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Print at May 31, 2020 11:13:47 AM

Posted by wrs1864b at May 9, 2009 8:29:37 PM
Re: Conference of the Monarch (Thoughts)
Scervy wrote: 
how did this thread deviate from a discussion on whether or not we should hold Monarch meetings again to arguing how to determine the "average" pirate

It goes to the question: Do the monarchs have an accurate perception of what the average pirate is like, or are they biased toward the problems of the elite? If the typical monarch (and forum poster) thinks that they average pirate is about a Master, when it could very easily be that the average pirate is an Able, you can tell that they aren't good representatives.

Duckling wrote: 
1. You used only one point in time. It is unlikely that this is representative of the activities of all pirates. You should have sampled multiple times over different times of the day and days of the week.

I may do that, but I don't think that saturday evening is that out of whack. You don't see a lot of people commenting on how unusual that is.

2. You sampled only pirates on ships. The stats of the pirates in your sample are therefore biased towards the type of voyages out at the time.

Again, that was deliberate because people were explicitly saying that you can't sample the whole population because that doesn't represent jobbers. So, I sampled jobbers. Again, if we want to know the entire population, well, we have that. Able is 50% of the whole population.

3. You sampled from one archipelago only. The activities in different archipelagos can be vastly different at any given time.

On other oceans, yeah, but not so much for Viridian/Cobalt because the archs are very large (only three on the ocean) and laid out to be symmetrical.

4. You got bored and stopped collecting data half way through a frig. If this had been a SMH your results would have been very different had you completed the entire ship.

As I said earlier, I intended to sample about 100 pirates because you really don't need a much larger sample than that to get good results. It was well over 10% of the online population and big enough based on things like the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. Yes, it surprises a lot of people that you can get accurate measurements from when you poll only a few thousand registered voters for a country the size of the USA, but it works.

The only time you considered potential bias, you were wrong. No bias can be introduced by checking ships in alphabetical order since ships are named randomly.

I was wrong? What? I didn't think there would be a bias based off the names, and you are agreeing with me, right? And as I have said a couple of times now, I considered arch bias when I chose Viridian. (That, and Gothmog wanted a green ocean.)
Algol can not assert the truth of all statements in this post and still be consistent.

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