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Antique

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Announcement thread?

LINK

Starts out fine -

Hypnos wrote: 
To check on the status of each ocean and its players, I would like to hold a conference of the monarchs (or appointed royal representatives) of the most famed flags on each ocean, to discuss player issues, good aspects, and which areas of the game need the most focus.


"To check on the status of each ocean" implies a focus-group type thing, no problem but the additon of "and it's players" does carry some slight implications of attendees having standing to speak for others.

A little further down page one we get:

Hypnos wrote: 
The focus of this is supposed to be what would be the best for the players that one represents, not grudges.


I believe that's pretty straightforward and speaks for itself. From that point forward, once that concept is out of the bag, it pops up again and again.
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Antique of Cerulean!
[May 7, 2009 10:01:17 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Squashbuckle

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The special access thing isn't a conspiracy theory. It's a fact.

OOO doesn't provide any phone support, yet a small group of high-end players got to have a phone conversation with an OM. No one else had the chance to talk on the phone with Hypnos or any other OM. That's special access.

Do I think OOO acted in such a way that the special access would lead to special privileges within the game? Of course not. Do other players suspect as much? Probably. Some of the monarchs even acted like it was the case. Sure, they're just trumping up what amounts to participation ina focus group, but it unnecessarily irks a lot of players and in the end the group being polled isn't even the one OOO needs to focus on.
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Polly
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[May 7, 2009 10:56:38 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
StuManchu

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The special access thing isn't a conspiracy theory. It's a fact.


This is awesome.
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[May 7, 2009 11:21:15 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
vnork



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Darksand wrote: 
Holy abuse of statistics, Batman!

Thanks for the post, that's one thing that has always bothered me. It's a bit incredible how much mindless quoting/twisting of statistics is done, without applying any common-sense filters first.

-Vnork
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[Edit 2 times, last edit by vnork at May 7, 2009 11:28:19 AM]
[May 7, 2009 11:27:07 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Somewhat of a side track, but it goes to the "elitist" aspect:

If someone like gothmog. the self-declared king of cobalt, still doesn't know that Master is well above average, that shows how right slimbutt was for using it as an example.

Repost for those who don't know: {percentages snipped}

Holy abuse of statistics, Batman!

Remember that the greenies who show up, bilge (e.g.) badly once, and then disappear are among those ables for the 10 days they're on the curve.

And those utls that puzzle once every 10 days to keep on the list also skew things the other direction, as do skilled players that use alts until their standings get "too good" (e.g., much above Able). But, I seriously doubt that any of these has a major impact. The vast majority of players, play.

 
Oh and someone who's *all* master and below? In what, all 20 puzzles? That's well, well below average.

Nice strawman. No one, not gothmog, slimbutt nor I, were talking about multiple standings, just whether "master is an average stat", and it isn't. It might be for forum posters and monarchs of large flags though.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[May 7, 2009 11:32:31 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Talisker

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in the end the group being polled isn't even the one OOO needs to focus on.


In your opinion. If OOO thought the monarchs invited were "woefully out of touch" and dockpressing greenies, I doubt they would have held it as they did. I think an occasional look at what matters to people with such a wide impact isn't a bad thing. In a very real sense, these people could ruin the game for countless others, intentionally, like RD, or unintentionally with just general malaise, like Midnight is sometimes. I think it's worth it to look at what is important to these individuals and the people they represent (Not necessarily specific people like Antique, but a monarch inarguably knows the general thrust of what her flag's goals are). There's been some comments that there's an issue with them being all "hardcore." Directly and indirectly, "hardcore" players affect hundreds, if not thousands, of other players. Somewhere someone posted about a blockade on a green ocean getting to around 600 jobbers a side. These people aren't brought into this by the greenie just learning to drive a boat, or an old guy who logs in to chat with friends. A lot of the game is driven by these people.

