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Shorty_Jack

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Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Posts: 3557
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[Event Over] Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

This is the Lucky Number Fundraiser! Want to participate?

Find me on Cobalt starting December 18th. The event will end December 20th or until the familiar is won. I'll mostly be on Dragon's Nest (I may hop around to other islands). However, I can't just give everything away without gaining something in return. Do a /pay command and pay me 5k then guess a number between 1 - 200. I will look on my list and the prizes listed by that number is the prize you will receive!

Challenge: If you aren't the first to guess that number that means your prize is already gone and you will receive nothing. To guess again you have to do another /pay command. You only get one guess per 5k whether it's a winner or loser. No guessing again if you guess wrong. Please do not ask for hints of what numbers are taken. You can ask the people standing around, but I will not answer. I will also not say if the larger prizes have been taken already. I will ask that the players that do win larger prizes keep quiet so I do have a chance at raising more poe.

It's easy right? Pay me and guess that's all! There are quite a bit of prizes for those willing to pay the price (and the price is not negotiable even if you are a greenie). I won't limit your guesses, however, you cannot buy all 200 numbers. It kind of defeats the fun of the game. So come and find me to claim your prize(s)!

Some numbers may contain more than one prize. If you are the first to guess the number you will get all the prizes for that number.

Prizes range from everything including clothes, furniture, trinkets, swords, bludgeons, mugs, even boats!
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FAQs:

Why are you doing this? I have quite a bit of random items lying around and could really use the poe instead. The poe I receive will go towards ocean wide events on Cobalt and towards my flag. None of the poe will be for my personal use.

This sounds like a scam. If you honestly don't trust me don't do it. I've done this event in the past several times before on Midnight. If you still feel like I am scamming you out of poe, please do not play. This is for gaining funds for future ocean fun. I want this to go as pleasant as possible.

How much do you actually keep for yourself? None. As I said before it will to to ocean wide fun.

Can you list the prizes (out of order of course)? What's the fun it that? It's suppose to be a mystery! I will tell you there are no whisks, fish, sticks, bedrolls, or crates.

Do you have a war frig, cause it's not worth it unless there a war frig. That is of your opinion. If you feel this event is not worth your time to take a gamble in, then please don't participate. A war frig is well over 1k. I'm trying to do this to have fun and gain some poe with unwanted items.

Can you at least list some of the higher end items, so we might actually consider playing? That I will do, just to bait you into playing. Currently, I have Atlantean statue, two sloops, Crossed Swords furniture, Jarred Homunculus furniture, and a Male Indigo Outfit. Oh. And a tan octo familiar. The familiar is already named. You can have the name changed for 200k.

I got a different gender piece of clothing can you give me a different one? Sadly, no. You get what you win. If I traded you a different item on the list, that would be going against the rules. You can stand next to me trying to sell the item if you like.

Is everything new? Sadly, no. I wish my poe pocket was big enough that I can buy everything new. The conditions range from new to old. Not everything is old if that is your concern.

This is such a rip off! I'm not winning anything! Like I said before, if you do not trust me, DO NOT PLAY. There are strategies to winning items. Guess numbers that isn't everyone favorite lucky number, be one of the first to guess, etc. If you find me 14 hours later, of course items are going to be gone already. Like I've said over and over, if you do not trust me and think this is a rip off/scam/stupid game, do not play.

Who knows the prize list? Myself and Gothmog. I would say just myself, but it's kind of difficult to keep a list hidden from him. No one else will know the order of prizes.

What stops on person from just guessing the whole lot? Nothing. If someone wants to guess every number it's going to cost them 1 million poe.

Got More Questions? Ask away!

EDIT: The event is this weekend not in one month's time. Apparently, I lost a month of my life and believed it was January already.
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Shortyjack of the Midnight Ocean
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[Edit 2 times, last edit by Shorty_Jack at Dec 18, 2009 2:36:21 PM]
[Dec 14, 2009 3:50:21 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    silversleak [Link]  Go to top 
Harlech

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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

Is it possible for you to post:
- How much you expect you yourself to earn from the game, and how many prizes will be leftover.
- Or some expression of a pirate's chances of winning.
- Or some explanation of how you expect the game to play out.

