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wrs1864b

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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It has been about 4 months since I posted the above graphs, so here is an update.

Well, it has been another 4 months, here is another update. Again, read the previous posts with the graphs for all the gory details.


2010-01-20 trading posts
2011-12-03 jubilee opens
2012-01-31 ocean merger
2012-03-21 reboot exploit closed
2013-09-16 extra swabbies



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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Feb 6, 2014 7:22:50 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mnemosyne
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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Apologies for lengthy silence on this. We've been exploring some methods of managing the imbalance on Cerulean, but straightforward fixes that don't rupture vital organs in the great economy beast can be hard to come by.

A solution is currently in testing and we hope to nudge it over to the live servers in the near future.
[Feb 15, 2014 12:05:38 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Apologies for lengthy silence on this. We've been exploring some methods of managing the imbalance on Cerulean, but straightforward fixes that don't rupture vital organs in the great economy beast can be hard to come by.

A solution is currently in testing and we hope to nudge it over to the live servers in the near future.

Thanks!
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Feb 15, 2014 1:33:39 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
TexasBeesh

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Thank you for the update! :)
----------------------------------------
Seatexan - on the Midnight side of Cerulean
LOW RACK PRICES AT DRESSED TO KILL - NAMATH
Always looking for Pollack Sloops!
[Feb 15, 2014 2:03:21 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
xelto

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Thank you for the update! :)

Very much so.

I could care less about Cerulean, of course; I doubt I'm ever going to play on it. But seeing a Real Live Oceanmaster providing updates is always a Very Good Thing.
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Gurndigarn on Emerald Ocean
"Oh, come on. You jobbed onto a ship called the Cursed Isle Raider and you expected *refined*?"
[Feb 15, 2014 2:39:19 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
EmpressTamar

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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I could care less about Cerulean, of course; I doubt I'm ever going to play on it. But seeing a Real Live Oceanmaster providing updates is always a Very Good Thing.


This. Getting an update from an OM is much appreciated and we'd love more of them.
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Empresstamar of Emerald.
Yppedia page

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[Feb 15, 2014 2:49:41 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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I couldn't care less about Cerulean, of course; I doubt I'm ever going to play on it. But seeing a Real Live Oceanmaster providing updates is always a Very Good Thing.

Well, it sounds like things are messy. It is possible that the solution that OOO chooses will have an impact on other oceans. For example, OOO chooses to keep <merchant> bots from crossing inter-ocean links and therefore makes the production and consumption on each sides of the ocean match, it would have a large impact on the Viridian/Malachite sides. Or, if <merchant> bots are willing to travel further to get high prices, that again would have a large change (yeah, that wouldn't actually fix the problem but OOO might not realize that).
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Feb 15, 2014 4:50:54 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
xelto

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Well, it sounds like things are messy. It is possible that the solution that OOO chooses will have an impact on other oceans. For example, OOO chooses to keep <merchant> bots from crossing inter-ocean links and therefore makes the production and consumption on each sides of the ocean match, it would have a large impact on the Viridian/Malachite sides. Or, if <merchant> bots are willing to travel further to get high prices, that again would have a large change (yeah, that wouldn't actually fix the problem but OOO might not realize that).

It strikes me as far easier, if wood is the only issue (and it's the only issue I've heard about on the forums), to create a new island or two that spawn wood, over on the short side. They don't even need to be visible to the players.
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Gurndigarn on Emerald Ocean
"Oh, come on. You jobbed onto a ship called the Cursed Isle Raider and you expected *refined*?"
[Feb 15, 2014 8:39:01 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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It strikes me as far easier, if wood is the only issue (and it's the only issue I've heard about on the forums), to create a new island or two that spawn wood, over on the short side. They don't even need to be visible to the players.

That is certainly a possibility. And, yes, wood is the biggest issue for me, but I don't run all store types.

However other problems were mentioned on this thread. This thread was originally started because sugar cane was was very hard to come by on jubilee, hemp is very expensive and the balance on the dye herbs is a real pain. Moreover, where you placed such an island would create winners and losers, much like the ocean merger did.

In some ways, the best solution would be to decolonize islands and let the <merchant> bots smooth things out. A lot of spawns are on islands with populations well below 100 that have effectively dead economies. They are ok if you can self-supply all your labor (pay hundreds of dollars per month for subs) and sell things on the forums, or self-supply a flag, but even that is hard.