It's also a fallacy that "hardcore" people don't care about what happens on the other end of the game. Just skimming the notes from the ones I've attended, crappy dockpressing crews were addressed. So was pillaging, specifically raising rewards on non-elite pillages. So were mid-level goals. So were events aimed a lower statted players. Smoothing the way for greenies is good, and this happens and has happened despite the fact there's no "Greenie Conference." If they think there are problems at the "high end" of the game, and there are, then who should be talked to? At some point anyone who sticks around can get to that part of the game, and working on it helps player retention, and trickles down as other benefits.

There's no problem at all with OM access. Ideally, I'd love to see similar things take place for other groups, but in general, they aren't as easy to nail down. Who does one look to for a greenie conference? Who is a fair cross segment for a Merchant Conference? If you've got a group of people with a wide game impact, broad game experience, and easy contact with hundreds of customers, it just plain makes sense to at least ask what they think.
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Leif
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Gunnermooch wrote: 
I can't respond because I do not understand what the hell you are talking about. Sorry.

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[May 7, 2009 11:39:38 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
ssandv



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Somewhat of a side track, but it goes to the "elitist" aspect:

If someone like gothmog. the self-declared king of cobalt, still doesn't know that Master is well above average, that shows how right slimbutt was for using it as an example.

Repost for those who don't know: {percentages snipped}

Holy abuse of statistics, Batman!

Remember that the greenies who show up, bilge (e.g.) badly once, and then disappear are among those ables for the 10 days they're on the curve.

And those utls that puzzle once every 10 days to keep on the list also skew things the other direction, as do skilled players that use alts until their standings get "too good" (e.g., much above Able). But, I seriously doubt that any of these has a major impact. The vast majority of players, play.

 
Oh and someone who's *all* master and below? In what, all 20 puzzles? That's well, well below average.

Nice strawman. No one, not gothmog, slimbutt nor I, were talking about multiple standings, just whether "master is an average stat", and it isn't. It might be for forum posters and monarchs of large flags though.

I'll take that hit. Someone else conflated the "master is average" with a discussion about duty report results earlier--where, in fact, you don't get 50% fine or below that I've ever seen, even when jobbing with new or lousy puzzlers, and I still had that post in my head when I was reading the rest of the discussion. Duty reports and rankings are *related* but they work very differently, and they need to not be discussed together for this subject.

Nevertheless, I submit that the average pirate has stats above Master, and I don't think you can produce a reasonable refutation of that. The discussion implied otherwise, the way it sounded to me.

But that "the vast majority of the players play" thing? That's wrong, I'm as certain as I can possibly be, at least in the sense you seem to be using it. They play...poker, or whatever (pardon the pun) floats their particular boat, predominantly, and then muck about with the stuff that isn't their favorite on a semi-regular basis. Without ringer data there's no way to do more than speculate, but I would guess that for the duty puzzles, a good third of the rank table, mostly compressed at the bottom, are *not* regularly playing it. Probably as many as half the ables, which although it doesn't make Master across the board average, moves it down a lot. Take, for example, the pillage where a mate spends most of it on sails, which happens to be his personal favorite (because apparently he's twisted...) but after a sea battle goes sour, he gets asked to help out on carp for a league. He's on the board for another 10 days after that. Pretty easy to end up refreshing all three (well, five, really, counting rigging and guns) duty puzzles in one pillage, even if you only like one.

Back to the point, though, there remains no better way to get a reasonably sized group of people who are well-versed in a broad cross-section of the game, and can likely communicate clearly and effectively. So it was a great idea, and people who were looking for an excuse to feel alienated got one too--it's a win/win!
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Darksand (back again!)
Obsidian: Peace and Quiet-Chaos
Midnight (rarely): Forbidden Dreams-Dies Irae
Leif wrote: 
I understand you'll ignore this as it doesn't support your paranoia.

[May 7, 2009 12:45:36 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Squashbuckle

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If OOO thought the monarchs invited were "woefully out of touch" and dockpressing greenies, I doubt they would have held it as they did.


They haven't held one in about 2 years. Perhaps that indicates something about how useful the Ringers found player input from the last conference.

