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Print at Mar 30, 2020 1:12:21 AM

Posted by McGarvery at May 8, 2008 1:10:56 AM
Poker Under a Microscope: Why it will NOT kill Malachite
Poker is a redistribution game. This is established.
No poe is created, it just changes hands.

People are afraid that poker will cause poe to move too quickly. This fear is UNFOUNDED.

Here's why.

1. LOW STAKES GAMES - High Skill Skew, But Too Low Impact

When people bet all in at a 2-poe table (200 a hand) this essentially generates a big SCALED risk factor. But in truth, you are not risking very much poe at all.

Each hand won with these all-in bets is worth at most 1800 net poe. Also, you must wait for a winning hand.

A better tactic is to play sharp poker. This can make several thousand per hour, because 2poe tables are notoriously filled with blithering idiots. But not MORE than that... because more money does not flow so quickly onto the poker table. This is not THAT much better than pillaging, and it demands either heavy luck or skill. Different traits, but traits the same.

In essence, although they are the loosest and perhaps most reliable poe source, 2 poe tables don't let you make poe fast enough to compete with jobbing unless you're both very skilled and very aggressive. And in such case, you can also just waste a lot of money.

2. MID STAKES GAMES - Less Skill Skew, more Luck
20 to 200 poe tables can see much more turnover in terms of poe. But in these games, the amount of poe gets to be significant - all ins can be 2 to 20k. Players stop being reckless and may start guarding stashes, hedging their bets and avoiding big risks. This does not prevent poor play, but although you can make 10-100k per hour, now you are facing players who are AFTER that higher rate. As you press up through 200poe to 2000poe tables, the easy money gets smaller and the hard money gets bigger. Your competitors are looking to clean you out...

... it becomes a toss of the dice as skill narrows between players.

Here you can see a couple dozen thousand come your way... or you can lose an entire week-or-two's work in one unlucky hand.
It's hard to force just a random game to pay out constantly.
And the player count is rapidly shrinking.

3. HIGH STAKES GAMES - High Return Rate, Small Player Base

Here, the much-heralded game-bending hands can take place. Hundreds of thousands of PoE changing hands in just one draw.

And how do you get admission?
You need hundreds of thousands of PoE and an iron stomach.

Only those already IN the upper echelons can risk it in the upper echelons. And be ready to face a true shark on the other side of the table. They will remember who you are - there won't be many.

For these reasons, poker is not going to kill the startup of Malachite.

A few lucky players will walk away with a new crew's fund. But generally it's hard to make big amounts unless you already HAD big amounts.

Less than 1% of the poker playing population will get rich quick, and that is no guarantee they will become a game changing force - since only about 1% of the pirates on the ocean have what it takes to lead a flag / captain a lethal crew. Multiply that by the 1% poker winners, and maybe one-hundredth of a percent will be affected.

If Malachite had 10,000 players, maybe one would rise to power through poker alone.

The population sample is too low. Please, post your story of poker success and your huge winnings. Let's see just how far you get.

(Doubloon activity will have a significantly more concentrated impact. Orestes is funding a pay-to-win fleet as we speak, by buying up dubs and leaving. )

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