Edit:

Another idea I had a long time ago that would help a great deal is that if the bid price of a commodity on a colonized island drops too far below the tax value, some of that commodity spawn should be loaded onto <merchant> bots. The further below the tax value, the more should be delivered via <merchant> bots.

There certainly should be a nice profit margin between the bid ticket price and the tax value, we want it to still be profitable for traders to ship stuff, but if the bid price of wood is 16-17 and the tax value is 23+, having some go to <merchant> bots would help. Note that since there is a huge amount of wood being bought dockside for 35-40PoE, <merchant> bots delivering wood to those shops would *raise* the tax value, thus pushing even more wood delivery to <merchant> bots. This would continue until the dockside price of wood dropped to something reasonable.

Spawning <merchant> bots instead of filling bid tickets should happen sooner for bulky goods because shipping bulky goods generates so little fun for the game. <Merchant> bots should also be much more willing to ship bulky goods long distances.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by wrs1864b at Feb 16, 2014 8:40:51 AM]
[Feb 16, 2014 4:31:14 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
marundel

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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It strikes me as far easier, if wood is the only issue (and it's the only issue I've heard about on the forums), to create a new island or two that spawn wood, over on the short side. They don't even need to be visible to the players.

Wood is not the only issue. Wood is simply the example that Algol chose to track. As someone who runs all types of commodities, I can state that I am seeing similar dearths of Cobalt-side merchant activity in hemp, sugar cane, tellurium, cubanite, papagoite, sassafras, serandite, madder, nettle, thorianite and others. It is less noticeable on many of the commodities that are not so often used (indigo, sassafras, and such), but it is still noticeable for those of us dealing in those items. Algol's theory wouldn't make much sense if the issue only affected one type of spawn.
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Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean
Prince, Super Awesomeness
SO, Boochin' Drunks

Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge
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TexasBeesh

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Merchant bot delivery on Namath has come to a halt. It used to be hemp was delivered quite often.

Mommawolf ran a flag event that got bots to deliver hemp once again on Namath. They moved and sold a ton of hemp. I am not sure how much, but it was a lot. After this, the bots began to deliver.

I think they delivered for 2 weeks maybe after the event ended.

One person keeps their hemp price at 11+ and the bots don't seem to care. They still don't deliver.

I am sure ocean activity is part of the issue.

Rhinoceros Ridge spawns hemp and it is right next to Namath.
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Seatexan - on the Midnight side of Cerulean
LOW RACK PRICES AT DRESSED TO KILL - NAMATH
Always looking for Pollack Sloops!
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Momma_Wolf



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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Minor quibble - Rhino doesn't spawn hemp, Eclipse does, but it's still not - that - far away.

The experiment Seatexan is referring to was our flag moving 10,000 hemp to Namath, and selling it to ourselves and others from the ships.

Namath did get hemp deliveries for a couple weeks after my experiment, but neither Heph Forge or Xi got any in that time - and we still don't, despite outrageously high dockside buy prices. Bid price on hemp has been 3 -5 for literally months, if not years - and it only goes to 5 when someone is very impatient. Dockside buy of 11?!?! and we still don't get <merchant> deliveries?
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Mommawolf, lurking on most oceans
Captain, Blackwolf Marauders of Midnight, now Cerulean
Queen, Victory Raiders of Midnight, now Cerulean

cmdrzoom said:
 

Anyone may demand answers of the gods.
Getting them is another matter.

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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Momma_Wolf at Feb 17, 2014 10:10:30 AM]
[Feb 17, 2014 10:08:49 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
TexasBeesh

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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http://yppedia.puzzlepirates.com/Rhinoceros_Ridge_%28Cerulean%29

Rhino does spawn hemp :) but you can't bid on it. Merchant bots still have access I thought, unless they changed that.

It is how we get Sassafras. Only Yax and Macaw spawn it (can't bid there) and bots do deliver it.

Merchant bot delivery needs to be "upped". It is good to know that the devs are working on it.

Mommawolf's event was awesome, but a LOT of work for only one island to get bot delivery.
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Seatexan - on the Midnight side of Cerulean
LOW RACK PRICES AT DRESSED TO KILL - NAMATH
Always looking for Pollack Sloops!
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by TexasBeesh at Feb 17, 2014 10:38:29 AM]
[Feb 17, 2014 10:23:53 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Mnemosyne wrote: 
A solution is currently in testing and we hope to nudge it over to the live servers in the near future.

Is there any chance you can at least vaguely describe the solution? It is possible that players can give some insight about how effective the solution is.