I'm not trying to argue that OOO shouldn't seek out player input. They should have more surveys and more links to the forums from the noticeboard, so more players start giving feedback instead of the same few dozen old salts. There are many ways to get a broad survey of player concerns (heck, they could even just compile statistics on what sort of petitions are being sent it). Another conference is not necesssary, not particularly useful, and has a vast potential to upset lots of players who feel left out. Why upset anyone when there are other options?
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[May 7, 2009 12:56:27 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Talisker

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Yeah, I just don't see any sort of case that they aren't useful.
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Leif
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Gunnermooch wrote: 
I can't respond because I do not understand what the hell you are talking about. Sorry.

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[May 7, 2009 1:08:39 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Dorien

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They aren't useful because some other people out there other than myself and Polly (We're doing fine with forums, surveys, office hours etc.) aren't able to access them. And other people out there (other than myself and Polly - we're just weighing in on what OTHER people think. Don't ever consider our posts as personal feelings or selfish in any way) might feel left out.
Won't somebody please think of the other people who we're advocating for! (Note, -not- myself and Polly. We're completely objective and are only looking out for the masses, who's feelings and thoughts we know, and cherish.)
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[May 7, 2009 2:53:11 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
slimbutt

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Nevertheless, I submit that the average pirate has stats above Master

Don't quit your day job as bank loan officer.
Qualifying people with 'average' credit 'stats' for homeloans.
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[May 7, 2009 4:51:21 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Gothmog1065

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Somewhat of a side track, but it goes to the "elitist" aspect:

If someone like gothmog. the self-declared king of cobalt, still doesn't know that Master is well above average, that shows how right slimbutt was for using it as an example.

Repost for those who don't know: {percentages snipped}

Holy abuse of statistics, Batman!

Remember that the greenies who show up, bilge (e.g.) badly once, and then disappear are among those ables for the 10 days they're on the curve.

And those utls that puzzle once every 10 days to keep on the list also skew things the other direction, as do skilled players that use alts until their standings get "too good" (e.g., much above Able). But, I seriously doubt that any of these has a major impact. The vast majority of players, play.
I'm glad Darksand understands the concept I'm pointing out.

Yes, your stats are correct for the entire ocean's population. I also guarantee you that for every ult that keeps their stats once a week, there are probably 20-50 greenies that play a puzzle once or twice, do crappy and skew the bottom greatly. This is especially applicable on green oceans where I can do much better than on midnight (Because the puzzles are heavily skewed toward the top in comparison). Just as you can't use those few Ults that keep their ults up once a week, you can't really count those pirates who play a few times then quit. I'd say half - two thirds of the able pirates don't even try.

 
 
Oh and someone who's *all* master and below? In what, all 20 puzzles? That's well, well below average.

Nice strawman. No one, not gothmog, slimbutt nor I, were talking about multiple standings, just whether "master is an average stat", and it isn't. It might be for forum posters and monarchs of large flags though.

What about the guy who can consistently get ultimate bilging but can't pull anything but Master or below in everything else?
----------------------------------------
Nemesis wrote: 
You ruined my joke, Goth.
Arakael wrote: 
Goth is right, as usual.
Blobbles wrote: 
Goth is right. *shudders*

[May 7, 2009 7:33:40 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
vnork



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The problem is that "average pirate" can mean different things to different people. It's not necessarily true that one definition is better or more accurate than the others, which is why it's silly to try to flame Gothmog for referring to a different one.

The definition that Slimbutt and Algol and the others are using is the average of anyone who's puzzled once in the last 10 days. Under that definition, distinguished/able is defined to be average.

Another perfectly acceptable definition is to log on and randomly sample a population of the online players. With that method, it's definitely possible that master would be an average stat, or at least in that general ballpark. To me, this is the more intuitive and useful measure.

Gothmog may indeed be out-of-touch with the newer pirates, I don't know him well at all. But using the perception of the "average pirate" to show that he's out of touch is a bit misguided.