I'd expect at least a loose mathematical basis, too. Though I suppose a historical basis would work as well.

The probabilities involved in your game are fairly complex. If you cannot demonstrate some understanding of how the game will play out, then whether or not I trust you is irrelevant. Without you intending it to be, the game could be horribly unfair. If you can demonstrate that you know the game will be reasonable, then pirates that trust you can buy in with confidence.
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SIXTH Puzzle, Win an Avatar.
[Dec 14, 2009 4:57:41 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shorty_Jack

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Joined: Dec 22, 2004
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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

Would links to the prior event being held work?


 
How much you expect you yourself to earn from the game, and how many prizes will be leftover.
None. I, personally, earn nothing from the game. Some poe will go to blockades and the remaining will go to the two events I plan to run on Cobalt early next year. As for how many prizes will be leftover, I believe when I ran with 150 prizes, I had 20 remaining. I would like for them all to be won.

I'm not a mathematical person, so I honestly can't type up some figures for you. Sorry.
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Shortyjack of the Midnight Ocean
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[Dec 14, 2009 5:12:24 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    silversleak [Link]  Go to top 
Gothmog1065

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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

 
The probabilities involved in your game are fairly complex. If you cannot demonstrate some understanding of how the game will play out, then whether or not I trust you is irrelevant. Without you intending it to be, the game could be horribly unfair. If you can demonstrate that you know the game will be reasonable, then pirates that trust you can buy in with confidence.


Let me see. The game will play out like this: People will guess numbers, and items will be given away. Some people will guess numbers already taken, and they will win nothing, and they may have to pay to guess again.

Not seeing the difficulty here?
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Nemesis wrote: 
You ruined my joke, Goth.
Arakael wrote: 
Goth is right, as usual.
Blobbles wrote: 
Goth is right. *shudders*

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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Gothmog1065 at Dec 14, 2009 5:29:08 PM]
[Dec 14, 2009 5:28:27 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Harlech

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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

Aye, I reckon links to prior events would probably do the trick.

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that you were benefiting personally. What I really wanted to know is how much poe you expect pirates will pay in total, versus the estimated total value of prizes given. That'll allow us to judge the risk to some extent.

It's an interesting idea for a game. It encourages people to jump in as early as they can, when the odds are really favorable. As the game progresses, the odds can become quite poor. So it's partly a game of chance, and partly a "guess how many prizes are left" type race. The second half is a little unpredictable, which is why I wanted some idea of how you expected it to work out.

There's a huge advantage to guessing early. So I'm assuming you assign prizes in the order you receive /payment. Can someone /pay you 50k and choose multiple numbers at once? Or is it one at a time?
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SIXTH Puzzle, Win an Avatar.
[Dec 14, 2009 5:38:57 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shorty_Jack

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Joined: Dec 22, 2004
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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?p=1617173#1617173
http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?p=614960#614960
http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?p=904243#904243
http://forums.puzzlepirates.com/community/mvnforum/viewthread?p=582276#582276

I'm hoping to get at least 800k. With a tan octo, an atlantean statue, a jarred homunculus, etc. The total of prizes are well over 800k. I don't really see the point in being asked that question. In past events if I added the prizes up, the amount raised was actually a loss, but most of the prizes are donations.

The person who pays me 5k first, will get to choose a number first. If the prize(s) is for that number I will open the trade window and trade them their prize(s). If there isn't a number I will say sorry that prize has already been won. If someone wants to pay me in a large bundle they are more than welcome too. Just don't be a player that accidentally guesses a number they already won on! (It has happened)
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Shortyjack of the Midnight Ocean
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[Dec 14, 2009 5:50:43 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    silversleak [Link]  Go to top 
Harlech

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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

 
Let me see. The game will play out like this: People will guess numbers, and items will be given away. Some people will guess numbers already taken, and they will win nothing, and they may have to pay to guess again.

Not seeing the difficulty here?


