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ssandv



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Re: Conference of the Monarch (Thoughts) Reply to this Post
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Would a new survey *and* a new conference be worse, better, or equal to just a new survey, then? I submit that doing both would be better than just doing the survey. If you don't think monarchs of large active flags have a huge interest in attracting and retaining new players I think you're a bit...off center.

Seriously. Enough about puzzling stats. You're doing it wrong, but either way it's not relevant.

What would be *bad* about a monarch conference, provided it wasn't the only organized thing they did to solicit information from the playerbase, besides people with too much free time getting bent out of shape that they're not special enough...again...? (Besides, schadenfreude is a positive externality for some of us.)
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Darksand (back again!)
Obsidian: Peace and Quiet-Chaos
Midnight (rarely): Forbidden Dreams-Dies Irae
Leif wrote: 
I understand you'll ignore this as it doesn't support your paranoia.

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vnork



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When this thread started, I thought that monarchs and forum posters weren't that out of touch, but all these posts defending the idea that master is an average stat has changed my mind.

You misunderstand the motivation of those challenging your results.

Gothmog excluded, the focus of the feedback on your statistical data collection was to help you gather the highest data quality possible. No one other than Gothmog (that I recall) said that they believed "master" was an average stat. People just said that it was possible that it was, and that your statistical analysis wasn't rigorous enough to support your conclusion that it wasn't.

When you start gathering data already convinced of what you think you'll find, it's easy for latent biases to creep in unconsciously. It's useful to have a counterbalance, and it's not a personal attack on you or anything. For example, I know Gillie017 has spent her professional career doing statistical analysis and peer-reviewing the analysis of others, so she's passionate about conducting well-designed experiments.

I know many objections that have been raised may seem pedantic to most people, but if you use statistics to try to prove a point, you should expect people to question your methodology. It doesn't necessarily mean that they believe the opposite of your conclusion, it just means they think you're making an unjustified leap in your logic.

-Vnork
[May 11, 2009 5:28:42 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
marundel

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Now that three people have tried and failed to rerail the thread to something other than the science of statistics, I hereby declare this thread not fun to read anymore.
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vnork



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Now that three people have tried and failed to rerail the thread to something other than the science of statistics, I hereby declare this thread not fun to read anymore.

The thread had already gone in about 5 circles of repeating the exact same thing before the statistics discussion even started.

-Vnork
[May 11, 2009 5:33:47 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
marundel

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Admittedly, it had degenerated into two sides arguing the same point over and over, but some new questions have been raised since then.

I wouldn't mind seeing the statistical argument continue, just in a separate thread with a relevant title
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Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean
Prince, Super Awesomeness
SO, Boochin' Drunks

Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge
[May 11, 2009 5:35:45 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.thehomebrewstore.com    meadbrewer [Link]  Go to top 
Gothmog1065

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I'm not saying it doesnt count (Getting more samples makes things better).

Next sample you pull get their ages as well (Using the Jolly rogers), and see what happens to stats by age.
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You ruined my joke, Goth.
Arakael wrote: 
Goth is right, as usual.
Blobbles wrote: 
Goth is right. *shudders*

[May 11, 2009 5:40:22 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
sweetnessc

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One again, Darksand hits the nail on the head - more feedback is better, through as many different channels as possible, to reach as much of the playerbase as possible.
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My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. ~ Jack Layton

Sublime is shame.
[May 11, 2009 5:41:32 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Vnork recently wrote wrote: 
No one other than Gothmog (that I recall) said that they believed "master" was an average stat.

Vnork earlier wrote wrote: 
Another perfectly acceptable definition {of average} is to log on and randomly sample a population of the online players. With that method, it's definitely possible that master would be an average stat, or at least in that general ballpark.

Pizzahutpete wrote: 
If it's the mean, and 50% are Able, with a scaling down to 1%-2% Ultimate, the mean very well may be in the high Respected to low Master area.

Mind, I don't consider either of you no ones. ;-)

I collected data on the average jobber for basic duty puzzle related stats intentionally because I thought it would be a much more useful stat than the average pirate online. I really don't think the average will go up if you include people on islands.

 
When you start gathering data already convinced of what you think you'll find, it's easy for latent biases to creep in unconsciously.

Indeed it is, but I've done surveys in the past expecting one thing and finding another and changed my mind.