-Vnork

Edit: Another point: Being active in a puzzle in the last 10 days is used for the purposes of determining a scoring curve, but there's nothing intrinsically magical about that 10 day window. It's basically an arbitrary time frame. There's no reason that your sample has to include all the pirates active in the last 10 days. For the purposes of calculating the "average active pirate", you could just as easily define an active pirate as having puzzled in in the last 5 days, and the curve would definitely shift quite a bit. You'd expect that those who don't puzzle every 5 days would be overall worse puzzlers, I would think.
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[Edit 4 times, last edit by vnork at May 7, 2009 9:06:41 PM]
[May 7, 2009 8:51:07 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Gillie017

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Another perfectly acceptable definition is to log on and randomly sample a population of the online players. With that method, it's definitely possible that master would be an average stat, or at least in that general ballpark. To me, this is the more intuitive and useful measure.


Time spent online is an important consideration in determining the "average" pirate. Methods based on activity over the past 10 days (or whatever time period) give equal weighting to seriously addicted players who puzzle non-stop and labour alts who are logged on once a week to renew labour.

The shape of the distributions of scores needs also to be considered in the choice of a parametric or non-parametric statistic to indicate the "average".

So, rather than being merely "perfectly acceptable", taking a random sample of players online would be a much preferred method for determining the "average" pirate.
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If a bird looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's probably a Huntard .
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Gillie017 at May 7, 2009 10:04:06 PM]
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ssandv



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They aren't useful because some other people out there other than myself and Polly (We're doing fine with forums, surveys, office hours etc.) aren't able to access them. And other people out there (other than myself and Polly - we're just weighing in on what OTHER people think. Don't ever consider our posts as personal feelings or selfish in any way) might feel left out.
Won't somebody please think of the other people who we're advocating for! (Note, -not- myself and Polly. We're completely objective and are only looking out for the masses, who's feelings and thoughts we know, and cherish.)

Dorien knows how to represent.
----------------------------------------
Darksand (back again!)
Obsidian: Peace and Quiet-Chaos
Midnight (rarely): Forbidden Dreams-Dies Irae
Leif wrote: 
I understand you'll ignore this as it doesn't support your paranoia.

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Rick9109

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I can tell you the ones I went to had at least one player who hires everyone from the notice board to everything and is a captain of a crew that's lasted for 5 years at a high level based on reaching out to people who the elitists neglect.

Greeter pillages?


No, greeter pillages don't work very well. Taking greenies out on real pillages is much more educational and useful, and it's much more satisfying to put a thousand poe in a greenies hands than a hundred.

As for the stats, I don't know the statistics, but my anecdotal feeling is that generally a player with all masters is pretty useful. But I guess, if I'm saying this in the same post where I am telling you guys that I take on learnings. All the same master in sails usually translates to good which usually translates to enough tokens to nav without adjusting your style too much.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Rick9109 at May 9, 2009 2:28:58 AM]
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sweetnessc

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Masters perform just fine for most circumstances.
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[May 9, 2009 12:53:49 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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The problem is that "average pirate" can mean different things to different people. It's not necessarily true that one definition is better or more accurate than the others, which is why it's silly to try to flame Gothmog for referring to a different one.

The definition that Slimbutt and Algol and the others are using is the average of anyone who's puzzled once in the last 10 days. Under that definition, distinguished/able is defined to be average.

Another perfectly acceptable definition is to log on and randomly sample a population of the online players. With that method, it's definitely possible that master would be an average stat, or at least in that general ballpark. To me, this is the more intuitive and useful measure.

OK, I had some time to day, so I wrote up a perl script to parse the yoweb pages to collect pirate stats. I then went onto Viridian, did a /who to get a list of the vessels that were out on the ocean, then queried the stats of actual pirates that were actually on ships and looked at their stats.

I got a list of 110 pirates on vessels. Of those, 52 were able in bilging, 47 were able in sailing and 54 were able in carp. yes, that is a little under the expected value of 55, but well within thin the margin of error for that sample size.

