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pomfret

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Tzz wrote: 
I meant SF, rumble, drinking, TD, card games don't count :P

But beyond a certain level, drinking becomes mostly luck.

/me throws a stinker and takes cover.
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Pomfret of Midnight Cerulean and Most Oceans
Except when I am Scroogie or somebody else

Stupid merger made me change my signature...
[Feb 24, 2011 8:45:10 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
whatthejish

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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My two cents,

Bake-offs > Competitions

I much more prize the pirate who can keep it super sparkly for 30+ min than one who can pop a snazzy DR.

Then again, I learned to puzzle pre-competitions, when the game focused more on ship based endeavors than personal achievement.
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Dionysos, Cobalt and Obsidian
[Feb 24, 2011 10:49:23 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
superstarsam

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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My two cents,

I much more prize the pirate who can keep it super sparkly for 30+ min than one who can pop a snazzy DR.


That sentiment sounds good but just isn't correct. EVERYTHING about a bake-off depends on your start, aka how fast you can get rid of the 0 scores dragging down your eventual DR. If you get a shiny before everybody else and maintain it to an average level, you WILL win a bake-off over someone who takes a while to get super sparkles.
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Geologist - now exclusively Obsidian Emerald flavoured
[Feb 24, 2011 11:34:19 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
tanonev

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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My two cents,

I much more prize the pirate who can keep it super sparkly for 30+ min than one who can pop a snazzy DR.


That sentiment sounds good but just isn't correct. EVERYTHING about a bake-off depends on your start, aka how fast you can get rid of the 0 scores dragging down your eventual DR. If you get a shiny before everybody else and maintain it to an average level, you WILL win a bake-off over someone who takes a while to get super sparkles.


If bake-offs are as dependent on a fast start as everyone (?) claims, why has no one suggested a bake-off format with an unscored warmup league (wait until just after the first LP to engage the helper ship, and afterwards turn about back to the first LP and use that as the official DR)?
----------------------------------------
Tanonev on all oceans; currently exploring Meridian.
Puppetar by Tilinka
[Feb 24, 2011 12:28:32 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.alpha-slash.com [Link]  Go to top 
whatthejish

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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That sentiment sounds good but just isn't correct. EVERYTHING about a bake-off depends on your start, aka how fast you can get rid of the 0 scores dragging down your eventual DR. If you get a shiny before everybody else and maintain it to an average level, you WILL win a bake-off over someone who takes a while to get super sparkles.


My sentiment is completely correct, as it's MY sentiment and not yours to validate. I was merely offering an opinion, but just for your nit-pickiness:
 
My two cents,

I much more prize the pirate who can quickly get to, and keep it super sparkly for 30+ min than one who can pop a snazzy DR.

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Dionysos, Cobalt and Obsidian
[Feb 24, 2011 12:36:21 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
superstarsam

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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My two cents,

I much more prize the pirate who can keep it super sparkly for 30+ min than one who can pop a snazzy DR.


That sentiment sounds good but just isn't correct. EVERYTHING about a bake-off depends on your start, aka how fast you can get rid of the 0 scores dragging down your eventual DR. If you get a shiny before everybody else and maintain it to an average level, you WILL win a bake-off over someone who takes a while to get super sparkles.


If bake-offs are as dependent on a fast start as everyone (?) claims, why has no one suggested a bake-off format with an unscored warmup league (wait until just after the first LP to engage the helper ship, and afterwards turn about back to the first LP and use that as the official DR)?


It was suggested to Apollo ingame and in the official thread last time there was a bake-off series, but declined with the reasoning "And what if we get engaged along the way?" which seems rather flimsy given that (I think?) OMs can avoid such engagements, and the resulting FAIR comparison would make bake-offs worthy of awarding a coloured familiar.

Edit, @ Dionysos:

Honestly, I have better things to do than nit-picking your wording. Your post read that you genuinely didn't realise that getting a score quickly mattered more than getting a BIG score slowly. Given the discussion at hand, my clarifying that is pretty important.
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Geologist - now exclusively Obsidian Emerald flavoured
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by superstarsam at Feb 24, 2011 12:41:26 PM]
[Feb 24, 2011 12:38:47 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
tanonev

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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It was suggested to Apollo ingame and in the official thread last time there was a bake-off series, but declined with the reasoning "And what if we get engaged along the way?" which seems rather flimsy given that (I think?) OMs can avoid such engagements, and the resulting FAIR comparison would make bake-offs worthy of awarding a coloured familiar.


