! So why is it pointless to analyse a session like that?

Firstly, because I've taken the percentages from when I was most ahead. This isn't good analysis because of things like implied odds etc. You can read about this here (serious morons only).

Secondly, it is pointless to analyse hands like this (and rage) because as you can see, the odds of losing them were just 1/500. This is about the same as the odds of losing a coin toss 9 times in a row. Unlucky, but by no means impossible. Just because it happened to you doesn't mean OOO is rigging poker. If they really hated you, they would steal your bank details from all those dubs you've bought and get drunk on expensive champagne.

Thirdly, it is pointless to analyse a session like that because I've ignored (and likely forgotten) the hands in which luck was on my side. Forgetting good luck in poker is actually a psycological phenomenom which the vast majority of us will have and makes us think that we are just unlucky to lose long-term. It often keeps losing players thinking they are good players and playing more in spite of their losses.

Finally and most importantly, it is pointless because it misleads you on how I played badly. I didn't go broke because I got outplayed. I didn't even go broke because I got unlucky. I went broke because I played a table that was too large for my bank balence.


I'm the first to admit it is difficult on PP to play at the right table. This is because 90% of the players are morons. When 90% of players are playing negative equity poker, it is tempting to play the biggest table you can afford and try and win serious POE quickly. The fact that 20k can also be re-obtained from nothing in a couple of hours of smh or blockade also makes the playing biggest table seem the best strategy.

However, it is stupid to play the largest table without sufficient POE unless you are after anything but a quick thrill. A full explanation of bankroll management, including recommendations of the size of buy-ins you should be playing, can be found here. In summary, if you change what size buy-in you play depending on how much POE you have available, you will never go broke on poker. This would save a lot of people on 200k tables with all of their 30,452 POE whinging about how they always lose.

Although the link above recommends 20 full buy-ins, I think you can definetly get away with 4-6 full buy-ins*. This is firstly because 90% of people are morons and secondly because the gap between buy-ins is a stupidely-large factor of 10... (Waiting until you'd made 4 mill on a 20k table would be a little depressing).

*I say full buy-ins because if you are playing with anything else you are likely either a moron or not be playing poker to gain POE and should probably not have bothered reading this post. This is because the larger your stack, the more you win when you win and the more you lose when you lose. If you are a positive equity player i.e. a long-term winner you will win more than you lose and therefore benefit with a big stack. Only play for less than a full buy-in if you lose long-term and want to lose it more slowly. Why do you think "bankers" do it? If you are mega-rich and a winning player all-in/fold's have even more winners winning and losers losing than normal, full buy-in 200k tables. If you have the bankroll (>5 mill) take advantage and make POE even quicker.

If I had been playing the 20k table (and still been as unlucky), I would have lost at most 1/10th as much (around 30k) in the last hour of my session. This would have left me with 2 full buy-ins to get lucky with and likely make 60k or so. Because that is how luck swings. Even more sensible would have been making POE safely on an smh or playing the 2k buy-in tables and losing at most 3k...

So to summarise:

1.
People get unlucky. OOO does not rig poker so you lose or get unlucky.

2. Play the right sized table and you won't go broke. I recommend earning 80-120K before playing 20k buy-in tables and 800-1200K before playing 200k buy-in tables. If you are playing a 200k table and lose to under 800k, move down to the 20k table.

3. Believe you are a winner and play the full buy-in. Even if you aren't.

4. If you are playing poker for fun (you're mad?) rather than to gain POE, none of the above applies. Play how you want and have fun! Live fast, love hard, win big, go broke, die young in a blaze of glory.


If this stops just one moron whinging about always going broke as they throw their last few poes on the 200k table it'll be worth it. See you on the 20k table when I hit 100k and the 200k table in a couple of days when I hit 1 mill again.

Unrelated, I'm accepting POE for poker tutoring at 50k/hour. Stop being a moron and wasting that 50k you lucked off me by calling an all in with 4 7 off. Start winning.