I do find it curious that people have jumped in, become very passionate/"pedantic" about sampling bias when the issue of what an average stat is, and yet they haven't raised the issue when deciding if sampling the top 10 monarchs leads to bias. The exception seems to be Darksand.

Earlier, Darksand wrote wrote: 
Someone who has nothing above a master is, in fact, a seriously below average puzzler, unless the correlation between different rankings is *very* high.

I just did a quick check of the survey I did today. Out of 395 pirates, 314 have at least one stat that is master or above. I'm not sure if the other 81 count as being "seriously below average", but yeah, they are not average.

edit: d'oh master *or above*
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by wrs1864b at May 11, 2009 8:10:29 PM]
[May 11, 2009 6:28:05 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Gillie017

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A conference of monarchs could be useful to OOO but, as Darksand said, should not be the only source of information.

The top 10 monarchs would in no way be considered a random sample of players but they might have sufficient insight and experience in game to help OOO identify issues that warrant a more rigorous investigation amongst the entire player base.

If you're going to use a sample to make inference back to a population, you have to be sure your methodology is sound. I have no preconceived notion of what the "average" pirate actually is but I do know that there are a number of potential biases in your samples which need to be addressed before claiming they are representative of the population.
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[May 11, 2009 7:39:48 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
vnork



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Mind, I don't consider either of you no ones. ;-)

Acknowledging that something is a definite possibility is different from believing that it is true. It's possible to be agnostic in the face of uncertain options. I'm not sure how those statements that you quoted are contradictory in any way.

 
I do find it curious that people have jumped in, become very passionate/"pedantic" about sampling bias when the issue of what an average stat is, and yet they haven't raised the issue when deciding if sampling the top 10 monarchs leads to bias. The exception seems to be Darksand.

This is because sampling the top 10 monarchs undoubtedly leads to bias. There is pretty much absolutely no question that the top 10 monarchs aren't representative of the ocean. Has anyone even questioned that? The key question is how much the monarchs can approximate being unbiased, and whether it's worth asking their input even if they're utterly biased. I do think that holding a conference of monarchs is worthwhile, not really for the prospects of improving the game, but for increasing the perception that OOO listens to their customers.

-Vnork
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by vnork at May 11, 2009 8:05:47 PM]
[May 11, 2009 8:04:41 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Kotetsu534



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What do we find out through monarch conferences that we can't through a GD topic?

By the way, accusing people of being self-interested is more childish than accepting that it's pretty much guaranteed every one of us has biases. I thought the purpose of the open forum was to allow problems to be raised and ideas to solve them suggested and discussed. Whether or not suggestion A benefits the suggester is irrelevant when it comes to deciding whether ot not it would improve the game. Someone being interested only in their own gain might stop you caring to associate with them in-game, but it shouldn't stop them being able to discuss their/others' ideas.
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[May 11, 2009 11:43:51 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Gothmog1065

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The only way OOO is going to get the thoughts of EVERYONE is to do what they've been doing, which is surveys and advertise it in game. Maybe offer a reward of 1000 poe or something for doing them as well.
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Nemesis wrote: 
You ruined my joke, Goth.
Arakael wrote: 
Goth is right, as usual.
Blobbles wrote: 
Goth is right. *shudders*

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wrs1864b

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One again, Darksand hits the nail on the head - more feedback is better, through as many different channels as possible, to reach as much of the playerbase as possible.

No it isn't. More feedback from sources that have the same (or worse) biases than the forums but takes more time to do is a waste of time. I guess if OOO had unlimited resource, sure, they could do a monarch conference too, but Gothmog is right, the surveys they do are probably far more useful in reaching the average player.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[May 12, 2009 5:19:58 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Talisker

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No it isn't. More feedback from sources that have the same (or worse) biases than the forums but takes more time to do is a waste of time.

Yes, this is true. It's a good thing this hasn't happened.
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[May 12, 2009 6:27:16 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
ssandv



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I did a random* survey and determined that the average player is able at constructing complete sentences, and something below that at being coherent. Therefore we should keep the average player far, far, away from this, because the time lost trying to make heads or tails of their gibberish is clearly not worth it.

*I asked one person standing at a dock, and concluded that it was representative. I try to learn from my mistakes, so I didn't ever do it again.