I'm not sure OMs can avoid getting hit by spawns. Ceph at least has a "Win!" button that may or may not make brigand fights trivial, but I don't think the OMs have access to it.[/wild speculation]

Would a reasonable alternative be a 12-league swabbied course, using your average rank on the DR (throwing out the first league as a warmup and the last league because swabbied ships eat the last DR) to determine your score? Here we have tiebreaking problems, though. I suppose another alternative would be to have an event blockade, enter the event 2 minutes before the first break, and use the second segment DR as the official DR (and OM-smite anyone who thinks it would be funny to interfere with the ship on the event blockade board).
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Tanonev on all oceans; currently exploring Meridian.
Puppetar by Tilinka
[Feb 24, 2011 2:36:25 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.alpha-slash.com [Link]  Go to top 
whatthejish

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Edit, @ Dionysos:

Honestly, I have better things to do than nit-picking your wording. Your post read that you genuinely didn't realise that getting a score quickly mattered more than getting a BIG score slowly. Given the discussion at hand, my clarifying that is pretty important.


Wow, and this read as, "Not only am I condescending, but I've earned my position to disrespect you."

Yes, I get it, you are very good at puzzle pirates. But seriously, dude, get off your high horse. There's no reason to be an ass about it.
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Dionysos, Cobalt and Obsidian
[Feb 24, 2011 4:02:39 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
MtEverest

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Edit, @ Dionysos:

Honestly, I have better things to do than nit-picking your wording. Your post read that you genuinely didn't realise that getting a score quickly mattered more than getting a BIG score slowly. Given the discussion at hand, my clarifying that is pretty important.


Wow, and this read as, "Not only am I condescending, but I've earned my position to disrespect you."

Yes, I get it, you are very good at puzzle pirates. But seriously, dude, get off your high horse. There's no reason to be an ass about it.


NANANANANANANANANANANA
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Epo

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[Feb 24, 2011 4:15:40 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
superstarsam

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Edit, @ Dionysos:

Honestly, I have better things to do than nit-picking your wording. Your post read that you genuinely didn't realise that getting a score quickly mattered more than getting a BIG score slowly. Given the discussion at hand, my clarifying that is pretty important.


Wow, and this read as, "Not only am I condescending, but I've earned my position to disrespect you."

Yes, I get it, you are very good at puzzle pirates. But seriously, dude, get off your high horse. There's no reason to be an ass about it.


My high horse aside, you really seem to be misinterpreting my posts.
I don't disrespect you, I consider you a good puzzler, and in the few times we talked ingame, a nice guy. I've tried twice to correct you, neither time with offense in mind, and had my head bitten off for expressing my opinion (which, ego aside, I know from experience to be correct).

I don't care about being right. I care about this discussion being based on accurate points.

@Tanonev,

I very much like your event blockade idea. Swabbying could throw up a few problems but that too would be better than the system in place now.
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Geologist - now exclusively Obsidian Emerald flavoured
[Feb 24, 2011 11:38:06 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Nooblar

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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It was suggested to Apollo ingame and in the official thread last time there was a bake-off series, but declined with the reasoning "And what if we get engaged along the way?" which seems rather flimsy given that (I think?) OMs can avoid such engagements, and the resulting FAIR comparison would make bake-offs worthy of awarding a coloured familiar.


I'm not sure OMs can avoid getting hit by spawns. Ceph at least has a "Win!" button that may or may not make brigand fights trivial, but I don't think the OMs have access to it.[/wild speculation]

Would a reasonable alternative be a 12-league swabbied course, using your average rank on the DR (throwing out the first league as a warmup and the last league because swabbied ships eat the last DR) to determine your score? Here we have tiebreaking problems, though. I suppose another alternative would be to have an event blockade, enter the event 2 minutes before the first break, and use the second segment DR as the official DR (and OM-smite anyone who thinks it would be funny to interfere with the ship on the event blockade board).

A properly timed round 3/4 break would allow a longer bake off.
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Nooblar and/or Nerdbeard on Sage/Emerald
Cartrunner wrote: 

<3
Dear forum alt: since you inquired, no, I do not endorse ban evasion.

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[Feb 25, 2011 1:38:31 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
sweetnessc

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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We were thinking of including the single player carousing puzzles in the decathlon too, but would the lack of a subscription be a barrier for anyone who wants to compete?
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My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. ~ Jack Layton

Sublime is shame.
[Feb 25, 2011 12:24:05 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Stephensam

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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This conversation is making me want an old-school distilling bake-off.
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Stevensam -Cobalt Native, founder and host of The PoE is Right. Creator of Lime Day.
[Feb 25, 2011 11:22:06 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://yppedia.puzzlepirates.com/Stevensam [Link]  Go to top 
Roleni

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Dahlgren:
 
See I could accept that statement if you in return gave me a pirate that consistantly win competitions yet can't score impressive DR's.