The average pirate that actually gets onto ships is Able.

 
Another point: Being active in a puzzle in the last 10 days is used for the purposes of determining a scoring curve, but there's nothing intrinsically magical about that 10 day window. It's basically an arbitrary time frame. There's no reason that your sample has to include all the pirates active in the last 10 days. For the purposes of calculating the "average active pirate", you could just as easily define an active pirate as having puzzled in in the last 5 days, and the curve would definitely shift quite a bit. You'd expect that those who don't puzzle every 5 days would be overall worse puzzlers, I would think.

No, the curve would not shift if you had a shorter time frame, but it would become less stable. Cutting the sample size in half just means that about half the pirates that puzzle every 10 days will be included. Pirates that puzzle only 20 days would be cut down from 50% representation to 25%. It doesn't make any difference, it is just the margin of error that will increase and with it, the volatility.
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Gothmog1065

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I'm no professional data collector, but you use one sample from one instance in time and tout that as unerring fact?

You may be right in a sense, but I still hold true to my beliefs.
----------------------------------------
Nemesis wrote: 
You ruined my joke, Goth.
Arakael wrote: 
Goth is right, as usual.
Blobbles wrote: 
Goth is right. *shudders*

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vnork



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OK, I had some time to day, so I wrote up a perl script to parse the yoweb pages to collect pirate stats. I then went onto Viridian, did a /who to get a list of the vessels that were out on the ocean, then queried the stats of actual pirates that were actually on ships and looked at their stats.

I got a list of 110 pirates on vessels. Of those, 52 were able in bilging, 47 were able in sailing and 54 were able in carp. yes, that is a little under the expected value of 55, but well within thin the margin of error for that sample size.

The average pirate that actually gets onto ships is Able.

There were only 110 pirates on ships on Viridian? Just a single sea monster hunt will have 60-75 jobbers, and you often have 2-3 of those going on at once. I'm not sure of your methodology, but missing a frig of the more skilled jobbers on the ocean will really skew the results. Also I'm not sure of the time frame of the test, but anticipation of a large blockade on Viridian like at Tigerleaf may skew the results as well. One data point just isn't enough.

Also, you have no idea if they're active in the puzzle you're measuring, and you're under-representing pirates that spend most of their time carousing, chatting, etc.

 
No, the curve would not shift if you had a shorter time frame, but it would become less stable. Cutting the sample size in half just means that about half the pirates that puzzle every 10 days will be included. Pirates that puzzle only 20 days would be cut down from 50% representation to 25%. It doesn't make any difference, it is just the margin of error that will increase and with it, the volatility.

I'm not sure I understand you. If you can conclude that pirates that puzzle only every 20 days do worse than those that puzzle every 5 days, then the time frame matters a great deal.

-Vnork
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Dougerarg

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If I may ask, as I am really interested by the original intent of this thread although I am only coming into just now, how did this thread deviate from a discussion on whether or not we should hold Monarch meetings again to arguing how to determine the "average" pirate (which, I think, is an argument that cannot be settled.)

Sorry for being "that guy." :(
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Scervy of Hunter
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Retired YPP player. Miss all my old pals from long ago
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Gillie017

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A biased sample gives biased results.

If there really wasn't a SMH out then I would imagine that a lot of highly skilled pirates would not be jobbing for random pillages but instead on land waiting for a SMH to begin. They would have been missed in the small non-random sample of 110 pirates.

If you want an accurate indication of the "average" pirate, the sample needs to randomly select from all pirates online. You would also need to sample at different times of the day to cover the many different activities of an ocean.
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wrs1864b

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The King of Cobalt wrote: 
You may be right in a sense, but I still hold true to my beliefs.

gah.

We show you data from an SQL query lizthegrey did that shows half the pirates are Able. Response: Oh! we don't believe that! You need to sample people online! And, on green oceans too 'cause their curve is easier. I go out and collect data that shows that half the pirates are Able. Response: you can't change what I believe!

Fine.