Pizzahutpete wrote: 
{...} I am seeing similar dearths of Cobalt-side merchant activity in hemp, sugar cane, tellurium, cubanite, papagoite, sassafras, serandite, madder, nettle, thorianite and others.

As a data junky, I keep track of lots of stuff, but I try to spare the forums from being dumped on too much. A few of those commodities you listed seem to be much *easier* to get on the cobalt side, in particular, cubanite, papagoite and thorianite are cheaper now, and I don't see a big change in serandite or sassafras.

Seatexan wrote: 
Rhinoceros Ridge spawns hemp and it is right next to Namath.

Yes, Rhinoceros Ridge spawns hemp, and is even one of the ocean's largest spawns, but it also spawns lorandite, of which, 87% of it spawns on the cobalt side. With the price of lorandite being offered on the midnight side, a single unit of lorandite would make the <merchant> bot go elsewhere. You would probably have to offer to buy hemp at 100PoE/unit to make it more profitable for the <merchant> bot to go to Namath.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
[Feb 17, 2014 12:26:13 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
TexasBeesh

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Well the merchants USED to deliver on Namath and Mommawolf managed to get them to deliver again at 6 poe per unit of hemp.

I wonder if buying lorandite and hemp at the same time would get us more hemp...
----------------------------------------
Seatexan - on the Midnight side of Cerulean
LOW RACK PRICES AT DRESSED TO KILL - NAMATH
Always looking for Pollack Sloops!
[Feb 17, 2014 12:56:15 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
marundel

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Pizzahutpete wrote: 
{...} I am seeing similar dearths of Cobalt-side merchant activity in hemp, sugar cane, tellurium, cubanite, papagoite, sassafras, serandite, madder, nettle, thorianite and others.

As a data junky, I keep track of lots of stuff, but I try to spare the forums from being dumped on too much. A few of those commodities you listed seem to be much *easier* to get on the cobalt side, in particular, cubanite, papagoite and thorianite are cheaper now, and I don't see a big change in serandite or sassafras.

As stated, it's less noticeable on commodities that are used less often. Sassafras is only used in black enamel and a mug. Thorianite and serandite are used primarily in just a couple swords and a couple pigments respectively. Once purchased, it's a while before they are needed again, so the absence of spawn or of bot deliveries is less noticeable. Add to that people like me who run those particular commodities over long distances for a small profit, and it would be little wonder that they don't necessarily show up in your stats. In fact, I still have close to 1000 cubanite and several hundred serandite on a ship that I ran in months ago from the Midnight side, and about once a week or so sell off for profit when the right buy prices show up on the Cobalt side. Bots used to deliver about a dozen units of sass a day among the four southern Onyx islands. I think I've seen a dozen units total over the last month... but the buy prices don't change much because the demand for skull mugs and black enamel itself isn't very high at the moment.
----------------------------------------
Pizzahutpete on the Cerulean Ocean
Prince, Super Awesomeness
SO, Boochin' Drunks

Pizzahutpete everywhere, thanks to the merge
[Feb 17, 2014 1:15:29 PM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message    http://www.thehomebrewstore.com    meadbrewer [Link]  Go to top 
Momma_Wolf



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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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My bad, I don't include spawns on any islands that don't have the ability to bid on it.
----------------------------------------
Mommawolf, lurking on most oceans
Captain, Blackwolf Marauders of Midnight, now Cerulean
Queen, Victory Raiders of Midnight, now Cerulean

cmdrzoom said:
 

Anyone may demand answers of the gods.
Getting them is another matter.

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Aethera21

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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I have to say, depending on what the fix is, it MIGHT interest me in playing again. It is nice to hear that they're looking at it.
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Aethera of Cobalt Cerulean
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[Feb 18, 2014 10:07:46 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
Mnemosyne
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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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Mnemosyne wrote: 
A solution is currently in testing and we hope to nudge it over to the live servers in the near future.

Is there any chance you can at least vaguely describe the solution? It is possible that players can give some insight about how effective the solution is.


Sure. There currently isn't a way to fine-tune some of the baseline numbers that are used in calculating island commodity production without a scary gutting of the system.

This change should allow us to make the necessary adjustments to individual islands on our live servers with minimal mucking around in the commodity system. Once we feel this is working the way we want it to, the plan is to tweak islands on Cerulean in order to better balance out the split of commodities between its two halves.

I'll get a discussion post going once we have some details to share.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Mnemosyne at Feb 18, 2014 8:43:23 PM]
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wrs1864b

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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This change should allow us to make the necessary adjustments to individual islands on our live servers with minimal mucking around in the commodity system.