(Don't ask me if that was sarcasm. I'm not sure myself, so I can't possibly give you a good answer.)

More seriously:

Do you think monarch conferences are resource-intensive? They take one OM and a party line, for what, 2 hours per ocean? (If that, the way some ocean populations are these days...) I suspect that getting the useful information out of an ocean-wide survey actually takes a good amount of effort.
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Darksand (back again!)
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Leif wrote: 
I understand you'll ignore this as it doesn't support your paranoia.

[May 12, 2009 8:42:36 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Talisker

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Do you think monarch conferences are resource-intensive? They take one OM and a party line, for what, 2 hours per ocean? (If that, the way some ocean populations are these days...) I suspect that getting the useful information out of an ocean-wide survey actually takes a good amount of effort.


The first Midnight conference ran 50 minutes. The Sage one I attended was atypical due to phone issues so was all conducted in game.
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Leif
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I can't respond because I do not understand what the hell you are talking about. Sorry.

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StuManchu

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Has anybody really put any effort into explaining why they SHOULDN'T have these?

Did they do any harm? Really? How can an OM talking to a bunch of players, regardless of their biases/backgrounds/affiliations, about the state of the game be at all bad?

Or are we still kvetching about how to select participants? Because THAT particular argument is just a veiled "omg preferential elite treatment rawrrr" type of complaint.

I support conferences of monarchs. In their "current" state, that being how they were conducted before.

Mr. Sand Man... bring me a dream! wrote: 
I did a random* survey and determined that the average player is able at constructing complete sentences, and something below that at being coherent. Therefore we should keep the average player far, far, away from this, because the time lost trying to make heads or tails of their gibberish is clearly not worth it.


Yes, this too. There should be an essay involved in the selection process. OR, have a randomly selected pool of participants, and only enable their outbound pending submission of a coherent writing sample.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by StuManchu at May 12, 2009 9:00:39 AM]
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Squashbuckle

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No it isn't. More feedback from sources that have the same (or worse) biases than the forums but takes more time to do is a waste of time.

Yes, this is true. It's a good thing this hasn't happened.


Actually, it does. Big-time monarchs are mostly forum-goers already.

Add to that the fact that holding an exclusive phone call hurts people's feelings and makes non-monarch forumgoers feel left out and you have a net negative for OOO. It's never a good idea to make customers feel like they don't matter.
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Fiddler

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There should be an essay involved in the selection process.

For the second conference I had to write a haiku.
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Talisker

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No it isn't. More feedback from sources that have the same (or worse) biases than the forums but takes more time to do is a waste of time.

Yes, this is true. It's a good thing this hasn't happened.

Actually, it does. Big-time monarchs are mostly forum-goers already.

Disagreed. Taking from the Midnight one I attended there were a number that were not forums goers, much less GD posters. In the Sage conference, there were a number who had only ever posted in the Sage* forums. In my experience this tends to be true of Green Oceans in general, in that many are more parley centric and less GD-Centric. There's some crossover but not to the degree of some other oceans.

 
Add to that the fact that holding an exclusive phone call hurts people's feelings and makes non-monarch forumgoers feel left out and you have a net negative for OOO. It's never a good idea to make customers feel like they don't matter.


I think you're projecting. We've had people who didn't attend, and people whose flags were "snubbed" here posting in favor.
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I can't respond because I do not understand what the hell you are talking about. Sorry.

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wrs1864b

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Do you think monarch conferences are resource-intensive?

Compared with Hypnos showing up on the dock and holding a scheduled or impromptu office-hours thing? Yes. And I think the latter probably gives a better idea of what the average pirate is thinking.


The surveys are, in some ways, too structured. Game design is too ad-hoc. I really don't know how structured the conferences were, but the notes that were typed up looked like a pretty random selection of posts to GD that Faulkston would normally lock. I didn't see anything in those notes that hadn't been posted before to the forums.

I could see some use for a middle ground as for structure. For example, instead of the current surveys*, ask people for the top 5 things you would like to see OOO do in the next 6 months, with a strict limit of 160 characters and an option to point a link to a GD thread that was started *BEFORE* the survey started.