Let's say that the game continues until all prizes are gone (it won't), and that the final prize is a sloop. At the tail end of the game, it is a 1/200 chance at a 12k sloop for 5k a shot. She can expect to take on the order of 500k for that sloop. (Aye, this depends on a fair number of assumptions.) I would certainly not play such long odds, and if I expected the game to continue that long, I wouldn't play. There's a point at which pirate confidence in the value of remaining prizes dries up. If, in the past, that has happened early enough that the odds are still reasonable, I may participate. If Shortyjack expects the game to continue to the point where the odds become blatantly unreasonable, I won't.

That said, I'm under the impression that she intends to run a fair game. I just want to know that she's confident that it will be.
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SIXTH Puzzle, Win an Avatar.
[Dec 14, 2009 5:54:26 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Stephensam

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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

I don't understand why you think the game will not be fair? She is presenting you with all the knowledge you need to play or not. It's not a scam, it's not a double-cross. You know your odds going into the game.
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Stevensam -Cobalt Native, founder and host of The PoE is Right. Creator of Lime Day.
[Dec 14, 2009 6:23:39 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://yppedia.puzzlepirates.com/Stevensam [Link]  Go to top 
Gothmog1065

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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

 
That said, I'm under the impression that she intends to run a fair game. I just want to know that she's confident that it will be.
We have things that will happen that will ensure that at least, the octo will be given away.
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Nemesis wrote: 
You ruined my joke, Goth.
Arakael wrote: 
Goth is right, as usual.
Blobbles wrote: 
Goth is right. *shudders*

[Dec 14, 2009 7:13:16 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Harlech

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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

 
I don't understand why you think the game will not be fair? She is presenting you with all the knowledge you need to play or not. It's not a scam, it's not a double-cross. You know your odds going into the game.


I am certainly not suggesting it is a scam.
I haven't called Shortyjack's trustworthiness into question at all, and I do not intend to do so.

And I certainly don't know my odds going in.

This game is not a simple game of chance. It is a race. I'm completely unfamiliar with this type of game, so I'm trying to get an idea of how it'll work out. That's all.

Almost all raffles and games of chance post their odds. In this case, that isn't easy to do. For the first player, the odds will be reasonable, especially considering it's a sort of fundraiser raffle. Depending on how long the game continues, the odds could become very unreasonable. To me, regardless of how honestly they are stated, long odds without comparable return are unfair. My observations of the odds certainly aren't a criticism of Shortyjack.

I'm interested, and I'm exploring the nature of the game.

Thanks for the links, Shortyjack. They're helpful.

edit:
 
The probabilities involved in your game are fairly complex. If you cannot demonstrate some understanding of how the game will play out, then whether or not I trust you is irrelevant. Without you intending it to be, the game could be horribly unfair. If you can demonstrate that you know the game will be reasonable, then pirates that trust you can buy in with confidence.


Reading back over what I wrote, this sounds kind of high-falutin'. That wasn't intentional. I guess I just had trouble phrasing what I wanted to say. Sorry about that.
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SIXTH Puzzle, Win an Avatar.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Harlech at Dec 14, 2009 7:38:19 PM]
[Dec 14, 2009 7:16:37 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Shorty_Jack

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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

Sorry for the delay mates, had to get the prizes gathered up on my pirate! I'm on Dragon's Nest now. Come play!
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Shortyjack of the Midnight Ocean
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[Dec 18, 2009 10:01:01 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    silversleak [Link]  Go to top 
Shorty_Jack

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Re: Lucky Number [Win a Tan Octo!]

All except a few prizes have been won. The prizes left over will go up in a tournament later today! Thanks for all that played, it was great fun!

#44 - Tan Octo won by Ilya
#38 - Jarred Homunculus won by Wraithlord
#138 - Sloop Lazy Bass won by Ilya
#105 - Male Indigo Outfit won by Wraithlord
#194 - Atlantean Statue won by Ilya
#16 - Frost Sloop won by Ilya
#149 - Female CI Mask won by Ilya
#133 - Male CI Mask won by Ilya

There were plenty more good prizes given away, but these (to me) were the top of the bunch!


Special Thanks goes to the pirates that played and then gave me more prizes to give away! Some things I've never seen before!

EDIT: People have been asking 1.35 million was raised with this event.
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Shortyjack of the Midnight Ocean
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Shorty_Jack at Dec 18, 2009 2:43:07 PM]
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