Again, thank you very much for keeping us in the loop!

I doubt any player really knows how the dynamic spawn system works, but from my understanding of it, that seems quite likely to work. Of course, after two years of it being this way, I'm sure many people have gotten used to it and any change will trigger some HWFO. Heck, even without OOO making any changes, you get occasional HWFO. ;->

Will there be any way to get these numbers similar to how Penguinpaste did at the start of this thread?
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
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TexasBeesh

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Re: The ocean merge is ruining the game Reply to this Post
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http://yppedia.puzzlepirates.com/Release_2014-02-26

Well here's hoping! :)

Rebalanced commodity spawns on Cerulean between Midnight and Cobalt sides of the ocean.
----------------------------------------
Seatexan - on the Midnight side of Cerulean
LOW RACK PRICES AT DRESSED TO KILL - NAMATH
Always looking for Pollack Sloops!
[Feb 26, 2014 11:54:20 AM] Show Printable Version of Post        Send Private Message [Link]  Go to top 
wrs1864b

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Thanks!

And, let the HWFO about spawns are now messed up begin! Cobaltians who are used to lorandite being 1400PoE will cry foul, Midnighters who are used to madder being 210 PoE will claim the spawns have stopped.
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by wrs1864b at Feb 26, 2014 12:37:41 PM]
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wrs1864b

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Ok, it has been 2 months since my last update, and well over a month since the OOO patched the spawns, so I figured I give one final set of graphs.

Comments:

* I think the fix is working well. In general, prices of wood, hemp and cane have dropped to around the price they were before the merger.

* Not only do the graphs show improvement, but I also have some hard-to-explain data based on the sales tax rate vs dock-side market prices that show improvement. I had used this data to check that other oceans did not have problems like Cerulean and now they show that Cerulean is also less skewed for herbs/minerals.

* It is important to take all this with a large grain of salt. The game is designed to have price swings and those normal swings can last months or years. It hasn't been long enough to rule out that this is just normal price swings, but I doubt it.

* Since the the ocean merger, the population and number of shops/stalls have both dropped, the latter by about a third. This means that delivering the 3080 units of commods that the graphs show will fill much deeper into the dock-side market now than it did in the past. So, while the prices look to be about the same as when the oceans were merged, really, they are still a little higher.

* It is hard to tell from the graphs, but wood prices dipped down from 40PoE/unit to 39.5PoE/unit 3 days before the the fix was put in, but then almost immediately dropped to 37.5PoE/unit after and continued down from there.

* While wood prices have corrected quickly, I think they are the exception. Wood is too bulky to store and it is used in large quantities. On the other hand, you can easily store years worth of herbs/minerals, and it appeared that their prices never fully stabilized to the booched spawn configuration, so I suspect it will take years for it to fully correct.


2010-01-20 trading posts
2011-12-03 jubilee opens
2012-01-31 ocean merger
2012-03-21 reboot exploit closed
2013-09-16 extra swabbies
2014-02-26 spawns fixed


[/quote]
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Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.
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BehindCurtai

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Bump

This seems to be the relevant thread, talking about the commodity spawns, and bid tickets versus merchant spawns.

Here is an idea for a different idea.
Have separate spawn rates for bids and merchants.

What I saw mentioned in this thread: If the people on the far side of the ocean were to try to raise their prices, and it succeeded in raising spawns, it would only generate more stuff at the bid tickets, dropping their price down.

As an alternative, based on my (years old, pre-merger) shop keeping: Have it all be different.

Option 1. All the merchant spawns are determined based on dockside buy prices/shipping distance. All the market spawns are determined based on oceanwide bid pricing. If market pricing goes up, then more merchant-delivered stuff will happen, but not an increase in bid tickets/ player shipping. Equally, if you bid more, you'll increase the delivery rate, without increasing the merchant rate.

Option 2. Each island that has merchants could, for example, look at how much that island's merchants would earn by shipping; each island adjusts spawns locally, with some global factor (nb: the lack of a global factor completely would, I feel, hurt badly.) Ditto for each market. Note that if there's only one market spawning a commodity, or only one merchant source for a commodity, then the "global" factor disappears.

Yes, I know that there is some solution made, and it "sort-of" works, but it's also keeps the "increased spawn rate" global -- it increases markets (dropping prices) as much as merchants, and doesn't help market-dominated commodities (which seemed to be a complaint).
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"We're trying to find the error bars on that number"

Dylan wrote: 
Why buy sham poo when real poo is so readily available

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