*Pet peeve: The surveys all seem to ask questions like "don't you just love the new changes to pillaging?" with the only choices of answer being "Yes, they are awesome!"; "Yes, they are good."; and "Yeah, they are ok." I haven't actually completed several surveys because options for answers all seemed really bad.
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sweetnessc

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Polly wrote: 
It's never a good idea to make customers feel like they don't matter.


Because saying to your customers 'Hey, we are so interested in what you're thinking and what you think the game needs that we're gonna drop several hours of staff time and a grand or so on a bunch of telecons to find out what we might've been overlooking' sure made me feel unwanted the first time it was done and I wasn't invited.

Right.

Reality is, some people have sour grapes no matter what happens. Those people should not drive the company into putting on shackles instead of doing what's in its customers', and its own, best interests. Hopefully the manner in which people post to the forums gives the company a pretty good read on who those people are and what's motivating their commentary.
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My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. ~ Jack Layton

Sublime is shame.
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Squashbuckle

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The people invited to a monarch's conference are already winning the game. Most players are not winning the game, but are doing their best to get to that level in some way. When OOO last held a conference, it was those mid-level players, described as "whiney" by Bridalgirl, who were rightfully put off by the whole thing. Why would the average player expect the typical monarch to advocate for their needs? Their needs (a chance to rise to the top) are directly in conflict with a monarch's goals (the desire to stay on top).

When a game company polls the winners for ideas, it effectively sends the message that they plan to keep those same people at the top of the leaderboard. That's a nasty message to send to the vast majority of players.

 
'Hey, we are so interested in what the winners are thinking and what they think the game needs that we're gonna drop several hours of staff time and a grand or so on a bunch of telecons to find out what we might've been overlooking to make the game better for the people already on top'


That's how it read to a lot of people.
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[Edit 2 times, last edit by Squashbuckle at May 12, 2009 12:07:29 PM]
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StuManchu

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Do you mean to you?

Because you're the only person bothering to raise these "issues".
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[May 12, 2009 12:07:01 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
sweetnessc

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People in a flag like that should look for a new flag. The monarch is there to serve the interests of the people in the flag, not vice versa.

As someone who was not monarch of her flag at the time of either of the conferences, I very much disagree with your view.
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My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. ~ Jack Layton

Sublime is shame.
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Talisker

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When a game company polls the winners for ideas, it effectively sends the message that they plan to keep those same people at the top of the leaderboard. That's a nasty message to send to the vast majority of players.


No it doesn't.
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Leif
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I can't respond because I do not understand what the hell you are talking about. Sorry.

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Squashbuckle

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Do you mean to you?

Because you're the only person bothering to raise these "issues".


I don't mean me. I'm a seasoned forum user who knows how to make OMs and developers hear her opinions even without a phone call. I've even had a face-to-face meeting with some OMs and devs when I visited OOO HQ. I'm not worried about my opinions being heard.

I've also won the game. I share two shoppes on the busiest island in YPP. I co-own a dozen familiars and am captain of a great crew. I'm clearly not a middle class pirate.

If I'm the only one who thinks it makes people feel lousy not to be invited, who were the non-attending "whiners" referenced by a Midnight monarch? I wasn't even among those players - I was an attendee.
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[May 12, 2009 12:15:14 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
StuManchu

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Polly wrote: 
I'm not worried about my opinions being heard.


You sure do post them a lot.

Polly wrote: 
If I'm the only one who thinks it makes people feel lousy not to be invited,


So far, you are! Also, how can you know, because you just said yourself you were an attendee!
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Inschato

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According to Cleaver, the "average" pirate earns about 25 cents an hour, in doubloon value.

Yes, yes that comment was COMPLETELY offtopic. Also, he said that like.. a year ago? It might be different now. :P
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Since when is being the monarch of a big fame flag "winning"? I've never been close to that position, yet most would consider me rather "successful". Anyways, the good monarchs I know bend over backwards to help people in their flag. I would rather hear from someone like that, as opposed to an average player who only looks out for themselves. Just like I would rather hear from somoene who leads Atlantis trips, rather than a jobber who wants a shiny prize for lazing. Is the jobber's point of view important, and do I want them to have fun? Yes and yes, but it is more beneficial to talk to someone who provides that fun for large numbers of players at once.
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Montage of Sage
Mads wrote: 
OK, now I'm convinced. The problem here is that you cannot understand plain English.

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