I don't need to. It's mathematical fact that competition results are not an accurate indicator of puzzling skill.

Here's how:
Let P equal a pirate's performance over the course of a competition. While P will be adjusted for factors such as puzzling conditions, playstyle, time, influence by the random number generator, how well/sober/awake a pirate is, etc., the higher a pirate's puzzling skill, the higher we can expect P to be.
However, the impact of P on the results of a competition is limited. If a pirate puzzles normally, his or her competition score will be P + N*X, where X is the standard deviation of P (loosely, the variability of the performance) and N is determined by the type of puzzle and length of competition.
If a pirate does not puzzle normally, the value of P is impossible to determine without comparison to the pirate puzzling normally.

In short, it is impossible to tell if a pirate that won a competition did so because 1) s/he did significantly better than everyone else and so produced the top score as a matter of course, 2) s/he produced an anomalous score that was better than everyone else's best score, or 3) s/he best managed to "pop a snazzy DR".


An example:
Say there is a duty puzzle competition that scores approximately 40 duty reports. The top 2.5% of a bell curve is two standard deviations away from the mean, so for this example we will estimate that, for P + N*X, N equals 2.
Pirate A is a consistent ultimate who performs at an average score (P) of 100, with standard deviation (X) of 5.
Pirate B is a less consistent legendary who performs at an average score of 90, with standard deviation of 10.
Pirate C is another ultimate who performs at an average score of 100, but also with standard deviation of 10.
Pirate D is an inconsistent grand-master who performs at an average score of 80, but with standard deviation of 20.
Both pirates A and B have an equal chance of beating each other.
Pirate C should beat both pirates A and B more often than not, but so should pirate D - both pirates C and D have an equal chance of beating each other.
Pirate E is a legendary that manages to pop a snazzy DR so wins the competition, making P + N*X irrelevant.

 
See this is almost like another discussion that was held for quite a while ago. You can be a good puzzler without being good at competitions. However, you can't be good at competitions without being a good puzzler.

Except your definition of "good puzzler" is flawed because it is based, in part, on your high opinion of competition results, which are statistically inaccurate.

 
...if someone consistantly places high in competitions, it can't be luck.

That is correct. It can be expected statistical variation or the ability to pop a snazzy DR. Both are affected by underlying puzzling skill, but not predictable without knowing other variables.

 
My fundamental logic would be that if you can score high for 2-3 minutes, nothing should be keeping you from scoring high for 20-30 minutes.

Your fundamental logic is entirely contradictory to the fields of statistics and probability. :P

Geologist:

 
If a player can master the intricacies of competition scoring and form strategies accordingly, I'm sure s/he can work out that all you need in a bake-off is an ultra-fast (or even 'lucky' start - tripling a platform in 10 seconds, 1-looping on the 3rd rig, 3-click bingo or 4-piece opening MP) and then some abc consistency.

Against top notch competition, much more than just "abc consistency" is needed. In the February 2010 bakeoff on Malachite I got MP16, MP17, MP15, MP10 - that's not losing to anyone that got a four piece MP first or even a MP16 faster. That early score boost is key, but fragile. In fact, if you take a risk to get it and then the risk doesn't pay off, you're pretty much toast.

Also, evidence from your own puzzling indicates that you do far more than simple consistency. If multiple players perform at a high level, whoever gets there first will win in a bake-off, but it doesn't matter how high up an incredible was early on if it's lost later on, even if it's due to a run of bad luck rather than inconsistency.

/nitpick - I'd argue that bake-offs are more about *not* getting a slow start than getting a fast start.

 
...I think most of the top competition puzzlers are also capable of doing if they have the patience to pillage for hours.

I would agree; emphasis mine. I would also say that most of the top competition puzzlers are in fact excellent puzzlers, but that's because they can do well otherwise, too, and that there are plenty of people they beat in competitions that are better overall puzzlers.

 
tldr competitions are a very effective way of measuring skill.

If by "tldr" you mean longer competitions, then no, they aren't - see the statistics stuff above: snazzy DR popping and actual skill aren't predictive of each other, and the longer a competition, the greater N in P + N*X becomes.

If you mean multiple puzzle competitions, then I agree wholeheartedly (aside, of course, from the duty navigation effect) - more puzzles involved means more scores to average out and get rid of randomness, variation, luck, etc.