Believe whatever you want. Believe the earth is flat and whatever else.

I'm going follow the data.

vnork wrote: 
There were only 110 pirates on ships on Viridian? Just a single sea monster hunt will have 60-75 jobbers, and you often have 2-3 of those going on at once. I'm not sure of your methodology, but missing a frig of the more skilled jobbers on the ocean will really skew the results. Also I'm not sure of the time frame of the test, but anticipation of a large blockade on Viridian like at Tigerleaf may skew the results as well. One data point just isn't enough.

No, there weren't just 110 pirates on the ships, I intended to just collect about 100 for a sample size 'cause it is a lot more fun to write the program than collect the data. I got through I think about half the ships that showed up on the /who (and that will only show one arch, IIRC), and I gave up in the middle of a frig. Yeah, there is a bias toward people on ships with names that begin with "A" instead of "Z", but I don't think that is a big deal.

I finished collecting the data about 10 minutes before my post, I don't think there were any blockades going on still.

 
Also, you have no idea if they're active in the puzzle you're measuring, and you're under-representing pirates that spend most of their time carousing, chatting, etc.

GAh. Excluding parlor tarts was deliberate! People complained about the average not being the pirates they job than just the data Lizthegrey showed because jobbers are different!

I tell you what. *YOU* go collect some data.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
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Gillie017

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Your sample was a small number of pirates from one archipelago. with SMH charts all over the place and often outside an ocean's main archipelago, your sampling scheme was flawed and introduced bias into the sample.

In statistics, sampling is everything. You failed to take a random sample so your results are worthless.
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If a bird looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's probably a Huntard .
[May 9, 2009 5:59:51 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
vnork



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I tell you what. *YOU* go collect some data.

I just used almost your exact methodology, Algol, to collect data on Sage. I did this counting by hand. I used the arch I was standing in when reading your post, and used a /w to get a list of ships. I started from the bottom of the list instead of at the top like you did. I went through the first 110 pirates and counted the number of ables in bilge.

After going through 110 pirates, I counted 16 ables. You can't draw conclusions from one data point with a biased sample, it's just not statistically-sound.

"Following the data" is worthless when the data is not of high enough quality.

-Vnork

edit: It's perfectly possible that you're right about able being an average stat, but you can't statistically demonstrate it unless you can take a better sample of the ocean.
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[Edit 2 times, last edit by vnork at May 9, 2009 6:23:00 PM]
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wrs1864b

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After going through 110 pirates, I counted 16 ables. You can't draw conclusions from one data point with a biased sample, it's just not statistically-sound.

One of my reasons for choosing viridian (apart from Goth wanting green oceans) was because it has three archs, all about the same strength. It isn't like midnight with ruby having mostly high end pillagers.

When counting Ables, I counted their arch rating, when it was different from the ocean-wide. It was just easier to grep that way.

Spot checking sage by hand, I didn't get anything like the results you got, but that could be due to differences in archs.

The pirates I checked on viridian were:
abbylisa alexattack allyyzz almagedon anabel angelfiredra armend arryarrio astrangel awesomness babakanush benavent blackhook blueeater bongoss branco briankrause calel captainfede cecilla cerati cerialis childmonoxid chipy claudia colodude colter coorsbud cpunkm crawshank crewshrink cudly cytosinee dapheria dayo deadeath defence devilmaker diabby discreto dizzyliz eldacar etaripswife ethalouise ezes ezie gabbagump garfieldd gaurdianz gemestre gona hamino hangkiucheun harleyy heidii holyjihad huberclic hybirius ihavechalupa illegitimate imsooa irie jackrox jeter jocc joshmoshh jumbol kalman kentran kickem kirpikachu koan ladyblood legrant leonn lovelymaya ltzkrystal martobain mckee millonario minibrawler mms moneymarc mr nachoshere nassim nega nicklepickle nniicco paperdoll porom queenmona rodaein saxtus sazurn secila shadowshadel shellim skrall slyx snickerguy swankyrambo synergy thetyman tinneke toppy unanon vexen werrty wolfman yiayia