Peace out.
----------------------------------------
Puppet

SO of the crew Tranquility
Prince of the flag The Blood Line

[Anonymous] tells ye, "go ahead and run"
Could not tell [Anonymous]: That user is not online.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by TheSpyer at Aug 10, 2011 2:03:14 PM]
[Aug 10, 2011 2:02:39 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
MimiLinda

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

tltr :(.
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Roseh

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[Aug 10, 2011 2:16:16 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Setsusa

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

50k/hr for a service that can be done from google, and experience? Another problem is you are going to teach them real poker, not YPP poker.
----------------------------------------
Cremate on Emerald.
Motou on Meridian.
Avatar by Elfeesh.
[Aug 10, 2011 2:34:57 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
joshuawhelan

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

You went from telling people how you went broke in poker to wanting people to pay you 50k/hour for poker tutorials?
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Avatar by Velternal
[Aug 10, 2011 3:13:33 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
TheSpyer

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

 
You went from telling people how you went broke in poker to wanting people to pay you 50k/hour for poker tutorials?


You get the lolz =)
----------------------------------------
Puppet

SO of the crew Tranquility
Prince of the flag The Blood Line

[Anonymous] tells ye, "go ahead and run"
Could not tell [Anonymous]: That user is not online.
[Aug 10, 2011 3:38:28 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
DementedDuck

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

Lulz at people taking the poker tutoring seriously.
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Evilduck/Superduck.
Emerald, Cerulean, and that other one.
Now in Obsidian flavour.

I record puzzles.
[Aug 11, 2011 8:31:05 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Dylan

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

 
Lulz at people taking the poker tutoring seriously.


Heh, quite a good post though (I actually scanned to see replies before I saw the way it was written at the end)
[Aug 11, 2011 8:46:21 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Hurtboss4

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

8 minutes of my life back. Now.
----------------------------------------
And, scene.
*lights out*
[Aug 11, 2011 9:13:16 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Dylan

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

 
8 minutes of my life back. Now.


Took me 45 secs to read the first half.
[Aug 11, 2011 1:49:17 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
joojooflop

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

If you don't want to risk your money don't play poker.
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Strangepork - Viridian
[Aug 11, 2011 2:02:54 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Hurtboss4

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

 
 
8 minutes of my life back. Now.


Took me 45 secs to read the first half.

You're epic.
----------------------------------------
And, scene.
*lights out*
[Aug 11, 2011 3:21:45 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Benarv

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

 

After a smh and a couple of hours on the poker table yesterday, I'd turned 0 POE into about 70k.


I stopped reading...
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Pgoog says, "Hitch is the kind of guy who's nice to you...and you can't quite work out why"
[Aug 11, 2011 3:39:54 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Chillii

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

I don't even have to read this thread to know that it is stupid.
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Chillii.
[Aug 11, 2011 7:44:12 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Empatheticly

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

 
the odds of losing them were just 1/500


If it makes you feel better, your luck is 1/500.
----------------------------------------
I do what I can, when I can.

- Empathetic,
Still playing, here and there.
[Aug 11, 2011 8:05:37 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
ade446

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

 
I don't even have to read this thread to know that it is stupid.

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Sincerely
[Aug 11, 2011 11:20:55 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Inframan8

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

 
After about 4 hours, I ended up broke

 
I'm accepting POE for poker tutoring at 50k/hour.

huhwhat?
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Inframan
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[Aug 11, 2011 11:45:38 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
GreenieFTB



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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

I don't really understand why I still have the urge to point and laugh at his stupidity, even though nothing he has said was wrong.
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Vertftb on VirMeridian
Something in some crew
And some flag
[Aug 12, 2011 9:19:00 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
LunEnvoy

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Re: Poker Rage Post #382

 
 

After a smh and a couple of hours on the poker table yesterday, I'd turned 0 POE into about 70k.


I stopped reading...


1+0=10 :D
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LoLune

I'm still just the guard dog. I bite. They shoot.
[Aug 12, 2011 11:20:19 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
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