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Print at Jun 4, 2020 11:53:40 PM
|Posted by vnork at May 11, 2009 11:22:13 AM|
Re: Conference of the Monarch (Thoughts)
Heh, those three may be sources of bias, but I find it very highly unlikely that they're the only primary sources of bias.
Here's more sources of bias, and ones that would overreport the number of ables. I think all of them are just as strong as the three you gave in your last post.
1. Standings in a puzzle default to able. Ideally, standing would remain empty until the pirate had puzzled enough for a meaningful puzzling standing. When I tried /who-ing people on ships, a large number were novice/able in many piracy stats. This has a huge effect on your data, and there's no easy way to get rid of the effect.
2. You took your data on the weekend. With two blockades scheduled on Viridian, skilled jobbers are more aware of the schedule and likely to budget their puzzling time accordingly.
3. You took your data on the weekend. It's possible that many casual players only play on the weekends, when they have plenty of free time.
4. You took your data on Sunday, I believe. Poker is free on Sunday. Greenies may not have the PoE to use in poker, and are more likely to run out of PoE if they do try. Many established players like to play poker on free days because they perceive that more unskilled players play on free days.
5. Carousing and stall-keeping usually require doubloon sinks, and thus are more accessible to established players, which keeps them on land.
6. Experienced players have more extensive social connections, and crews and flags more suited to their personal tastes. Therefore, they find it more fulfilling to stay on land to chat than the newer pirate.
7. SMHs take longer to load, while green pillages will often sail with 3 people aboard. While a SMH is loading, some jobbers will stay on land until it's close to being filled, to manage stalls or play carousing games. This is much more rare with pillages.
8. SMHs and Flotillas suddenly force all jobbers to land if the voyage is unsuccessful. Also, SMHs and Flotillas spend longer time in between rejobbing periods than pillages, and experienced jobbers will wait on land until they exit the board.
If you collected data where the average pirate was Able, you didn't post it here. Just based on the numbers you posted earlier, the median pirate would be low-to-mid distinguished.
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