 
Swabbying could throw up a few problems but that too would be better than the system in place now.

There have been many bake-offs in the past that counted multiple duty reports, based on score and/or rank, and ties just resulted in tiebreaker leagues.

Really what would probably be best would be to swabby, score a series of duty reports (say 10, 20, 30, 40) using the capability existing in competitions, keep *all* of them (except for the first), and then average them - rather than rewarding the highest one, trying to allot points, or forgoing the multiple duty reports.

Otherwise:
 
...they consistenly win competitions, bake offs, they top DRs, and maintain #1s all at the same time.

Then as far as I'm concerned, they fulfill the criteria of maintaining equally impressive results when not in competitions.

 
This conversation is making me want an old-school distilling bake-off.

Distilling actually does a much better job of measuring skill than any duty puzzle - though perfect performance should average a CC^16, which kind of maxes out the possible top score, and leaves it up to spice and white piece luck. Crafting competitions in general result in fewer duty reports, decreasing the variability of scores.


Yeah, yeah...way tl;dr. <_<
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Thalatta & others

Hera tells ye, "You got me so flustered by the spanking, I booched my chat response!"
Hera tells ye, "Purple is the most awesome colour ever!"
[Feb 26, 2011 8:49:45 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
TheRack

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Is the best puzzler the guy who can pull the biggest vegas, or the guy who you can count on when your in a tight squeeze?
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Cephalopod, on poker, wrote: 
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: it isn't rigged.

Period. End of story.

[Feb 26, 2011 11:22:06 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
sweetnessc

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Did anything come of Tzz's challenge, or are you just waiting for the decathlon event?
----------------------------------------
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. ~ Jack Layton

Sublime is shame.
[Feb 28, 2011 3:43:15 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Roleni

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Linky to this decathlon?
----------------------------------------
Thalatta & others

Hera tells ye, "You got me so flustered by the spanking, I booched my chat response!"
Hera tells ye, "Purple is the most awesome colour ever!"
[Mar 1, 2011 3:23:56 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
tanonev

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The decathlon is a work in progress; assuming everything works out, we'll post about it sometime towards the end of this month, and it'll run close to Easter weekend.
----------------------------------------
Tanonev on all oceans; currently exploring Meridian.
Puppetar by Tilinka
[Mar 1, 2011 4:24:07 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.alpha-slash.com [Link]  Go to top 
Perenoel1

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Did anything come of Tzz's challenge, or are you just waiting for the decathlon event?


I've actually done 3 challenges already, though none for crafting, just the 5 duty puzzles and 4 carousing(or just 7 or 8 of the puzzles if we ran out of time). It was really fun for the most part, and I'd definitely be up for more if anyone else is interested, or finishing the ones i started with more puzzles.


Duty puzzles were 1st to 10 or 15 leagues, and carousing were anywhere from best of 1 to best of 7, depending on time and boredom.

PM or post if you want to play more :)
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Tzz Made of Fail on Midnight
Tzz's Ultimate puzzle Guide
[Mar 3, 2011 9:22:05 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
warp11

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Since Tzz haven't posted the results yet...

Tzz
Bilging
Drinking
Sailing
Treasuredrop

Dahlgren
Carpentry
Swordfighting
Rumble
Gunning

Sadly, we got interrupted while attempting to rig. It may or may not have been my fault.
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Dahl "I have higher moral standards" gren
[Mar 5, 2011 11:12:52 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
superstarsam

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Already spoke to Tzz about it, but I'm very interested in a puzzle-off if we can all find time. :D
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Geologist - now exclusively Obsidian Emerald flavoured
[Mar 5, 2011 11:17:17 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Perenoel1

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Re: The best puzzling pirate? Reply to this Post
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Since Tzz haven't posted the results yet...

Tzz
Bilging
Drinking
Sailing
Treasuredrop

Dahlgren
Carpentry
Swordfighting
Rumble
Gunning

Sadly, we got interrupted while attempting to rig. It may or may not have been my fault.


ahh i was waiting till we finished rigging, but heres the rest if you want.

our 1st short puzzleoff (tzz:dahlgren)
1:0 SF
1:0 Rumble
1:0 Drinking
0:1 TD
10:1 Bilge
10:0 Carpentry
7:10 Rigging

and our longer oner

1:4 SF
2:4 Rumble
2:1 Drinking
2:1 TD
10:2 Bilge
2:10 Carpentry
10:2 Sailing
4:10 Gunning
----------------------------------------
Tzz Made of Fail on Midnight
Tzz's Ultimate puzzle Guide
[Mar 5, 2011 11:23:22 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
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