the ones that were able were:
abbylisa armend arryarrio astrangel awesomness benavent blackhook blueeater bongoss branco briankrause calel childmonoxid colter cpunkm crawshank crewshrink cudly dapheria deadeath devilmaker eldacar ezes gemestre gona hamino hangkiucheun illegitimate imsooa irie jackrox jeter jocc joshmoshh kentran kickem kirpikachu legrant lovelymaya mckee minibrawler mr nicklepickle nniicco queenmona saxtus secila shadowshadel skrall slyx snickerguy synergy toppy werrty

(I can get a list of the ships too, if that's important. i was up to 69 of 123 on the /w list).

Can you tell me which arch you checked on sage, and who you checked?

Even by the claims of "master is average", I find 16 out of 110 to be very very low.
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[May 9, 2009 6:44:24 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
vnork



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Can you tell me which arch you checked on sage, and who you checked?

Even by the claims of "master is average", I find 16 out of 110 to be very very low.

I checked the Osprey arch on Sage (I run a fort in that arch), which is certainly the most "elite" arch on Sage, and the location of the current triketos Atlantis maps on Sage. I checked by hand, so I don't have a record of the pirate names.

The SMHs at a trik map, which might screen for master+, could have been excluded from your sample because they were in another arch. Without a more random sample, you can potentially open your data up to really large errors.

-Vnork
[May 9, 2009 6:58:58 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Gillie017

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Spot checking sage by hand, I didn't get anything like the results you got, but that could be due to differences in archs.


This is why, as Vnork demonstrated, sampling from a single archipelago is fundamentally flawed. To get an understanding of an ocean's "average" pirate, you MUST sample from the whole ocean.
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[May 9, 2009 7:01:23 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Spot checking sage by hand, I didn't get anything like the results you got, but that could be due to differences in archs.


This is why, as Vnork demonstrated, sampling from a single archipelago is fundamentally flawed. To get an understanding of an ocean's "average" pirate, you MUST sample from the whole ocean.

And, as I said earlier, I explicitly picked Viridian because their archs are *MUCH* more uniform, and each arch represents a third of the ocean. You are right, for oceans other than Viridian/Cobalt, you would need to sample the ocean, including archs that have no colonized islands. Maybe Viridian is vastly different from other oceans, but I really doubt it and doing a good sampling there is much easier.

Also, contrary to intuition, a sample size of 100 is not that small, that was well over 10% of the online population.

I admit that I thought it was "obvious" when I originally said I sampled Viridian that there wouldn't be that much bias. I should have been more explicit about that. Now, why Vnork would pick such a biased sample and not say anything, I'm not sure.

OK, go ahead and repeat the a survey with at least as little bias as I did, or Lizthegrey did, and then we can compare stuff.
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[May 9, 2009 7:49:16 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
vnork



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And, as I said earlier, I explicitly picked Viridian because their archs are *MUCH* more uniform, and each arch represents a third of the ocean. You are right, for oceans other than Viridian/Cobalt, you would need to sample the ocean, including archs that have no colonized islands. Maybe Viridian is vastly different from other oceans, but I really doubt it and doing a good sampling there is much easier.

Also, contrary to intuition, a sample size of 100 is not that small, that was well over 10% of the online population.

I admit that I thought it was "obvious" when I originally said I sampled Viridian that there wouldn't be that much bias. I should have been more explicit about that. Now, why Vnork would pick such a biased sample and not say anything, I'm not sure.

OK, go ahead and repeat the a survey with at least as little bias as I did, or Lizthegrey did, and then we can compare stuff.

I picked the arch that I was currently standing in when I read your post. As far as I know, I followed your methodology as closely as I could, and got a very biased result. Your sample could have been just as biased, but you don't know if it was or not.

As long as you sample non-randomly from one arch, your data is worthless just as mine was.

-Vnork
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by vnork at May 9, 2009 7:59:37 PM]
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